Malta’s native population set to decline by almost one-seventh by 2050

The native Maltese population is expected to drop by 14% by 2050 and 32% by 2075 if current demographic trends persist, a Central Bank of Malta report suggests.

It concludes that foreign workers will remain essential to address shortages in the labour market, at least in the medium term.

The report, authored by Senior Economist Lynn Cumbo, projects that the number of  Maltese nationals will decline from around 405,000 in 2023 to 347,000 by 2050, and to 275,000 by 2075. At the same time, foreign nationals, who already make up almost a third of Malta’s workforce, are expected to account for nearly half (46%) of the working-age population by 2035.

In 2023, Malta’s total population stood at around 563,000, of which approximately 405,000 were Maltese nationals. Foreign nationals made up 28% of the population and accounted for 31.8% of the working-age population (aged 15–74), up from just 2.5% in 2000.

The use of the term “Maltese native population” in the report refers to the number of Maltese citizens irrespective of ethnicity and is based on the categorisation used by the National Statistics Office, which distinguishes between Maltese citizens and non-Maltese residents in its census updates.

The report acknowledges that its projections do not take in to account a possible increase in the number of naturalisations as a result of foreign workers settling in Malta and becoming natives themselves.

Different scenarios

The report projects that the native Maltese population will decline under all demographic scenarios considered. In the baseline projection, which assumes a gradual convergence of fertility rates to the EU average by 2075, the native population falls to around 347,000 by 2050 and to 275,000 by 2075.

Two other alternative scenarios are also presented in the report.

Scenario 1 maintains fertility rates at 2023 levels (1.22 for Maltese women), resulting in a sharper decline to 309,000 by 2050 and approximately 250,000 by 2075.

Scenario 2 assumes that no Maltese citizens return to the country in future years, accelerating the decline to 305,000 by 2050 and also to approximately 250,000 by 2075.

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Fertility and gender roles

As of 2023, the fertility rate for Maltese women stood at 1.22—far below the replacement level of 2.1 and below an EU average of 1.5.

While recognising that this trend is largely driven by persistently low fertility rates and an ageing population, the report suggests that policies to increase fertility may be constrained by lifestyle changes and challenges in achieving work–life balance, referencing earlier Central Bank research.

The report stresses that efforts to counteract low fertility trends should favour balancing the family and career choices of both men and women, “without undermining the participation of Maltese natives in the labour market”. Moreover, it notes that other countries have succeeded in making women’s family and career choices compatible through family-friendly policies, increased involvement of fathers, a redefinition of gender roles, and greater flexibility in labour markets. “This shows that reversing the downward trend in Malta’s fertility rate may be possible by adopting a similar approach,” the report states.

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Foreign nationals to account for nearly half the workforce

Furthermore, the report projects that foreign nationals will account for an increasingly large share of the labour force. Under baseline assumptions, their share of the working-age population is expected to rise from 30.4% in 2023 to 45.9% by 2035, continuing to grow thereafter.

And while the total working age population is expected to continue increasing at a steady rate reaching a level of almost 510,000 persons by 2075 the number of Maltese persons in the total working age population is expected to fall to about 280,000 persons.

The participation rate of foreign residents is also considerably higher than that of Maltese residents. In 2024, about 87% of foreigners aged 15–74 were in the labour force, compared to around 66% of Maltese nationals. While participation among Maltese women has increased over time, it still lags behind that of men and of foreign women in Malta.

Still, the situation with regard to labour shortages would have been much worse had Malta not seen a strong rise in female participation in the labour market, thanks to government incentives.

By 2024, more than half of women aged between 15 and 74 were active in the labour market, up from a third in 2005. Going forward, the female participation rate is expected to continue rising in the medium term, reaching around 67.0%.  In contrast, the increase in the male participation rate has been much smaller and has actually declined among younger cohorts, due to a decrease in the number of people leaving school at an early age to work.

But who is a Maltese native?

The report which refers to Malta born people as “natives” reflects current trends in which the majority of foreign workers are male and stay in Malta for short periods, with little motivation to become Maltese or raise a family in the country.

Moreover, the share of foreign persons beyond working age remains small because most foreigners in Malta settle for a short period of time to work and then re-migrate.

Furthermore, figures cited in the report do not include foreigners who acquire Maltese citizenship through naturalisation, as this data is not readily available.

The report acknowledges that this may affect population levels in the future, especially if more foreigners remain in Malta for longer periods. Notably, the number of projected births in the report includes only those born to native Maltese women. This excludes a significant number of births to women of foreign nationality residing in Malta—children who grow up in the country and are effectively natives too.

Additionally, the report assumes that the retirement age will not increase beyond 65. However, it notes that improvements in the health of older individuals and working environments requiring less physical effort “could entice more persons to remain longer in employment, even in the absence of an increase in the pension age”.

Moreover, technological advancements in digitalisation and artificial intelligence could reduce the need for steep increases in the labour supply to sustain economic growth.

Nevertheless, the report concludes that the growth in both Malta’s working-age population and labour supply “is expected to be fully driven by the number of foreign nationals and their high participation in the labour market”. This is likely to lead to “challenging choices” on how to increase the labour supply to keep pace with a growing economy—especially since sustaining recent population growth into the foreseeable future will likely require further investment in the country’s infrastructure.