Analysis | Gonzi vs Anonymous

Facing no rival contestant, Gonzi will be battling against anonymous councillors who may well smile at him and applaud him in public... but still turn their daggers against him in the secret ballot on Saturday.

Probably this is a very calculated risk for Gonzi, in view of the perceived loyalty of councillors towards the leadership especially at a time when the party could find itself facing an early election.

But a risk exists that a sizeable number of councillors will either vote against him or abstain. Probably it will be easier for councillors to vote against than to abstain, for while the former will retain their anonymity, those abstaining will be noted. 

Since nobody has challenged Gonzi for the post, the secret ballot will simply register the level of support Gonzi enjoys among the party faithful. One problem for Gonzi is that while everybody expects him to surpass the two-thirds majority of votes cast he requires according to the party statute, there is no clear yardstick to measure what would constitute a political success in next Saturday's vote.

The only yardstick which one can use to calculate Gonzi's level of support is to compare it with the level of support Gonzi enjoyed in the final round of the 2004 contest.

In the last round of the 2004 leadership contest - after John Dalli withdrew from the race and Louis Galea was eliminated - Gonzi gained 808 votes from the 859 cast, i.e. 94% of votes cast.

But circumstances were very different at the time, when Gonzi had just been elected to the leadership following a divisive leadership contest. After a real contest between candidates, councillors are expected to send a message of unity by endorsing the winner.

But this time round Gonzi is facing councillors after eight years as the country's Prime Minister and after three years characterised by backbench troubles, which culminated in Franco Debono's rebellion.

Different scenarios

Gonzi's performance in Saturday's vote will be assessed according to the number of councillors who deny him their vote. The scenarios range from the most unlikely one in which Gonzi fails to garner the statutory 66% of votes cast to the more likely plebiscite confirming him as undisputed party leader. But for Gonzi, of the five possible scenarios, the only satisfactory result would be a plebiscite in which he garners more than 90%.

1. Gonzi fails to garner two thirds of the votes cast

Technically the PN's statute foresees a second round in the case a candidate does not garner a two-thirds majority in the first round. But this is normally done after a first round which includes a plurality of candidates. 

But in this case where Lawrence Gonzi is standing alone, failure to meet the statutory requirement in the first round would be a political failure. In this case Gonzi would have little choice but to resign and pave the way for a real leadership contest between rival candidates.

Yet, it is extremely unlikely that a third of councillors would vote against the party leader. 

2. Gonzi scrapes through the two thirds of votes cast but fails to garner two thirds of the total number of councillors

While Gonzi would retain the leadership, his ability to keep the party united would be in serious doubt if he fails to garner the support of at least two thirds of the total number of councillors.

Moreover, Gonzi's position will be seriously damaged if more than 25% of the PN's councillors refrain from supporting him. Rather than resolving the current impasse in parliament, such an unexpected result could well provoke further rebellions in the parliamentary ranks. Debono might well interpret this result as a demonstration of widespread support within the party.

It could also provoke a serious leadership challenge to Gonzi as a way of saving the party's fortunes in the face of an imminent general election.  In such a scenario Gonzi himself could decide to call it a day and a real contest between rival candidates will ensue. For if Gonzi stays on despite having lost the support of a considerable number of councillors, the party's chances of recovering lost support in the country would be minimal.

3. Gonzi gets more than two thirds of total number of councillors but opposition runs into double-digit figures.

Such a scenario will confirm that Gonzi does not enjoy the support of a restricted segment of the party. Most probably this will not result in any direct challenge to Gonzi's leadership. Still this scenario is likely to weaken rather than strengthen Gonzi who would have been denied the plebiscite, which he now needs to reunite the party behind him. Neither will such a result quell dissent in the backbench. Such a result will be interpreted by Debono as a sign that he still enjoys some support in the party but not enough to push him to vote against the government in parliament. Deprived of a plebiscite Gonzi would be more reluctant to go to the polls. Probably the outcome of having 10-20% of delegates voting against Gonzi would be prolonged instability for the country and a prolongation of the current impasse in parliament. Anything above 20% could be even more devastating.

4. Gonzi gets a plebiscite of more than 90% of delegates

Such a scenario would show that Debono is completely isolated in the party and that Gonzi is the unquestioned leader of the Nationalist Party. This would not solve the current impasse in parliament, which ultimately depends on Debono's vote as an MP and not as a party member. But it could strengthen Gonzi's hand in his dealings with the rebel MP.

Such a result could also quell further dissent in the party, allowing Gonzi to focus all his energy on winning back support lost in the past years.  Those who persist in calling his leadership in question despite the result would not just be questioning Gonzi but the wisdom of party councillors. If Debono is brought back in to the fold, the government may well complete the legislature but the government will be in election mode.

If Debono refuses to support the government, Gonzi would be in a stronger position to face an election as the undisputed leader of the PN.