MaltaToday survey: Labour strengthens lead despite record abstentions

A survey carried out by MaltaToday over the past two weeks shows the Labour Party consolidating its lead over the PN.  

Overall findings show that the PL enjoys the support of 47.3%, a decrease of 1.7 points over November, and the PN stands at 43.1%, a decrease of 2.3 points from last month.

Although both parties have shed votes from last month, amidst an increase of support for third parties, Labour has widened its lead from 3.6 points in November to 4.2 points now.  

Based on a turnout of 69.8% this would translate to a numerical advantage of 10,352 votes up from 8,827 votes last month. The turnout here refers to valid votes cast as a percentage of all eligible voters. 

While this suggests that Labour has shed a considerable amount of support since the 2022 General Election when it commanded a 14-point lead, the survey confirms Labour’s post budget recovery after a survey in October showed the PN leading by a whisker.

The survey also shows that the percentage of non-voters has remained practically the same as last month (30.2%) while support for third parties has increased from 5.6% in November to 9.6% now.

The consolidation in support for Labour comes in the aftermath of a socially oriented budget and a more concerted effort to address the concerns of disgruntled Labour voters. 

But this has not stopped the haemorrhage of 2022 Labour voters - 33.9% of which will not vote if an election is held now, up from 26% in November.

Labour’s voting retention problem

In fact, Labour only manages to retain 60.3% of its voters in 2022, down from 61.1% last month. On the other hand, the PN retains 64.7% of its voters, down from 66.8% in November.

Once again rather than shifting to other parties, most disgruntled Labour voters are registering their protest by abstaining.

In fact, only 0.4% of Labour voters in 2022 opt for a third party compared to 9.6% of PN voters. But Labour voters are slightly keener on switching to the Opposition. While 5.4% of Labour voters in 2022 switch to the PN, 3.6% of PN voters switch to Labour. 

But the survey also shows both parties losing to abstention. But while 33.9% of Labour voters in 2022 - the largest ever in a MaltaToday survey - will abstain, a considerable 22% of PN voters would also abstain.

Mid income earners most likely not to vote

A breakdown by declared income shows that abstention is lowest among those earning over €4,000 a month (23%) and peaks among those earning between €1,000 and €2,000 a month (32.9%), and among those earning between €2,000 and €3,000 monthly (32.7%). 

This suggests that disgruntlement with the political class is stronger among middle income earners whose purchasing power is impacted by rising inflation. Support for third parties also peaks among those earning €2,000 and €3,000 a month (10.8%).

The findings show Labour leading in all categories except among those earning between €3,000 and €4,000 a month, among which the PN leads by a whisker.

In contrast, Labour enjoys its highest levels of support at both ends of the spectrum; among both those earning less than €1,000 a month (36.5%) and among those earning more than €4,000 a month (38.3%).

PL leads among over 50s

A breakdown by age shows the PL leading the PN by 5 points among both 51- to 65-year-olds and over 65-year-olds. But the two parties are practically level among 16- to 35-year-olds and 36- to 50-year-olds, two categories which include the highest percentage of non-voters. In both categories non-voters outnumber both PL and PN voters.

North-south divide

Regionally, the largest percentage of non-voters is found in the politically nuanced Western region (37.7%) and the Labour-leaning South-Eastern region (33.7%). 

The survey shows Labour leading the PN in the South Harbour region, the South Eastern region and Western region while the PN is leading in the North Harbour, the Northern region and Gozo. Support for third parties is highest in the North Harbour region (8.4%).  

For the first time the survey shows non-voters (33%) outnumbering both PN (31.8%) and PL voters (28.4%) in Gozo.

Post-secondary blues

A breakdown by educational level attained shows Labour leading in all categories except the tertiary educated where the PN leads by 10 points. In a further indication of disgruntlement among the lower middle class, the largest percentage of non-voters is found among respondents with a post-secondary level of education, a category which includes people with a technical and vocational educational background. 

In this category where Labour now enjoys a fragile 2-point lead, non-voters constitute a relative majority of 37.6%.  The survey shows third party voters peaking at 10.7% among respondents with a university degree and at 7.7% among the post-secondary educated. 

Abela leads by 16 points but 41% trust neither leader

The survey shows Prime Minister Robert Abela increasing his trust lead over Opposition leader Bernard Grech by two points.

Bernard Grech has seen his trust rating drop by 2.5 points, compared to last month’s MaltaToday survey. On the other hand, the Prime Minister’s trust rating has dipped by half a percentage point. 

This means that the gap between the two leaders has increased from 14.4 points last month, to 16.4 points now.

But the survey now shows that a relative majority of 41.3% trust neither of the two political leaders. The percentage of respondents who distrust both leaders has increased by 2.9 points since last month.

44.4% of PN voters distrust Grech 

Moreover, in a sign that Bernard Grech’s leadership remains on shaky ground, a staggering 42.3% of PN voters in the 2022 general election, trust neither of the two political leaders while a further 2.2% trust Abela. This means that Grech is only trusted by 55.6% of PN voters in the 2022 general election.

Even among respondents who currently intend voting PN, a substantial 32.5% trust neither Grech nor Abela.

Grech’s poor trust rating suggests that he remains his party’s weakest link in contrast to Abela who is trusted by 70.6% of PL voters in 2022 and by 83.4% of current PL voters. 

Moreover, Grech remains less trusted than Abela in the crucial category of current non-voters.  In this category while 24.3% trust Abela only 2.9% trust Grech. 

This means that Labour may have more room for future growth among this category then the PN.

Still, despite retaining a substantial lead over Grech, the situation is far from rosy for Abela, who is still distrusted by a substantial 27.7% of Labour voters in 2022, as was the case last month.  Moreover 15.9% of current Labour voters trust neither of the two leaders.

Distrust of leaders highest among middle income earners

The survey shows that the highest percentage of respondents who trust neither of the two leaders is found among those earning between €2,000 and €3,000 a month. In this category a remarkable 56.2% trust neither of the two leaders.

These are followed by those earning a monthly income of between €1,000 and €2,000, among which 44.5% trust neither leader. Lower levels of distrust are registered by those earning less than €1,000 a month (34.9%), those earning between €3,000 and €4,000 a month (36.2%) and those earning more than €4,000 a month (39.6%).

This suggests that distrust in the political establishment is highest among those in the middle-income brackets. This tallies with high levels of distrust among both post-secondary educated and tertiary educated voters, among which over 52% trust neither leader.

Both the Prime Minister and the Opposition leader register their lowest trust rating among those earning between €2,000 and €3,000 a month, among which Abela is trusted by 31.5% and Grech by just 12.3%. But while Abela is most trusted by those earning less than €1,000 (39.3%) Grech gets his best rating among those earning between €3,000 and €4,000 (27.6%).

Majority of young voters distrust both leaders

Like last month, the survey shows a higher level of distrust in the two leaders among the 16- to 35-year-olds (52.9%) and those aged between 36 and 50 (49.2%). But the current survey shows an increase in distrust among those aged between 51 and 65, among which those who distrust both leaders have increased from 37.1% to 49.2%.  

Both leaders enjoy their higher trust rating among over 65-year-olds, where only 17.9% distrust both leaders.   

Compared to last month Abela has seen his trust rating improve by 4 points among 16- to 35-year-olds and by 4.8 points among those aged 36 to 50.  On the other hand, Grech gained 3 points among over 65-year-olds.

Abela leads in all regions

A relative majority of respondents in four regions, namely the Northern Harbour (38.1%), the Western region (47%), the Northern region (42.4%) and Gozo (49.2%), trust neither of the two leaders.  

As was the case last month, Abela enjoys a lead over Grech in all six regions. But his level of trust varies from just 32.6% in the North Harbour region to 48.4% in the South Harbour district. 

Grech’s worst performance is in the South-eastern region, where he enjoys the trust of only 13.5% of respondents. 

Methodology

The survey was carried between 28 November 2023 and 6 December 2023 for which 650 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, gender and age was used. A fraction of those who opted to complete the survey chose not to answer a few of the questions for which they are treated as missing values. Missing values analysis was then carried to determine the type of technique to replace the values. A combination of logistic and linear regression with predictive mean matching where applicable was used to replace certain missing values completing and enlarging the sample set from which the final results were extracted.

The margin of error for this result 3.84% for a confidence interval of 95%.