What does Malta’s climate have in store for us?

Local crops and livestock could be at risk as Malta’s climate becomes hotter and drier, a new study carried out by the National Statistics Office. 

Sun lovers can somewhat rejoice, as sunshine duration has shown a clear upward trend since 1961. But the sharpest rise was registered in the winter months, with the highest increase seen in February. Over time, this is equivalent to an increase of 0.1 hours per decade throughout the 60-year period.  

Ambient air temperature has similarly been on the rise, increasing by around 0.2°C per decade. Overall, Malta’s annual average ambient temperature is about 1.5°C higher now than it was in 1952. Meanwhile there have been extended consecutive drought years, especially noticeable since 2000. In fact, rainfall decreased by 10.33mm per decade since 1952. 

The effects of climate change on Malta go beyond higher air and sea temperatures. Between more frequent heatwaves and drought conditions, and increased torrential rains and flooding, the report indicates that future climate change will negatively affect natural freshwater supplies, livestock and crop survival.  

At an economic level, there has been a significant decrease in revenues from grape, olives and wine production since 1946. Malta faced a 69% decline in grape production and 22% fall in wheat production, among other crops. 

Increased rates of evapo-transpiration, where water travels from the earth’s surface into the atmosphere, could induce further stress on locally scarce freshwater resources, according to the study.  

On top of this, higher levels of ambient temperature and humidity could lead to stressed livestock. High night-time temperatures do not allow livestock to shed the heat from the day before, and three consecutive days of high temperatures could be dangerous for ruminants.  

Indeed, the report indicates that current conditions are already subjecting local livestock to a significant level of discomfort and alertness in the summer months.  

Regardless of any efforts to mitigate climate change, the report indicates that the future projected trend of the Aridity Index shows a drastic decrease under all future climate scenarios by 2050 and 2070. 

Adaptation measures needed 

The report makes several warnings in its concluding remarks. For the agricultural sector, the researchers point out that changes in temperatures and precipitation patterns will inevitably take their toll on production if adaptation measures are not implemented.  

“Extended drought periods may lead to stunted crop growth and lower crop yields while warmer winters may cause higher incidences of diseases and pests. Decreased cloudiness can also bring about higher land surface temperatures and increased rates of evapotranspiration, both of which can be detrimental to an agricultural sector that is reliant on seasonal rainfall and the extraction of groundwater that depends upon rainfall for its replenishment,” the NSO said. 

Meanwhile, the decrease in rainfall will likely result in a decrease in the natural recharge of Malta’s aquifers, leading to. Higher pressure on the country’s sole natural water resource.  

“With regards to the tourism industry, projected climate change impacts will lead to increased infrastructure damage, additional emergency preparedness requirements, and higher operating expenses. These are just examples of the impacts that climate change is bound to have on these and other sectors.”