MaltaToday Survey | Miriam Dalli pulls ahead as Norman Lowell registers for the first time

The third MaltaToday survey asking people to indicate their first-choice candidate in the forthcoming European election sees the top three candidates consolidate their vote

From l-r: Miriam Dalli, Alfred Sant, Roberta Metsola, Frank Psaila, David Casa, David Casa, and Peter Agius
From l-r: Miriam Dalli, Alfred Sant, Roberta Metsola, Frank Psaila, David Casa, David Casa, and Peter Agius

Miriam Dalli has pulled ahead of fellow European Parliament election candidates with the third survey mapping out voter preferences giving her 11.8% support.

The Labour MEP jumps up three points since the last MaltaToday survey in April, securing the top spot by a significant margin.

She is followed by colleague and MEP, Alfred Sant, who sees his support increase by 0.2 points to secure 8.8% of voter preferences.

Nationalist Party MEP Roberta Metsola retains the third place with 6.4% of voter preferences. She sees her share of the vote increase by more than one percentage point over April.

The survey was held between 25 April and 3 May, coinciding with the election campaign launch of the two major parties.

Dalli, Sant and Metsola are the only candidates to register scores above the margin of error and have been doing so since the first voter preference survey in March. The survey polled people only on their first-choice candidate.

There were 37.5% of respondents who did not know who they would be giving their number one vote to. Although still very high, this is significantly lower than the 49.3% in the April survey who could not indicate a first-choice candidate.

This means that more people have made up their mind over the past month as individual candidate campaigns stepped up a gear.

The survey shows that the PL’s third seat may be a hot contest between Alex Agius Saliba and Josianne Cutajar, who secure 1.7% and 1.4% respectively. They may both make it as MEPs if the PL wins four seats, although this will very much depend on how votes are transferred.

On the PN side, Frank Psaila retains second place behind Metsola with 2.9% of voter preferences but the newcomer experienced a drop of 1.5 points over the April result.

Hot on his heels are incumbent MEP David Casa with 2% of voter preferences and newcomer Peter Agius with 1.8%.

A significant entrant into the rankings is far-right Imperium Europa’s candidate Norman Lowell, who clocks 1.2%. This is the first time that Lowell has featured.

Lowell’s support is predominantly coming from younger males in the Northern region, which includes the localities of St Paul’s Bay and Mellieha.

Labour front runners

Miriam Dalli’s support among women and men is evenly spread. She is the first-choice candidate for 10.5% of women and 12.9% of men.

Dalli also enjoys relatively even support across all age groups. Among those aged 18 to 35, she scores 8.4% and 15% among the elderly.

Her closest Labour rival, Alfred Sant, has the support of 11.1% of men and 6.2% of women. The former prime minister flops among young voters, registering less than a percentage point, but soars among those aged 65 and over with 19.1%.

Dalli also has even support across all regions apart from the Western, where she flounders at 2.8%. In Gozo, Dalli registered 10.5% of voter preferences.

Sant’s support is less pronounced in the northern regions, including Gozo but in the Western region he manages 10.5%.

Of those who voted PL in the last general election, 22% support Dalli and 17.2% Sant.

Nationalist front runners

Roberta Metsola’s support among women is almost double what it is among men. She manages 8.7% of the female vote and 4.4% of the male vote.

She enjoys stronger support among people aged less than 51 and her best showing is in the Western region with 12% and tapers down to 2.1% in the Northern Harbour. In Gozo, Metsola registers 6%.

Frank Psaila’s numbers show that his support is primarily in the Northern region and the Southern Harbour region. He registers no support in Gozo and the South Eastern regions.

More men than women support Psaila, who fares better than Metsola among those aged between 51 and 65.

However, given that Psaila’s overall score is below the margin of error, his numbers have to be interpreted with greater caution.

Among those who voted PN in the last general election, Metsola is the first-choice candidate for 15.7%, more than double Psaila’s at 6.5%.