PN holds narrow lead over Labour, Malta Independent survey shows

If an election were to take place tomorrow, the Nationalist Party (PN) would secure a slight 0.4% lead over the Labour Party (PL),  according to recent data obtained from The Malta Independent survey.

This margin, equivalent to approximately 1,500 votes, mirrors the margin by which the PN emerged victorious in the 2008 general election.

The results are similar to the survey findings published by MaltaToday when, for the first time in 15 years, the Nationalist Party was ahead of the Labour Party in the polls, albeit by less than a percentage point.

The MaltaToday July survey showed support for the PN standing at 30.2% against the PL’s 29.6%. 

The Malta Independent survey, conducted between September 1 and 8 online, polled 1,600 respondents under the supervision of IDEA Intelligence, the administrators of maltasurvey.com. Online advertisements were shown on social media platforms and all participants opted to take part voluntarily

This period coincided with the eruption of a benefits fraud scandal, which came to public attention on September 3. It is expected that the fallout from this scandal may have influenced the survey results.

The PN was found to have the support of 35.3% of respondents, while 34.9% expressed their preference for the PL. 

The ADPD garnered 4.9% of respondents’ support, a notable increase from its 1.3% share in the previous year. 

Additionally, 4.7% mentioned other smaller political parties, while 15.8% indicated they would abstain from voting, and 4.4% remained undecided.

Respondents were also asked about their voting choices in the previous year's election. 

The survey showed an overrepresentation of PL voters, constituting 49.5% of respondents, compared to the 45.8% share of all registered voters (including non-voters) that the party received in the last election.

Only 67.9% of PL voters confirmed their intention to vote for the party again, while 79.3% of PN voters expressed their readiness to support their party once more.

A regional breakdown of the survey revealed that the PL was facing significant challenges in Gozo, where it previously secured the popular vote in the last two general elections. 

Despite the PN leading in the survey results, the trust survey showed that Prime Minister Robert Abela was more trusted by the respondents than PN leader Bernard Grech. 

Of the respondents, 36% expressed trust in Abela, which was higher than the percentage indicating they would vote for the PL. In contrast, 27.1% placed their trust in Grech. 

Abela received greater trust ratings in the MaltaToday poll compared to the survey conducted by the Malta Independent. This difference stems from the fact that, while only 29.6% intend to vote for the Labour Party in the MaltaToday survey, 39.2% expressed trust in Abela himself.

This indicated that the Prime Minister is approximately 10 points more favored than his political party. In contrast, while 30.2% will vote PN, Grech trails his party by 3.4 points.

Respondents were also given the option to express trust in ADPD chairperson Sandra Gauci, with 7.8% choosing this option, while 29.1% indicated they trusted none of the party leaders.