District breakdown, 10-13: Crowded PN districts and will Gozo go pale red?

Elected in 2017 on the ninth district: (Left to right, from top) Clifton Grima, Michael Falzon (PL); Kristy Debono, Robert Arrigo, Marthese Portelli (PN) – Casual election: Manuel Mallia (PL), Ivan J. Bartolo (PN)

District 9 – The PN’s crowded field

No earthquakes are expected on a district in which the PN won with a comfortable 56% margin in 2017, which represented a 2 point increase for the party over 2013.

Comprising Għarghur, Msida, San Ġwann, Swieqi and Ta’ Xbiex, the ninth district will see a crowded field of PN candidates competing for three seats.

The PN has lost Kristy Debono who emerged as the party’s frontrunner with over 4,000 first-count votes in 2017. Marthese Portelli, elected in the 2017 election, will also not be contesting this election after she resigned from parliament. Portelli was replaced by Ivan Bartolo, who vacated his seat in 2020 to make way for Bernard Grech.

Deputy leader Robert Arrigo was the PN’s final candidate elected on the district in 2017.

This time around the ninth district will see a contest between four lawyers: Jason Azzopardi, Beppe Fenech Adami, Karol Aquilina and newcomer Joe Giglio.

Jason Azzopardi and Karol Aquilina, who are both associated with the anti-Delia faction of the party and the party’s battle against corruption, will be contesting this district for the first time. This could be an indication that both candidates are placing their hopes in districts which are more receptive to rule of law issues.

Three popular PN mayors, namely Sliema mayor Graziella Attard Previ, St Julian’s mayor Albert Buttigieg and Swieqi mayor Noel Muscat, will also be contested. The crowded PN field also includes incumbent MP Karl Gouder.

Also contesting are newcomers Graham Bencini, 18-year-old candidate Eve Borg Bonello, and Emma Portelli Bonnici, who stands out as one of the most liberal candidates contesting with the PN.

On Labour’s side, four cabinet member, namely Michael Falzon, Clifton Grima, Edward Zammit Lewis and Stefan Zrinzo Azzpardi are contesting along with promising newcomer Rebecca Buttigieg.

Elected in 2017 on the tenth district: (Left to right, from top) Evarist Bartolo, Michael Falzon (PL); Robert Arrigo, Marlene Farrugia, Karl Gouder (PN) – Casual election: Karol Aquilina (PN)

District 10 – All eyes on Cassola

The tenth district, which includes Sliema, Gzira, St Julian’s and Pembroke, remains a firm PN stronghold and the only which it won by over 60% in 2017.

But the district also harbours a segment of pale blue and liberal voters with a strong independent streak, reflected in strong showings by AD in past elections including a 714-vote showing in 2013. In 2017 this streak was evident in the election of Marlene Farrugia, who garnered 1,016 first count votes in coalition with the PN. Farrugia will not be contesting this election and her votes will be up for grabs. Any hope for the PN to win a fourth seat depends on recovering these votes.

Unsurprisingly, the more continentally minded district has attracted a crowded third-party field which includes three AD candidates including its former MEP candidate Mina Tolu, and Volt candidate Thomas ‘Kass’ Mallia.

But the most recognisable third-party representative is seasoned campaigner Arnold Cassola, a former Green Party leader whose impressive CV also includes a stint as an Italian MP and serving as secretary-general of the European Greens. Cassola’s relentless scrutiny of abuse of power under Labour also makes him best poised to may be the best poised to inherit votes from PN candidates, making his election a remote possibility if he gets enough first-count votes.

But the PN will be hoping to gain an elusive fourth seat if the general tide of the election swings a bit closer than it did five years ago. Four PN candidates who gained 1,000 votes each will not be contesting this election: these include Francis Zammit Dimech, George Pullicino and Nick Refalo.

The crowded PN lists includes incumbents Robert Arrigo, Karl Gouder, and Karol Aquilina, who will all be re-contesting. Also joining the fray this time around are Mark Anthony Sammut and Joe Giglio. St Julian’s mayor Albert Buttigieg, who distinguished himself in opposing overdevelopment in his locality, could also be a force to be reckoned with. Emma Portelli Bonnici and Eve Borg Bonello are also contesting the district.

In contrast Labour is fielding few candidates in this district. These include incumbents Evarist Bartolo, Michael Falzon and Clifton Grima.

Rebecca Buttigieg is considered to be the most promising of Labour’s newcomers. Not contesting this time around is outspoken Gzira mayor Conrad Borg Manché who gained 923 votes in 2017, and former minister Manuel Mallia whose 1,777 votes are up for grabs.

Elected in 2017 on the eleventh district: (Left to right, from top) Alex Muscat, Anthony Agius Decelis, (PL); Simon Busuttil, David Agius, Edwin Vassallo (PN) – Casual election: Maria Deguara, Ivan Bartolo (PN)

District 11: Bernard’s safe seat

Bernard Grech is set for a strong affirmation in a PN-leaning district which includes Mosta and Attard which was previously contested by Simon Busuttil who received an impressive vote count of 11,266 in 2017. Although this is considered a safe district for the PN, the party’s share of the vote decreased from 61% in to 55% in 2013 and 2017, in an indication that the district has become more competitive. Grech’s presence on the district could arrest this decline.

All PN incumbents elected from this district will be re-contesting, including deputy leader David Agius, veteran conservative MP Edwin Vassallo and former Naxxar mayor Maria Deguara. Among its new candidates the PN is fielding Joseph Grech, who led the PN’s youth wing.

On the PL side the two major additions are Energy Minister Miriam Dalli and popular Mosta mayor Romilda Baldacchino Zarb who could make life difficult for the incumbents. Absent this time around is former minister Chris Cardona, who gained 2,274 first count votes in 2017.

The third-party vote is also traditionally higher than the national average in this particular district. Back in 2013 AD candidates collectively gained 717 votes. Independent candidate Arnold Cassola may bank on boosting his first count votes by inheriting votes from Bernard Grech’s surplus. But that would not be enough if he does not get a substantial amount of first preferences. Also contesting on behalf of the Greens is former Attard councillor Ralph Cassar.

Elected in 2017 on the twelfth district: (Left to right, from top) Michael Farrugia, Evarist Bartolo (PL); Simon Busuttil, Robert Cutajar, Claudette Buttigieg (PN) – Casual election: Clayton Bartolo (PL), David Thake (PN, later resigned)

District 12 – The closest race

In 2017, the PN carried this district which includes Mellieha and St Paul’s Bay with just 801 votes. Labour now holds a majority in both the St Paul’s Bay and Mellieha local councils and may be heading to win a third seat on this strategic district. Moreover the PN will not benefit from the leader effect as it did in 2017 when the district was contested by Simon Busuttil.

But while Labour benefitted from demographic shifts before 2017, particularly due to its social liberalism which resonated with a higher percentage of separated persons renting cheaper apartments in this region, the district has also been tested by Labour’s economic model, characterised by over development, an increase in the foreign population and unaffordable housing. Disgruntlement in this district could also contribute to a lower voter turnout.

On the PN side Robert Cutajar and Claudette Buttigieg are both re-contesting, and are joined by Graziella Galea, a former mayor of St Paul’s Bay and daughter of a former PN Minister and district heavyweight Censu Galea.

On the PL side, veteran MP Evarist Bartolo who led the pack in 2017 with 3,066 votes will be seeking a strong affirmation in what is probably his last election showing. Despite his Labour pedigree, Bartolo retains an appeal among M.O.R. voters due to his critical stance on Panamagate. But his muted internal criticism may still backfire on him among hardcore Muscat loyalists.

Tourism minister Clayton Bartolo – who has grown in stature as part of Robert Abela’s Cabinet after having first represented his party on the Planning Board – could make further inroads in the district. A strong showing is also expected from Jonathan Attard, who was recently co-opted to parliament by Abela.

Elected in 2017 on the thirteenth district: (Left to right, from top) Anton Refalo, Clint Camilleri, Justyne Caruana (PL); Chris Said, Marthese Portelli (PN) – Casual election: David Stellini (later resigned), Frederick Azzopardi (passed away), Kevin Cutajar (PN)

District 13 – From deep blue to pale red?

The PN’s share of the vote in Gozo has declined from 59% in 2003 to 55% in 2008 to 50% in 2013 and 48% in 2017. This represented a decline of 11 points in the space of 20 years.

But despite Labour’s remarkable advances, it still carried this district with a very small majority in 2017. The big question now is whether Labour will now entrench its dominance in the district by widening the gap and turn the once deep blue district in to a pale red one.

This was all the more surprising in a relatively conservative island which voted against the introduction of divorce in 2011 and which is still characterised by strong patronage networks which manifest themselves in the misuse of the power of incumbency. In fact, Gozo was one of few districts which reversed the national trend against Labour in 1987 election.

While surveys show Labour leading in Gozo by a substantial margin, the district also has one of the highest rate of “don’t knows”.

In this election Labour may face some disgruntlement over planning policies which are disfiguring Gozitan towns but which have also enriched a number of Gozitan property owners.

On Labour’s side, the major absence this time round is Justyne Caruana whose 3,189 first count votes are now up for grabs. Veteran Labour MP Anton Refalo and Gozo Minister Clint Camilleri are still expected to dominate the pack. Xaghra candidate Christian Zammit, who had the courage to denounce a permit issued to developer Joe Portelli in Sannat, could also make inroads. A strong showing is also expected from Gozitan consultant surgeon Jo Etienne Abela who will be contesting with Labour for the first time.

On the PN’s side the major absence is that of Marthese Portelli who gained 2,622 first count votes in 2017. To make up for this absence the PN is fielding Claudette Buttigieg, whose stature in the party has grown during the past decade. Chris Said, who led the pack in 2017, is likely to keep his dominant position but inroads are expected by new candidates like Alex Borg, who could challenge incumbents Joe Ellis and Kevin Cutajar, who were both elected in casual elections.