Trump or Clinton: Who will be the next U.S. President?

As with most recent elections for the US presidency, this year’s battle between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be decided by voters in a dozen or so battleground states.

Under the American voting system, a candidate needs to win a majority of the 538 delegates who will constitute the electoral college that officially anoints the next president in December.

While Trump could win the popular vote in a majority of the 50 American states, opinion polls suggest he will not secure a majority of delegates because Clinton is poised to win delegate-rich contests in the most populous states like California and Illinois.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal latest poll results

One of the candidates will win control of the college when he or she secures at least 270 delegates at this week’s election.

With less than a day to go before the election booths open, opinion polls suggest Trump is certain to win in 18 states that will likely earn him 164 delegates.

Clinton is in the box seat to carry at least 16 states, plus the District of Columbia that will yield her 216 delegates.

So the battle for the keys to the White House will be decided by a clutch of cliffhanger states that collectively account for 158 delegates.

The most recent Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll shows Clinton currently holds a five-point lead over her Republican rival, up from the three-point lead the poll reported last Friday and much improved from the poll earlier last week which showed Trump ahead by a point.

Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics has the Democratic nominee only 1.9 points ahead of Trump, compared to the 1.7-point lead she held on Friday.

Polling stations open for voting on Tuesday, though by Friday nearly 40.0 million Americans had already voted. Results are expected early Wednesday morning London time.

How does the presidential election work?

Each of the 50 states, as well as the District of Columbia, has a certain amount of electoral college votes to award a candidate, based on the number of members of Congress it has. This is roughly in line with each area’s population. Except in Maine and Nebraska, the votes are given on a winner-takes-all basis.

This system matters, as the popular vote is less important than the electoral college vote. Clinton’s campaign should be buoyed by big Democratic states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California, and these populous states could lead her to victory with their large number of electoral college votes.

For example, in 2008, Barack Obama won 53% of the vote – but this led to 68% of the electoral college vote. Such highly populated states played a large role when they backed the current president.

What are the odds on the American presidential election?

Hillary Clinton has been odds-on favourite since the end of February, but Trump has steadily caught her up as his Republican rivals dropped out. Last July he was a 25/1 shot while Hillary was already at evens.

Coral’s latest odds for the next US president are:

• Hillary Clinton: 2/9
• Donald Trump: 3/1

How could demographics impact the US election?

Age, race, gender and education are all big dividing points in the presidential race, with polling showing that men and whites are backing Trump, and women and ethnic minorities are supporting Clinton. 

Race has always been a huge dividing line in the US election, and the clash between Trump and Clinton is no different. Just 17% of Hispanics and 3% of black people back Trump, according to recent polling.

This could prove significant in this election. For example, Hispanics account for more than a fifth of the population in four key swing states.

Here is a summary of the six states most likely to shape the outcome.

Florida (29 delegates)

Along with Ohio, Florida is a consistent bellwether of presidential elections. It sealed Al Gore’s fate in the knife-edge 2000 election won by George W. Bush.

There’s a strong chance that Trump will establish an early lead in the Florida count because returns from Republican strongholds in the northern part of the state are traditionally declared earlier than the Democratic-leaning southern counties.

Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012 after snaring big margins among Hispanic voters in Miami. Opinion polls put Clinton ahead by an average of 1%, which means the fight for the state’s delegates could go down to the wire again.

Ohio (18 delegates)

Mitt Romney’s chances of winning the presidency were dealt a fatal blow early in the count of the 2012 election when Barack Obama began building a material lead in Ohio.

Every presidential winner since 1964 has carried Ohio, but there could be a break with history this year. Opinion polls indicate that the state is more likely to direct its delegates to Trump.

Media reports suggest that the Democratic Party is finding it difficult to mobilise the African-American vote in the state.

Thank you Pennsylvania- I am forever grateful for your amazing support. Lets MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! #MAGA https://t.co/HfihPERFgZ pic.twitter.com/Q8PXiktPqD

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2016

Pennsylvania (20 delegates)

Clinton led every opinion poll on voting intentions in Pennsylvania since late July, but the latest poll conducted in early November indicates that the candidates are at level pegging.

Pennsylvania is a Democratic-leaning state, having voted against Republican nominees in the last six presidential elections.

The decline of steel-making in the Pittsburgh city region has put the state in play at this election. Republican strategists are hoping that Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on Chinese steel imports will turn blue-collar voters against Clinton.

North Carolina (15 delegates)

Historically, this state is Republican-leaning. After winning in 2008, Obama lost to Romney in 2012 in what was the tightest result of the 50 state contests.

Momentum was with Clinton since the middle of August, but her ratings in the opinion polls nose-dived last week after revelations that the FBI had re-opened its probe into her private emails.

Trump’s average lead in the polls up to November 1 was around 2%.

A high turnout of African-American electors in pre-poll voting augurs well for Clinton. Should be tight.

Tomorrow caps an amazing journey, but the work we have to do is just beginning. https://t.co/ulXFcHXcTS

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) November 7, 2016

Colorado (9 delegates)

Trump strategists believe that support for their candidate has surged in Colorado in recent weeks.

However, he has not led a single poll conducted in the state since the middle of September.

Clinton’s average lead in the polls conducted this month is 3%. Reports of high turnouts of Hispanic voters in early voting probably indicate that Trump faces a rocky climb.

Nevada (6 delegates)

Before the FBI helped to turn the momentum of the election Trump’s way in late October, Clinton seemed to be cruising in Nevada. Now that the FBI has cleared her of any wrongdoing, Democrats will be hoping that she can retrieve the 4% margin she enjoyed for most of last month.