The big red blotch: Will the PN manage to dent Labour’s dominance in local elections?

Local elections five years ago delivered a map of Malta that was a big red blotch with a few sprinkles of blue.

The map showed an advancing sea of red as the Labour Party managed to overturn previous Nationalist Party majorities in Siggiewi, Valletta, Mosta, St Paul’s Bay and San Gwann. With a 70-vote advantage, the PL won Siġġiewi for the first time since local elections started being held in the mid-1990s.

The final result saw the Labour Party obtain absolute majorities in 47 localities, and a relative majority in two councils. The Nationalist Party obtained an absolute majority in 17 localities and a relative majority in one other council.

The final outcome saw 73% of all localities in which an election was held giving the PL a majority of votes. No election was held in Mdina, where the number of candidates contesting the election equalled the number of council seats and thus were elected automatically.

A population breakdown of the 2019 results shows that PL-majority local governments are responsible for 402,427 people living in their respective localities. PN-majority councils govern over 116,942 people (Photo: James Bianchi/MaltaToday)

A population breakdown of the 2019 results shows that PL-majority local governments are responsible for 402,427 people living in their respective localities. PN-majority councils govern over 116,942 people.

Four independent candidates managed to break the two-party stranglehold on councils by getting elected with strong results.

In Għarb two independent candidates got elected to hold the balance of power in a five-seat council. In the same locality, Labour elected two councillors while the PN only elected one. In voting terms, the PL won a relative majority.

In Żebbuġ (Gozo), one independent candidate scored an impressive 38.7% of first count votes to get elected and hold the balance of power on the council. The PN won a relative majority of votes.

In Ħaż-Żebbuġ, an independent candidate obtained 12.4% on the first count and got elected. This locality saw the PL obtain an absolute majority.

With polling at a national level showing that the PL still enjoys very strong support, it is highly unlikely that the local election results in June will deliver any notable surprises.

But voter behaviour in local elections may not entirely depend on traditional allegiances or national concerns. Local issues can also influence how people vote as does the personality of candidates contesting the election.

Within this context, eyes will be cast on some key localities that are expected to be battlegrounds that will test the PN’s ability to stage a credible fightback.

THE BIG BATTLEGROUNDS

St Paul’s Bay

Population: 32,042

2019 votes: PL 50.1% (4,016), PN 42.8% (3,432), Other parties 4.4% (355), Ind. 2.6% (209)

2019 councillors: PL 7, PN 6

St Paul’s Bay is a particular locality that has not only grown exponentially to become Malta’s largest town but has historically registered the biggest abstention rate in local elections. The particular dynamics of this locality mean that none of the two major parties have a secure hold on voters. Since 2008, the council has swung back and forth between the PN and the PL. Five years ago, the PL just managed an absolute majority that translated into a 584-vote advantage over the Nationalist Party. Four years earlier, in 2015, the PN had obtained a relative majority, beating the PL by a mere 62 votes. The change in population means that St Paul’s Bay keeps receiving people from diverse backgrounds making it difficult to assess how voters will behave. If history repeats itself, the cycle of swings should see the PN win back the council. But the PL will not go down without a fight and having convinced popular incumbent mayor Alfred Grima to reverse his decision not to contest, the party is well-placed to retain its majority.

Mosta

Population: 23,482

2019 votes: PL 51.4% (6,150), PN 48.6% (5,809)

2019 councillors: PL 7, PN 6

Mosta was one of the PL’s biggest catches in 2019, have wrested control from the PN that had obtained an absolute majority back in 2015. Five years ago, the PL forged ahead with 341 votes more than the PN. The Opposition party will try to capitalise on the widespread disgruntlement in the community over the protracted roadworks around the parish church, including the paving of the main square, which dragged on for many months.

The PN lost dominance in Birkirkara in 2013 when the PL obtained a barebones absolute majority to end up with a mere 127 votes ahead of its rival (Photo: James Bianchi/MaltaToday)

However, both parties may yet be punished for having supported the uprooting of ficus trees alongside the church, a saga that ended with the council making an about turn after activists stopped the works. Although, it is not impossible for the PN to retake Mosta, it is far from a forgone conclusion since the PL is in no mood to concede ground without a fight.

Mellieha

Population: 12,738

2019 votes: PL 48.5% (2,843), PN 47.2% (2,766), AD 4.4% (258)

2019 councillors: PL 5, PN 4

The PL won the election by a very slim relative majority in 2019. It only just managed to scrape ahead with 77 votes more than the PN. In 2013, the PL had obtained an absolute majority of 52.3% and 279 votes more than the PN. The very narrow margin of defeat five years ago gives the PN hope that it can overturn the result in June. However, we have to go back 25 years to find the first instance when the PN managed to obtain more votes than Labour. Indeed, in 1999, the PN won by a relative majority in an election that saw almost 300 votes go to two independent candidates. The 2008 election created a quirk since although the PL obtained an absolute majority of votes, the PN obtained a majority of councillors and thus administered the locality for five years. The question is will Mellieha swing back to the PN or will the PL manage to recover the ground lost five years ago and secure a stronger majority?

San Gwann

Population: 14,244

2019 votes: PL 50.6% (3,489), PN 49.4% (3,402)

2019 councillors: PL 5, PN 4

San Gwann has experienced several swings between the two major parties over the years with the PL regaining the upper hand by a mere 87 votes in 2019 to install its mayor (Photo: James Bianchi/MaltaToday)

San Gwann has experienced several swings between the two major parties over the years with the PL regaining the upper hand by a mere 87 votes in 2019 to install its mayor. The result vindicated the election outcome six years earlier when despite winning a majority of votes, the PL elected a minority of seats thus failing to push the PN off the perch. Like Siggiewi, the San Gwann council election is expected to be a major battleground in June.

Although losing one of its popular councillors, David Dalli, who died last year, the PN will try to wrest back control of the San Gwann council.  However, the PN’s mission is complicated by the popularity of incumbent mayor Trevor Fenech, something the PL will undoubtedly capitalise on. But the PL will also try to milk the national government’s project to sink San Gwann’s main road underground and create a public open space above it.  In these circumstances, the PL is likely to remain the majority party.

Birkirkara

Population: 25,807

2019 votes: PL 52.2% (6,911), PN 43.7% (5,777), AD 2.8% (374), Others 1.3% (168)

2019 councillors: PL 7, PN 6

The PN lost dominance in Birkirkara in 2013 when the PL obtained a barebones absolute majority to end up with a mere 127 votes ahead of its rival (Photo: James Bianchi/MaltaToday)

The PN trailed the PL by 1,134 votes in 2019. However, that election also saw 542 votes that collectively went to Alternattiva Demokratika and the now defunct political parties, Partit Demokratiku and Moviment Patrijotti Maltin. The PN will try to capitalise on this third-party vote to increase its tally but a former Labour councillor who will be running as an independent this time around could complicate matters for everyone. Additionally, it is not yet known whether ADPD will have a candidate in the running.

In the past, Birkirkara did elect ADPD councillors. The PN lost dominance in Birkirkara in 2013 when the PL obtained a barebones absolute majority to end up with a mere 127 votes ahead of its rival. But the dye had been cast in 2009 when the Nationalists only managed a relative majority, ending 209 votes ahead of the PL. The PL will want to retain Malta’s second largest locality after the progressive advances it has been making since 2009 but we could expect the PN to put up a fight and try to win back Birkirkara.

Valletta

Population: 5,157

2019 votes: PL 53% (1,884), PN 45.9% (1,632), Other parties 1% (37)

Labouris likely to retain control in Valletta; however, its efforts could be hampered by the eternal cold war between incumbent mayor Alfred Zammit (pictured) and party rival Raymond Azzopardi (Photo: James Bianchi/MaltaToday)

2019 councillors: PL 4, PN 3

Valletta was always the dominant territory of the PN until five years ago when the PL managed to obtain an absolute majority that translated into a 252-vote advantage.

The PL’s victory in 2019 may not have come as a complete surprise since the PN’s share of the vote in the capital had been declining steadily since 2002. The PN will want to regain its former glory but the road is an uphill battle, more so when their top scoring candidate in 2019, Christian Micallef, will not be contesting. The PL is likely to retain control; however, its efforts could be hampered by the eternal cold war between incumbent mayor Alfred Zammit and party rival Raymond Azzopardi. The two already had a nail-biting battle for the mayorship in 2019, a race that could complicate itself more in 2024 with the new candidature of Olaf McKay.

Siggiewi

Population: 9,318

2019 votes: PL 50.6% (2,770), PN 49.4% (2,700)

2019 councillors: PL 4, PN 3

Siggiewi has always been an evenly split locality with a slight tilt towards the PN. However, in 2019, the PL managed to secure a majority for the first time ever, obtaining a mere 70 votes more than the PN. The razor-thin advantage means the locality can tilt either way in June. The PN will want to win it back to inject a touch of blue in the large red swathe covering middle Malta but the PL is unlikely to give up without a fight. Siggiewi will undoubtedly be a major battleground for the two major parties.