District breakdown, 1-4: Labour strongholds, and the mirror of the nation

Elected in 2017 on the first district: (Left to right, from top) Jose Herrera, Aaron Farrugia, Deo Debattista (PL); Mario De Marco, Claudio Grech (PN)

The first district: A mirror of the nation?

The first district, which historically stood out as the most evenly split of the southern districts, includes Valletta, Floriana, Ħamrun, Marsa, Pietà and Guardamanġia, and Santa Venera.

The PN last won a majority in this district in 2003, when the party won 52% of the vote share, which mirrored the share of the party’s national support. But by 2008 the district was tightly contested with Labour winning 50% against the PN’s 49%, a margin which also reflected a national trend which saw the PN edging through with 1,500 votes.

But in a reflection of the national trend in 2013, Labour won 55% of votes in this district. Five years later Labour’s advantage in this district increased with the PN’s share decreasing to just 42% of the vote. Third parties have never left a mark on this district. Even in 2013 when AD snatched its best general election result on a national level (1.8%), the party only polled 1.2%.

Labour’s three incumbents will also have MP Andy Ellul contesting, who was recently co-opted to parliament by Robert Abela, and is another dark horse on the district. Absent this time around is former Labour MP Silvio Parnis who although not elected from this district, had grabbed 1,385 first count votes in 2017.

Aaron Farrugia is contesting on two districts and may get elected on both, which means he would make way for someone to be elected through a casual election.

As for the PN, Mario de Marco was the lead candidate elected, followed by Claudio Grech, who will not be contesting this time around.

One notable addition to the Labour ticket in this district is Pietà Mayor Keith Azzopardi Tanti. The candidate made news after his candidature was endorsed by former party leader Joseph Muscat. Since Labour is unlikely to elect more than three candidates, Tanti may replace a sitting MP. But another female Labour MP could be elected through the corrective mechanism: first-time candidate Cressida Galea, who has been schooled in Labour’s ‘Lead’ programme and could be one of the candidates to watch, along with Davina Sammut Hili.

The major unknown in the PN is which candidate will take the largest share of Claudio Grech’s 2,606 first-count votes. When announcing his decision to contest Grech made it a point to anoint new candidate Christian Micallef, a former mayor of Valletta and sports TV host.

Mario de Marco, who has been returned to the House in all elections since 2003, still starts as a favourite even if he was recently sidelined in representing the party on financial issues. Paula Mifsud Bonnici, who was elected in both 2013 and 2017 and has served in party structures over the last legislature, is also a strong PN candidate.

Elected in 2017 on the second district: (Left to right, from top) Joseph Muscat, Helena Dalli, Joe Mizzi, Chris Agius (PL); Stephen Spiteri (PN) – Casual election: Glenn Bedingfield (PL)

Second district – Labour’s fortress

The district which Labour has consistently won in all post-WWII elections includes Vittoriosa, Cospicua and Senglea as well as neighbouring Kalkara, Żabbar and Fgura.

As has happened in most elections, Labour is expected to elect four out of five candidates on the district. In 2017, Labour won a massive 71% of the district’s votes up from 67% in 2008. The PN’s share declined from 32% in 2008 to 28% in 2017.

In 2017, the district was dominated by Joseph Muscat who secured a whopping 14,674 first-count votes. He was followed by Helena Dalli, Glenn Bedingfield, Joe Mizzi and Chris Agius. The Nationalists only managed to elect Stephen Spiteri, who is expected to be returned to parliament as the PN’s sole representative.

Since Robert Abela is now contesting this district, one major question will be whether he will get the same amount of votes as his predecessor.

Helena Dalli had won 650 first-count votes and inherited the largest share of Muscat’s second preferences, but she is now serving as an EU commissioner and will not be contesting.

Labour’s ticket on this district now includes ministers Byron Camilleri, Carmelo Abela and Clyde Caruana. Also contesting are sitting MPs Glenn Bedingfield, Chris Agius, Oliver Scicluna and Joe Mizzi.

As finance minister and one of Abela’s most trusted aides, having served as Chief of Staff before becoming minister, former Zabbar mayor Clyde Caruana may be a favourite for Abela’s votes. But he will have to compete for them with Abela’s own sister-in-law Alison Zerafa Civelli, the mayor of Cospicua.

Labour whip Glenn Bedingfield, who was also recently endorsed by Joseph Muscat and has a reputation as a party hawk, may also perform well in this deep red district.

Elected in 2017 on the third district: (Left to right, from top) Chris Fearne, Carmelo Abela, Helena Dalli, Silvio Grixti (PL); Mario Galea (PN) – Casual election: Jean Claude Micallef (PL)

Third district – The other Labour stronghold

Back in 2017 Labour won 70% of the district of Zejtun, Ghaxaq Marsascala and Marsaxlokk, up from 62% in 2003. On the other hand, the PN’s share of the vote has fallen from 37% in 2003 to just 29% in 2017.

The current Labour incumbents are deputy PM Chris Fearne, Carmelo Abela, Jean Claude Micallef and Andy Ellul. Micallef became an MP in 2019 after he won a casual election to replace Helena Dalli after she became Malta’s European Commissioner.

In 2017, Labour had also elected family doctor Silvio Grixti who resigned in December after he was interrogated by the police as part of an investigation into fraudulent medical certificates. He was replaced by Andy Ellul, who is contesting on this district again.

Ministers Owen Bonnici and Carmelo Abela are also contesting on this district; James Grech and Joseph M. Sammut had contested with the party as MEP candidates.

The PN in 2018 only elected one MP from this district – party veteran Mario Galea, who shocked the party when he announced that will not be seeking re-election on the first day of the campaign. Galea caused more ripples when he participated in a Labour party conference on mental health.

Marsascala council’s minority leader John Baptist Camilleri may make inroads over his stance against the yacht marina project. The PN’s new candidates include former police officer Mary Muscat. The district is also being contested by MPs Stephen Spiteri and Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici.

Elected in 2017 on the fourth district: (Left to right, from top) Chris Fearne, Konrad Mizzi, Silvio Parnis, Byron Camilleri (PL); Jason Azzopardi (PN) – Casual election: Etienne Grech (PL) – Constitutional procedure: Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici (PN)

District 4 – The grab for Konrad Mizzi’s votes

In 2017, Labour had won 67% of the vote the district of Paola, Gudja, Santa Luċija, Tarxien and part of Fgura, up from 59% in 2003 and 62% in 2008.

The biggest unknown on Labour’s side is who is going to inherit the votes of PL heavyweights Konrad Mizzi and Silvio Parnis, who will not be contesting. Back in 2017 Mizzi, who was expelled from the party in 2019, won 4,698 votes, coming a close second to deputy PM Chris Fearne, who will be contesting again. Parnis came third with 3,334 first count votes.

The PN’s frontrunners in 2017 were Jason Azzopardi and Carm Mifsud Bonnici. The election will be a major test for Azzopardi, who openly clashed with former party leader Adrian Delia and whose firebrand attacks on Labour make him a bête noire in Labour propaganda. Azzopardi will be competing with former Eurovision singer Julie Zahra, who is contesting her first election and is being pushed as a new face by the party, apart from featuring in a number of debates on behalf of the party during this electoral campaign. Mark Anthony Sammut, who got 1,400 votes in 2017 and was prominent in the 2019 protests that led to the resignation of Joseph Muscat, has seen his stature in the party grow in the past legislature, and could also make further inroads in this district.

On Labour’s side, Fearne’s popularity grew during the COVID crisis and is expected to make a very strong showing. Labour MPs Jonathan Attard and former disability commission chairperson Oliver Scicluna, both co-opted MPs, are well placed to capitalise on the Mizzi-Parnis vacancies.