[ANALYSIS] The PN on Sunday morning: all the scenarios

If Delia wins...

Delia will now want carte blanche to shape party in his image

There can be no half corners for Delia this time around. His re-election will give him the legitimacy to clamp down on dissent and promote his own team. This will not be easy considering that Delia lacks a majority in the PN’s parliamentary group. But his re-election would give Delia the carte blanche he needs to impose his ‘new way’ in the party. The only problem is that Delia has never explained what that new way really means and his attempts to impose his authority and censure critics may well sow further divisions. While a Delia victory may well silence the rebels, one possible risk would be placing the anti-Delia camp in hibernation and deprive him of any support in the forthcoming election where he would be left to sink. His restricted support in the parliamentary group also makes it impossible for him to form a shadow cabinet, which does not include internal critics.

The PN will try the immigration card again

As he did before MEP elections, Delia will most likely focus on reducing migration and foreign workers in any forthcoming election. This strategy did not pay off in the past years. But unshackled by the more liberal wing of his party, Delia may lurch further to the right. But it remains unlikely that Delia would question Malta’s international obligations towards asylum seekers.

The PN will be at the mercy of the Yorgen Fenech’s WhatsApp chats

Delia will still face a storm immediately after being re-elected, following the expected release of hundreds of WhatsApp messages from Yorgen Fenech’s phone, which reportedly includes hundreds of messages of Delia’s close aide Pierre Portelli. If these messages confirm any donations from Fenech after his 17 Black ownership was exposed, Delia’s position would become once again untenable. But vindicated by the vote of party members, Delia would probably stay on while the chances of a split in his party would increase.

The rebels will lose legitimacy

A Delia victory would reflect the unpopularity of the rebels and their antics even among the restricted coterie of PN members. It would stand as a clear message on them to shut up and stay out of the way of the party leader. Rank-and-file party supporters would frown upon any further dissent in the party as sabotage. MPs who have openly defied Delia may well have to either resign or eat humble pie.

Labour’s broadside against Delia will intensify

Labour would probably be all too happy to have the tried-and-tested Delia remaining PN leader. During the campaign Labour pundits like Robert Musumeci showed a clear preference for Delia in an attempt to lure his disgruntled supporters to Labour after a probable Grech victory. But if Delia defies the odds and wins, Labour would not balk at routing out Delia with all the ammunition it has in the same way it would treat Grech.

Irrespective of who wins…

The next PN leader will have a baggage

Bernard Grech’s promise at the start of his campaign was to give the PN a leader who could face up to Labour’s corrupt record, without being singled out for his sins.

But it turns out he settled his dues with the tax authorities right on the eve of his campaign, and his squeaky-clean image was tarnished among those who expected better. Simply put, his behaviour when below the radar did not match the high standards expected of an aspiring PM.

Instead PN members are now asking which candidate has the lightest baggage and who has the best chance of giving Labour a run for its money.

But others may well feel free to vote for the original outsider, considering that Grech lost the main advantage he had over Delia.

Tackling tax evasion will be tricky for any PN leader aspiring to become PM

Both Delia and Grech will lack the moral authority to clamp down on widespread tax evasion and to nurture a sense of fiscal morality in the country.

While the self-employed may identify with the fiscal troubles of both leaders, they will remind both PN candidates of their own tax record when faced with tax investigations.

While in this case Delia’s and Grech’s sins appear venial compared to Panama scandal of Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri, by ditching these toxic elements Labour may ironically turn the tables on the fiscal morality of the next PN leader.

Male lawyers fight it out next election

Irrespective of who wins, the next election will be a contest between male lawyers, with the PN losing a unique opportunity to distinguish itself from Labour. And while Labour has cultivated a generation of female candidates through its LEAD programme, the PN still lags behind.

Labour’s lawyer-leader might also appeal to a middle-class pale-blue Nationalist, something previously inexistent with the party’s marked preference for economists (Alfred Sant and Joseph Muscat), an architect (Dom Mintoff) and a doctor (Paul Boffa).

The next PN leader will hail from socially conservative wing of the party

Grech campaigned against the introduction of divorce in 2011 but started his campaign by opening up to a debate on abortion and promising to respect a referendum on these issues.

But his attempt to reach out to liberals faced a backlash from conservatives, and Grech committed himself to resign if a referendum approves abortion.

On his part Delia appeared more consistent with the conservatives, which is adamant against any debate on this issue.

If Grech wins...

Grech must mend bridges with Delia while keeping rebels on board

Unlike Delia who would seek to assert his power if he wins, Grech must unify the party. Any rebound in the polls needs the Delia faction on board and winning over those who resent Delia.

In short, Grech is obliged to reunify PN voters before having any chance of winning over floaters and Labour voters. If he is successful in keeping everyone on board, he would immediately start with a poll boost, which would instil hope in the party and greater interest both among potential new candidates and donors.

The Grech project would simply fail if those supporting Delia are left in the cold, emerging as a new category of abstainers in the polls. But even keeping Delia on board may create problems with the fallout from the Fenech WhatsApp convos: if Delia is implicated in any dealings with Fenech, Grech will have to choose whether to defend Delia, or kick him out at the risk of angering his supporters.

Grech will have the backing of a majority of MPs

Grech starts with one big advantage. He will enjoy the support of the majority of MPs. Others who support Delia are also likely to reach out to the new party leader whose good will would be indispensable for their re-election chances.

In short with Grech as leader, the PN will find it easier to recompose as a united opposition in parliament.

Labour would reach out to Delia faction to sabotage Grech’s poll rebound

It is clear that Labour fears Grech more but it is doing Delia no favours by ‘supporting’ him. In reality Labour is only interested in prolonging the civil war in the PN.

If Grech does win, Labour’s priority would be that of ensuring that the Delia faction remains resentful and bitter, to ensure a substantial abstention among Delia loyalists or possibly their defection to Labour.

In this way Grech would be denied a much-needed initial poll rebound to set him on a favourable trajectory and even narrow the gap in the next election to win the next one. Labour could toy with an early election, despite risking being seen as opportunistic, even with COVID-19 anxieties continuing over the next months.

Voting

Voting in the leadership election started last weekend and will continue on Thursday and Friday. Saturday will see polling booths open until 4pm.