Bull in a china shop: What a second Trump presidency means for the world

Polls in the United States show the difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within the margin of error in seven crucial swing states, making the American race to the White House impossible to predict.

And yet, former US President Donald Trump has since caught up with latecomer Kamala Harris, who entered the race after incumbent Joe Biden floundered in a first presidential TV debate.

Despite energising the Democratic base with a star-studded coalition of supporters, Harris’s brief surge in the polls now appears to have failed to outsmart Trump, who has even built a small lead in key swing states.

Given that Trump lost by a whisker in 2020 despite polls showing Biden with a stronger national lead than Harris currently enjoys (+4 points compared to less than a point), the likelihood of a second, unrestrained Trump presidency has increased. One main reason for Trump’s domestic success is that he projects himself as the change candidate at a time when the future looks bleak, especially for the demographics he courts.

But what would his victory mean for the world and for the European Union in particular?

Vladimir Putin

Strongmen like Putin will feel emboldened

Trump’s highly personalised ‘diplomacy’ –  arm-twisting, unpredictable tweets directed at other world leaders, and his chemistry with fellow strongmen – could further erode the notion of multilateralism, which runs counter to an ‘America First’ approach.

This approach could also weaken NATO, which Trump may sidestep in favour of direct dealings with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Such an approach might lead to an understanding that could defuse tensions and reduce the risk of nuclear conflict. However, this could come at a price: Russia might be rewarded for its aggression, with Ukraine paying in terms of territory. Furthermore, Trump may be outsmarted by Putin, whose appetite grows with each concession made to him.

Trump claims Putin would not have risked attacking Ukraine if he were in the White House, implying that he would have dissuaded him from doing so by simply talking him out of it. But this implies that his foreign policy would be dictated by personal chemistry with strongmen.

And it may well lead to a more volatile world where deals between powerful leaders take precedence over long-standing alliances and international law. Although Trump positions himself as a non-interventionist, wary of committing the US to foreign wars, his aggressive stance towards China and Iran could ignite geopolitical tensions.

In short, electing Trump may unleash a raging bull in a china shop. However, like any previous president, he could be restrained by state officials and staff, as was often the case during his first term. The concern is that this time round Trump may be more inclined to weaken these checks and balances.

Netanyahu will find it easier to finish what he started under Biden

Benjamin Netanyahu

During the current Middle East war Trump praised Benjamin Netanyahu for doing “a good job” and criticised Biden for holding him back. He suggested that the Gaza Strip would make excellent beachfront property for development. Reportedly calling on Netanyahu to finish the war before he take office in January, a Trump administration is expected to give Israel a freer hand in maintaining a permanent presence in Gaza.

But lately Trump, who previously enacted an executive order banning people from six Muslim-majority countries, has opportunistically tapped into discontent over Gaza, without ever criticising Israel, by opportunistically courting conservative Islamic clerics in Michigan, a swing state with a large Muslim community.

In this sense, Harris’s attempt to attract Republican voters by aligning with figures like Dick Cheney, an architect of the Iraq invasion, has made it easier to depict Harris as a warmonger.

Trump’s transphobic messaging has also resonated with segments of conservative Muslim voters.

But his pro-Israel stance is conditional on Jewish loyalty: to the extent that he has repeatedly rebuked Jewish voters who support Democrats despite his strong support for Israel. And curiously Trump has only fallen out with Netanyahu once after the Israeli PM had congratulated Biden upon his 2020 election victory.

Trump could also claim that he was closer than Biden to brokering an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, likely due to his chemistry with both Netanyahu and King Salman.

Yet by sidelining Palestinian interests, this rapprochement has contributed to despair in Palestinian territories, which erupted in the October massacre.

Saudi Arabia has clarified it would not recognise Israel without a Palestinian state, a condition Trump disregarded by recognising Jerusalem, including the occupied half, as Israel’s capital in 2020 – a step opposed by previous US presidents.

Netanyahu, emboldened by Trump, may feel encouraged to complete his agenda: the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and areas in the West Bank earmarked for settlers. But Trump will expect eternal gratitude from Israel and Jewish voters for doing so.

Successful Trumpism will boost the far right and weaken the EU

Despite Trump’s isolationism, ‘Trumpism’ has become a global phenomenon, amplified by major influencers, male YouTubers, and global media figures like billionaire Elon Musk, who recently clashed with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer over comments linked to racial tensions. Trump also enjoys admiration from far-right leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who may feel emboldened to challenge the centrist consensus in Brussels.

By pressuring EU member states to increase their NATO contributions and potentially forcing them to assume full responsibility for Ukraine, Trump could push the EU to a breaking point as electorates grow weary of the perceived burden.

Moreover, pragmatic right-wing leaders like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni may assert themselves more independently of EU and NATO obligations. While Trump is not responsible for the rise of the far right in Europe – driven largely by left-behind communities feeling a loss of control – a Trump victory could further normalise extremist discourse, from mass deportations to climate denial and crackdowns on “the enemy within”.

A new right-wing consensus is unlikely to foster deeper cooperation between similarly-minded governments, as national interests could prevent consensus on contentious issues like tariffs, with Trump likely to penalise European companies.

Trump has denied humanity’s greatest threat: global warming

During the campaign, Trump dismissed climate change as “one of the great scams of all time” and sarcastically remarked that rising sea levels would create “more oceanfront property.”

He pledged to maximise oil and gas production within the US, aiming for energy self-sufficiency while reversing the renewable energy push of the Biden administration.

If re-elected, Trump would likely withdraw from the Paris climate agreement again. His focus on tariffs could also penalise clean energy imports into the US.

Crucially, US disengagement from climate treaties might encourage other countries to follow suit.