Europe on the brink

I am sad. I am sad that Europe seems to be drifting back in time. In recent times I have found myself at odds with the current direction taken by the European Union, especially in its handling of the refugee issue and they way it humiliated Greece.

But this was more telling of the current crop of elected EU politicians who took these decisions. Those who lambast the EU for not being democratic are often the first to use the whip against the weak and the vulnerable.

Surely it might not be the end of the world. The UK (or what will remain of it after probable Irish and Scottish referendums) will renegotiate a treaty with the EU.

The Tory establishment will probably try to get a bargain; chipping off those parts of EU social, human rights and environmental legislation which they resent and get back to business. This was always the name of the game; pick and choose what is beneficial to the establishment while discarding what benefits the normal working people.

Far-right leader Nigel Farage will still find his political space, condemning any such agreement as being not enough while lashing at migrants. This could be more of the same.

Still there is another scenario. History is not a rational process. Symbolic moments have a powerful impact. This may be one of them. The English example could spread.

The EU may become more bullish in order to defend itself from implosion. Moreover the UK is not Norway, which negotiated a deal (which makes it accept most of the consequences of membership without having a say in decisions) without ever being a member. 

. In reality this is a victory of the right-wing of the Tory party represented by Boris Johnson and a victory of Murdoch's media empire

The UK – a major protagonist in European history – is actually leaving. For if the EU offers the UK an easy alternative to membership it may soon find itself doing the same with other rotten apples like Hungary and Poland whose elected leaders are throwback to the inter-war period. 

While Farage stands as a dark reminder of the 1930s, the geopolitics involved look like a throwback to the early modern age: competing nation states animated by religious fervour, scrambling for supremacy at the death throes of the Holy Roman Empire.

And what are the consequences of re-enacting the border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland? Will this reignite the flames of the last bloody civil war fought in western Europe brought to an end by the Good Friday agreements or will it lead to a peaceful reunification? 

And will Scotland once again drift back to the continent, leaving little England even smaller?

Put bluntly, the EU with all its weaknesses and democratic deficits has also brought peace in a continent ravished by centuries of wars.  It also made it easier for small nations and regions to affirm their identity without threatening the stability of the continent.

While the EU is imperfect, the world outside is a cold place where people are expected to work like beasts and where democracy is more of a facade for autocracy and oligarchy

Although weakened by the neo-liberal onslaught, the European social model represented a beacon of hope in a world dominated by increasingly authoritarian state formations which trample on democratic and social rights. 

Truly the austerity model and the pushback of migrants to Turkey has blurred the lines, making the EU less European. While the EU is imperfect, with some exceptions like Norway and Canada, the world outside the EU is a cold place where people are expected to work like beasts, have less time for themselves and their families, and where democracy is more of a facade for autocracy and oligarchy.

What is really irksome is the depiction of the referendum as a victory of the people against the establishment. In reality this is a victory of the right-wing of the Tory party represented by Boris Johnson and a victory of Murdoch's media empire. If Murdoch and Johnson are anti-establishment I might well be living in a parallel universe.

Surely it was a vote by proxy by working class communities devastated by austerity and distant economic and political elites. Education and age were also important factors. Let us not forget that a vast majority of young people who also taken the brunt of austerity have also voted to remain. It was a great pity that the Remain campaign was reluctant in fighting a battle for hearts and minds, based on values, rather than a fear of market failure in case of Brexit. 

In the end it all boiled down to motivation. Probably the majority wanted to remain. But those who wanted to leave had a greater motivation to go out and vote. What is sure is that over the next months the rest of Europe will have to undergo a lot of soul-searching. 

The stark choice will be between a diluted Europe where each nation will be prey to a global market increasingly dominated by pirate capitalism and a stronger, more united, more democratic Europe where taxes and social rights are also harmonised. 

Those making the case for Europe must do so passionately. The only silver lining is that Brexit weakens the lobby of those nation states which stand in the way of these reforms.