Despite Libyan crisis, Muscat still ahead of Gonzi

A widespread appreciation for the role of the Prime Minister during the ongoing crisis in Libya has not significantly eroded the trust gap between Lawrence Gonzi and Joseph Muscat, who is leading the trust polls by 10 percentage points.

The survey shows the trust rating for both leaders increasing: Gonzi’s by 4.4 points, and Muscat’s by 2.9 points. And those who did not trust either have gone down by six points.

This could reflect widespread satisfaction with the way both leaders handled the crisis, however it is clear that Gonzi scores more points (68.8%) than Muscat(64%) on this front. Indeed, the Opposition adopted a low profile throughout the crisis, declaring approval of the government’s position while keeping absent from media controversy and stopping short of a condemnation of the Gaddafi regime.

Yet despite this low-key approach, Muscat’s position was also deemed positive by 64% of those who voted for the PN in the last general elections.

On the other hand Gonzi, who had a more visible role throughout the crisis, assumed a leadership role in evacuation efforts, and won on TV coverage with more Nationalist exponents winning visibility on the Libyan crisis, had his performance deemed positive by 54% of Labour voters.

What is significant is that 20% of Labour voters replied “don’t know” when asked whether they agreed or not with Muscat’s position: a result which probably reflects the low-key approach of Labour.

Gonzi’s role on the other hand saw him shoring up the Nationalist vote. The PN saw its support rise from 15% to 23% when respondents were asked who they would vote for in an election held tomorrow. Significantly, those who said they voted PN in 2008 increased by eight (8) points in saying they would vote for the PN again (over the last MaltaToday survey in February). And this comes in the wake of a 13-point decrease in PN voters who in the previous survey declared they would not vote for the party again.

Taking only the cohort of the 2008 PN voters, the PN has consolidated its sway on voters by eight points (up 63% from 55%) – but Labour registers a 3% loss of its 2008 voters to the PN this time.

Still, Labour has seen a similar consolidation, with its support increasing by 6 points in the past month and it retains its consistent core-vote, with a staggering 91% of its 2008 voters still intent on voting Labour next time.

Green party Alternattiva Demokratika, the most vociferous anti-Gaddafi party throughout the crisis, has edged closer to the 2% mark. The survey also shows a 3% shift from those who voted PN in 2008, to AD.

The survey also shows Libya emerging as the second top concern of the Maltese people, second only to the cost of living. This was accompanied by a drop in concern on divorce, Air Malta and utility bills. The only other concern to increase significantly is that on the price of petrol. Concern on immigration has also increased slightly from last month.

Main findings

 - 69% give positive assessment to Gonzi’s handling of Libya crisis, 64% to Muscat but 22% are undecided on Muscat’s position on Libya.

 - Gonzi’s trust rating increases by 4 points, Muscat’s trust rating increases by 3 points

10 points still separate the two leaders in trust ratings, down a single point since last month.

 - Support for PN rises by 8 points, PL support rises by 6 points.

 - Percentage of PN voters in 2008 who would vote PN again rises by 8 points, PN voters who would not vote decreases by 13 points.

 - Libya rises to second top concern of Maltese while concern on divorce and utility bills falls.

Methodology

The survey was conducted between Monday 7 and Thursday 10 March. 502 persons were contacted by telephone after being randomly selected from telephone directories. 300 accepted to participate.  The results were weighed to reflect the age and sex distribution of the population.  The survey has a margin of error of +/-5.7%.