[ANALYSIS] Ukraine, a tinderbox waiting to explode

1. What triggered the current crisis?

A significant deployment of around 100,000 troops along Russia’s Ukraine’s border and significantly in Belarus – which also shares a border with Ukraine and is in striking distance of Ukrainian capital Kyiv – has been interpreted in Western capitals as a prelude to an invasion of the Ukraine.

Russia claims that the troops in Belarus have been deployed for already scheduled military exercises and insist that it is simply reacting to NATO’s expansion on its borders. Most experts concur that a full-scale invasion, followed by an occupation of most or all of Ukraine, would require more troops than Russia has currently assembled but it could be enough to annex the Russian speaking Donbass region, which is already run by separatists.

2. What is Russia ‘officially’ demanding?

While busy amassing troops within striking distance of Kyiv, Vladimir Putin blames the West for the escalation insisting that his country simply wants “legal guarantees” for its security.

The Russian formal demands are not limited to vetoing Ukraine’s membership in NATO but also foresee the removal of any troops or weapons deployed to countries that entered NATO after 1997, including Poland and the Baltic states.

Russia has also demanded that NATO does not hold drills without previous agreement with Russia in the Ukraine, Eastern Europe, in Caucasus countries such as Georgia or in Central Asia.

The Russia document which has been rejected by NATO also calls for a new agreement with the US meant to pull back any short- or medium-range missile systems out of reach of its borders, replacing the previous intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty that the US left in 2018.

3. But what does Vladimir Putin really want?

The build-up of troops coupled with the veto on the sovereign right of Eastern European nations to choose their alliances risks formalising a new Russian sphere of influence over Eastern Europe and a resurrection of some form of closer union with the Ukraine and Belarus.

In July, Putin penned a 5,000-word essay arguing that Ukraine is part of “historical Russia” and that the two countries were “essentially the same historical and spiritual space.”

The article draws on historical ties between the two countries; dating back to the medieval kingdom of the Rus centered on Kyiv and including parts of Russia and Belarus.

Ukraine also harbours a Russian-speaking majority in the eastern part of the country and since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which saw the country selling its public assets to corrupt elites, the country has alternated between pro Russian governments and pro western ones.

Putin’s article fanned fear that Russia’s ultimate goal is to keep Ukraine with its sphere of influence either by annexing the Donbass region, or forcing the country in its entirety to return to the Russian fold.

The question is whether Putin is using troops to bring the West to the negotiating table or whether Russia is planning some form of military action – whether a small-scale invasion in eastern Ukraine or a full-scale invasion of the country.

Putin may well be amassing troops to test western resolution, banking on divisions between hawks and doves while presenting a tall order of demands, which gives him room for a diplomatic exit.

But to lend credence to the threat he poses, Putin may be tempted to make incursions in the Eastern Ukraine. In so doing he could be banking on Europe’s reluctance in escalating a crisis just as it is emerging from a pandemic, with the ultimate aim of securing a commitment that Ukraine won’t ever join NATO.

4. Is Russia justified in fearing NATO on its doorstep?

Russia shares its longest border on the west with the Ukraine. It was from this direction that Nazi troops invaded the USSR in 1941 in a war, which cost 27 million Soviet lives, which makes it the costliest war in human history. And while Kyiv had valiantly resisted the Germans, the Ukrainian far right still pays homage to Nazi collaborators.

Russia compares NATO expansion on its doorstep to the deployment of Russian nukes in Cuba in 1962. Back then it was Russia which had to back off to avoid a nuclear war.

For the Russians, Ukraine’s drift towards NATO is tantamount to Mexico joining a Russian led alliance with troops and weapons just over the fence from Texas. Perversely Russia justifies its imperial ambitions by citing precedents created by the US in Latin America, which for decades it has regarded as its backyard, and the Middle East including the illegal invasion of Iraq. In short Putin is claiming Russia’s right to have its backyard.

5. Does Ukraine need NATO for protection?

For pro-western politicians in the Ukraine, NATO membership is the ultimate guarantee for the country’s independence from Moscow.

The fears are grounded in Russia’s constant meddling in Ukrainian politics, the annexation of Crimea in 2013 and the declaration of self-proclaimed republics by Russian-backed separatists in two regions in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, known as the Donbass.

From 1994 the country was led by pro Russian strongman Leonid Kuchma, whose corruption and plans to abduct a journalist were exposed in recordings leaked in 2000.

The resulting protests were suppressed but resentment re-erupted in the “Orange Revolution” after vote-rigging by Kuchma’s designated successor, Viktor Yanukovych, in the 2004 presidential election. This led to the election Western-leaning Viktor Yushchenko, whose tenure combined some economic growth with rising inequality, which led to the return of the Moscow friendly Yanukovych in 2010.

In December 2013, Yanukovych cancelled plans to sign an agreement bringing the country closer to the EU after Putin proposed a customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan instead. Yanukovych's move prompted protests in Kyiv, which led to his ousting.

In 2014 Russia annexed Crimea a largely Russian-speaking peninsula. The Kremlin justified its invasion claiming that they acted to support a referendum in favour of re-joining Russia but the US and the EU, said the referendum, which occurred after troops invaded, was illegal. Conflict later broke out in Donbass-the Russian speaking eastern part of the country that left 14,000 people dead.

For the majority of Ukrainians living in the western part of the country, a durable alliance with the west provides the only assurance against Russian aggression. This is because if Ukraine becomes a NATO member any Russian attack would embroil the entire alliance in to an unprecedented full-scale war as the organisation is based on the principle that an attack on one member state is an attack on all member states.

But as things stand now, Ukraine has no such guarantee and any Russian attack may well end up triggering a similar reaction to that following the annexation of Crimea i.e. widespread condemnation and sanctions but not enough to change the situation on the ground.

And while NATO membership may deter any future Russian attack on the Ukraine, the very prospect of Ukraine joining NATO gives Russia a pretext for its aggressive brinkmanship in what has become a high stakes game for both sides. And while both sides are still reeling from COVID are not keen on an unprecedented war, they are locked in an escalation with unforeseen consequences.

6. Will the crisis be solved if Ukraine forgets about NATO and becomes neutral?

The United States and its Western partners could offer the Russian government a proposal that both sides guarantee the neutrality of Ukraine. In return, Russia would withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian border and recognise the country’s full sovereignty.

But any such an agreement will have to address the status of the Donbass region and that of Crimea. Would such an agreement this be enough to satiate Putin’s hunger or will it simply increase his appetite for more?

The western powers are inclined to think the worse about Putin, and have not entertained any of his demands. But a long-term solution, which has Putin on board, may well be the only alternative to a cold war, which may well have its hot spots.

7. Why is the Ukraine downplaying the crisis?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly downplayed the threat of an imminent Russian invasion in what Politico described as signs of “dissonance between Kyiv and Washington”.

“We do not see a bigger escalation that it has been before,” Zelenskyy said of Russia’s provocations, adding that he did not think the security situation “is more intense than it was… at the peak time in early 2021.”

This contrasted with the assessments of U.S. officials, who repeatedly have warned that Moscow could move its troops across the border at any moment.

While downplaying the risk of a Russian invasion, Ukraine has been asking for more weapons to defend against one and has not given up on its ambition to join NATO. This suggests that while Ukraine fears an escalation of the crisis and is refraining from incendiary rhetoric, which could further anger Moscow, it still wants those security guarantees from the west, which make Putin see red.

8. Why is Germany reluctant to arm Ukraine or send troops?

Germany’s refusal to join other NATO members in providing weapons to the Ukraine has annoyed some allies and raised questions about Berlin’s resolve in standing up to Russia.

Instead Germany has offered to supply 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine to help it defend itself against a possible Russian invasion. Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, dismissed the offer as “a joke” and said it had left him “speechless.”

One major consideration conditioning Germany dealings with Moscow is dependence on Russian gas.

As Russian troops were amassing on the Ukraine a 1,225-kilometre pipeline linking Russia to Germany is ready but still awaiting regulatory approval. The energy project would double gas flow to Germany while bypassing Ukraine, which relies on existing pipelines for income.

Germany has now threatened to scrap the pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine. But such a move against its biggest energy supplier would come at a high price for Germany. With plans to switch off its last three nuclear power plants this year and phase out the use of coal by 2030, Germany’s reliance on gas is set to increase in the short term before the country switches to renewable energy, a process which the Greens who are in government want to accelerate.

Germany’s reluctance to send more troops is however grounded in memories of the Second World War, which saw German troops committing atrocities on Ukrainian and Russian soil.

Recently speaking alongside her Russian counterpart, foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock acknowledged the “suffering and destruction that we Germans brought upon the peoples of the Soviet Union” during the Nazi era, but warned that Germany was willing to consider tough steps if Russia acts against Ukraine.

9. Will the west really go to war over the Ukraine?

NATO is under no obligation to respond militarily to any Russian invasion of the Ukraine simply because Ukraine is not a member. But while further Russian incursions in the Donbass region are likely to trigger a similar reaction to that following the annexation of Crimea, namely more sanctions, an unlikely full-blown invasion of the Ukraine would represent an existential challenge to both NATO and the EU.

As former German foreign Minister Josckha Fischer warned an invasion of the Ukraine will put the in question the whole edifice of the post war European order, which is based on the renunciation of violence, self-determination, the inviolability of borders and territorial integrity.

US President Joe Biden, who is still reeling from the debacle in Afghanistan, may be tempted to be more assertive in confronting Russia but may end up overstretched especially in view of China’s increased belligerence towards Taiwan.

Moreover the prospect of military confrontation with a former super power with a nuclear arsenal and considerable military might represents a different challenge than that posed by the US’s enemies in Iraq and Afghanistan. In short it is extremely unlikely that western public opinion can sustain massive loss of life from a war, which would alter daily life in a continent reeling from the pandemic. In short war of such a scale is simply unthinkable in a continent, which has been largely at peace since 1945.

It is far more likely that if Russia was to invade Ukraine, the West’s response will consist sanctions. But the same weapon failed to make any difference after Russia annexed Crimea. Both the UK and the US have hinted sanctions of a scale, which have never seen before.

“The mother of all sanctions”, was how Bob Menendez, chairman of the US Senate’s foreign-relations committee, described the package being assembled. But for sanctions to have any impact western states will also have to shoulder economic pain themselves.

Another dilemma is whether such sanctions should come in force before an actual invasion to pre-empt it or only if Russia crosses the line. But the most likely scenario remains a volatile one; rearmament and troop movements along Ukraine’s border and a military built up which may go out of control at any time.