Three surveys, same PN score, different leads

A polling average based on the results of three electoral surveys published over the past week gives the Labour Party a 5.5-point lead over the Nationalist Party. 

The surveys published by MaltaToday, The Sunday Times, and statistician Vincent Marmara give the PL an average support of 49.9% against the PN’s 44.4%. Support for third parties would stand at an average of 5.7%. 

All three surveys were conducted in a comparable time frame. MaltaToday's survey was held between 29 January and 13 February while the poll released by The Sunday Times of Malta was held between 30 January and 12 February. Marmara’s survey was held between 1 and 6 February. 

This means that all three surveys coincided with respondents receiving higher pay cheques reflecting the budget tax cut and with ongoing political controversies, including that on magisterial inquiries. 

The gap between the parties 

Taken individually, all three surveys show the PL enjoying a comfortable lead over the PN, albeit one considerably lower than the 39,000-vote gap obtained in the 2022 general election. 

The gap between the two major parties stands at between 4.3 percentage points in MaltaToday's survey and 6.5 points in The Sunday Times survey. Marmara puts the gap at 5.9 points. 

The estimated gap between the two main parties based on the different projected turnout in each survey varies between 11,613 votes in the MaltaToday survey to 15,800 votes in the Marmara survey and 18,700 votes in the Times of Malta survey. 

PN’s support consistent, PL and third parties differ 

The three surveys tend to converge on the level of support for the PN but differ on the support for Labour and other parties. Nonetheless, in all three cases, the difference falls squarely within the margin of error of each survey. 

Support for the PN ranges from 43.9% in the MaltaToday survey to 44.2% in Marmara's survey to 45% in the Times survey. This means that, on this account, the three surveys differ by a point or less, which is statistically insignificant. 

But the level of support for Labour ranges from 48.2% in the MaltaToday survey to 50.1% in Marmara’s to 51.5% in the Sunday Times survey. On this account, the difference between the three surveys is no more than 3.3 points. 

Moreover, the level of support for third parties ranges from 3.5% in the Sunday Times survey to 7.9% in the MaltaToday survey.  

Vincent Marmara puts the level of support for third parties at 5.7%. In this case, the three surveys differ by a maximum of 4.4 points. 

Only MaltaToday’s survey included an estimate of support for new party Momentum (4%).  Both Marmara and MaltaToday gave a separate estimate for ADPD with both surveys converging at 3%. But while MaltaToday polled other third parties at 0.5%, Marmara polled other parties at 2.7%. The Sunday Times survey grouped all third parties (including ADPD) together at just 3.5%. 

Minimum and maximum level of support for each party in each survey based on margin of error of each poll

Scenarios based on margin of error range 

The three surveys also have different margins of error, which means that each survey’s findings could vary from a high point and a low point for each party within a scientifically established range.  

Vincent Marmara’s survey, which had a sample of 1,200, had the lowest margin of error (+/- 2.8 points), while The Sunday Times survey, which had a sample of 600 respondents, had the highest margin of error (+/- 4 points). MaltaToday, which had a sample of 672 respondents, had a margin of error of (+/- 3.8 points). 

The margin of error of these three surveys indicates that the actual results could vary within a range, with the gap between the highest and lowest estimates reflecting the possible fluctuations in each survey’s findings. 

In the case of the Marmara survey, the range of possibilities varies from a neck-and-neck scenario in which both major parties are locked at 47% to one where Labour has a strong mandate of 53%. 

In the case of the Sunday Times survey, the possible outcomes range from a supermajority for Labour of 55.5% to the PN leading with a relative majority of 49%. 

In the case of the MaltaToday survey, the outcomes range from an absolute majority for Labour of 52% to a relative majority of 48% for the PN. 

When all three surveys are taken together, the range of possibilities stretches from a 55.5% majority for Labour to a relative majority of 49% for the PN. Support for third parties ranges from a complete wipe-out to a record 11.7%. 

Minimum and maximum level of support for each party registered in the range covered by all three surveys