Bartolo sends alert to Europe over Libya teetering on brink again

As war rages in the Ukraine, to the south of the Mediterranean a worsening situation is unfolding in Libya, where division at its highest level is threatening a new phase of civil conflict.

Foreign minister Evarist Bartolo has alerted counterparts in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany of the deteriorating situation ahead of a mobilisation of militias al-lied to Fathi Bashagha to enter Tripoli and dislodge the Abdul Hamid Dbeibah government.

But a statement from the five governments has so far done little to prevent the approach of Bashagha’s ‘Government of National Stability’ (GNS) militias from Misrata, Zliten, and Warshef-fana.

Although pro-GNS militias did not manage to reach Tripoli, Bashagha is trying to secure a permanent presence in Tripoli to take control of the National Oil Corporation, the Central Bank and the Oil Ministry, his only guarantee to access financial resources.

The Libyan parliament swore in Fathi Bashagha as prime minister a week ago, ousting Abdul Hamid Dbeibah’s interim government, formed in the summer of 2020 with a mandate to unify state institutions divided between rival governments in east and west.

An election process collapsed in December shortly before the scheduled vote, and rival factions have argued over the right path forward.

The House of Representatives took the eastern side during the civil war, and declared Dbeibah’s government had expired and announced a new transitional period under Bashagha’s new government, with no elections until next year.

Bartolo pointed out to counterparts that with two parallel governments claiming legitimacy, there can only be one government until elections are held.

“If this ambiguity is not clarified and adequately addressed, the undermining of the stability and the deepening divisions in Libya remain a very real risk and the return to violence and conflict very likely,” diplomatic sources told MaltaToday.

“The whole issue is now even more complicated due to the new geopolitical reality created by the Ukraine war, as the Russian Federation has openly declared its backing for and recognition of the Bashagha proposed government.”

Bartolo joined Italian and British foreign ministers in calling for a joint committee from the House of Representatives and the High State Council, to establish a consensual constitutional basis that can lead to national elections as soon as possible.

They also referred to the United Nations’ call “on all actors to refrain from taking any actions that could undermine stability and deepen divisions in Libya.”

They said the House of Representatives’ vote fell short of the expected standards of transparency and procedures, and even included acts of intimidation prior to the session.”

Bashagha establishing a presence in Tripoli with his allied militias would likely spark clashes in the city. The intensity and duration of the clashes would depend on how strong Bashagha is militarily, and on the local and international reactions to his strategy.

With key access points to the city under solid Government of National Unity (GNU) control, a significant violent escalation in Tripoli remains unlikely because the GNS does not have enough armed support in the city.

Dbeibah has stated multiple times that he will not hand over his authority to Bashagha. Unless an agreement is reached between the GNU and the GNS, new skirmishes between forces supporting the two governments cannot be excluded.

Rapidly deteriorating relations between Russia and the West as the war in Ukraine rages, will also raise questions as to whether Russia could use private military companies like the Wagner Group in Libya, to put pressure on Western interests.

As Russia faces a united Europe supporting Ukraine, increasing instability on Europe’s southern flank could be appealing to Moscow, which is why Libya’s renewed division threatening the UN-brokered political process, worries Europe.