PL edges down but still leads by 27,000 votes

MaltaToday rolling survey published 23 March | PL 53.3%; PN 44.6%; Others 2.1%

Marginal changes saw the Labour Party edge down in the polls over the past 48 hours, although the changes remain well within the margin of error.

Support for the Nationalist Party edged up but the gap between the two parties remained substantial.

Malta Today’s rolling survey continued to project an increasing turnout, albeit still below the figures for the 2017 general election.

The accumulated results as at 8pm on Tuesday 22 March, showed the Labour Party with 53.3%, a decline of 0.2 points over the previous day, and the PN at 44.6%, an increase of 0.2 points. Third parties collectively registered 2.1%, an increase of 0.1 points. The PL leads the PN by 26,952 votes.

All changes are statistically insignificant since they are well within the margin of error, which stood at 1.9% on a sample base of 2,722.

The share of valid votes projected in MaltaToday’s rolling survey continued to nudge up and stood at 87.1%, an increase of 0.1 points over the previous day.

In 2017, while 92.1% of eligible voters went out to vote, only 90.9% of eligible voters cast a valid vote.

The trust barometer showed Robert Abela with a trust score of 44.1%, an increase of 0.2 points on the previous day. Bernard Grech registered a score of 30.9%, an upward movement of 0.2 points. The trust gap stands at 13 points.

The share of those who trust none of the two leaders or are unsure stood at 25.1%.

What we do

A base survey with a sample size of 597 was released on Sunday 27 February. This survey was carried out between 21 February and 22 March.

Polling will continue everyday between Monday and Friday. The daily tallies will boost the sample size in this rolling survey and enable us to re-calculate the data on progressively larger samples. Results from the last polling day on Friday will be published in the print edition on Sunday.

Care is taken to ensure that daily samples are as representative as they can be of the general population, reflecting gender, age, regional distribution and past voting patterns.

The results based on the accumulated tally comprising the previous day’s results are published at 8:30am on the MaltaToday home page.