[ANALYSIS] When is a coalition not a coalition?

Following Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando's resignation from the Nationalist Party, Lawrence Gonzi has accepted to continue leading the government supported by the newly independent MP. whom he promised to consult on the next budget and other important legislation. 

The agreement has been sold to the public as a "coalition" but it lacks many of the ingredients present in European coalition governments, based on either pre- or post-electoral agreements between two or more separate parties, who end up governing together on the basis of a joint common programme. 

In this case the 'coalition' is between the PN and an individual MP and the common programme remains the PN's electoral programme of 2008. Moreover while in Europe coalitions are the result of a multiparty democracy where more than two parties are elected to parliament, the current coalition is the direct result of an internal crisis within one of the two parties elected in parliament.

The closest thing to the JPO-Gonzi agreement was the support given to Italian ex premier Berlusconi in his final days by a loose grouping of individuals known as "the responsible MPs." 

The last days of Berlusconi

Silvio Berlsuconi was brought back to power in 2008 as the leader of the centre right 'People of Freedom', in coalition with the populist Northern League. The formation of a single centre-right party brought about by the fusion of the post-fascist National Alliance led by Gianfranco Fini and Berlusconi's own Forza Italia (Forward Italy) was seen as a step towards the simplification of the Byzantine antics of Italian politics. 

But the experiment did not endure for long, as Fini in his visible role as Speaker of the lower house of parliament, became increasingly critical of Berlusconi's highly personalised style of government and the Northern League xenophobic populism. 

In the end of the day, Fini was expelled from the "People of Freedom" party and forming his own party "Future and Liberty".

Initially Fini signalled his intention of continuing his support for government, calling for a new coalition pact extended to more centrist parties in a bid to sideline the Lega Nord.  

But in December 2010, amidst growing media speculation on Berlusconi's sexual antics, he decided to join the opposition in a crucial no-confidence vote. 

But the vote failed to pass thanks to the defection of a number of individual MPs from other parties who rallied around Berlusconi's government. Foremost among these MPs was Domenico Scilipoti an MP elected on behalf of the hard line anti corruption Values Party led by Berlsconi's nemesis, former magistrate Antonio Di Pietro.  Following the defection of two of his MPs to Berlusconi, Di Pietro denounced Berlusconi for turning parliament in to a "cattle market."

The vote helped Berlusconi endure for nearly another year in coalition with the Northern League eventually resigned in November 2011 in the midst of an acute debt crisis.

The economic crisis brought about the rise of a technical government, which is supported in parliament by a grand coalition, which includes both the "People of Freedom Party", and the centre left Democrats.  Although the two parties are not directly represented in Mario Monti's government their support is vital to ensure its survival.

The Cameron-Clegg romance

The coalition between David Cameron's Tories and Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats is a classic example of how European coalitions are formed. 

The Tories and Liberal Democrats had contested the 2009 elections as two rival parties with very distant positions on themes like Europe, immigration and electoral reform. In fact throughout the campaign the Liberal Democrats projected themselves as the real progressive alternative to the Tories, in a bid to displace Labour as the main party on the centre left. 

During the campaign polls showed the Liberal Democrats running neck and neck to Labour in polls behind David Cameron's Tories. But the actual result put the Liberal Democrats a distant third and the Conservatives winning the largest number of seats without garnering a self-sufficient majority in the House of Commons.

Nick Clegg faced a Hobson's choice between forging a 'coalition of losers' with Labour and regional parties from Scotland and Wales enjoying a wafer thin majority or doing the unthinkable and forging a coalition with the Tories. 

The elections were followed by days of intense negotiations between the Liberal Democrats and the Tories, which yielded a coalition agreement based on a more decentralised vision of government and a more radical approach to cutting the debt.

Clegg sold the agreement to a sceptical base as the only alternative to a minority Tory government and early elections, which would have given the Tories enough seats to govern alone. For Cameron, the coalition helped sideline the hard right in his party by giving a more centrist appeal.

Initially what struck the British media was the chemistry between Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Prime Minister David Cameron, which seemed to suggest that the coalition was not simply a marriage of convenience but a veritable convergence of two distinct political philosophies.

Ultimately the Liberal Democrats did win some notable concessions. While income tax for low-income earners was reduced, the Tories had to scrap plans to reduce inheritance tax.  But the Liberal Democrats paid a heavy price by breaking a campaign pledge to abolish tuition fees for university students. 

The Tory acceptance of a referendum on electoral reform also backfired as the Tories campaigned aggressively against the introduction of the Alternate Vote (AV) system, which was defeated by a huge margin.

Coupled with the reverberations of the Murdoch scandal and a resurgence of euro scepticism in the Conservative party, these factors   served to sour the relationship between the two parties even if the coalition seems destined to complete its term.

But Clegg has so far proved that coalition government can be as stable even when taking very hard decisions.  Ultimately Clegg hopes that his perseverance in seeking common ground with the Tories will convince the electorate that the Liberal Democrats are a responsible party of government and not simply a protest party. 

Germany - The stable coalition system

The German political system is characterised by stable coalitions forged after elections, which endure for a whole term. The German system evolved from a three party system, with the Liberals playing the role of kingmakers standing between Social Democrats and Christian Democrats to a four party system where the Greens became the Social Democrats' favourite partner while the Liberals shifted to the right.

The emergence of the ex communist Left Party made the system more unwieldy as it deprived the two rival groupings of a majority in the 2005 election. The result of this was the creation of a grand coalition between the two main parties led by Angela Merkel, which lasted a full term until 2009 when Angela Merkel was reconfirmed as Chancellor in coalition with the Liberals. 

The next election is expected to result in a red-green majority although the emergence of the pirate party could deprive the two parties a majority. Other options could be a traffic light coalition including the Greens, the Social Democrats and the Liberals or a Jamaica coalition including Christian Democrats, Greens and Liberals, both of which have been tried with different degrees of success at regional level. 

Pre-electoral pacts in France

France's particular electoral system based on a two round system through which the top two candidates face each other in a second round in every constituency encourages the formation of pre-electoral coalitions between parties.

In this year's election the Socialist Party had signed a pre election deal with the Green Party, based on a common programme although differences persist on themes like nuclear energy. The result was the Socialist winning a self-sufficient majority in parliament with the Greens winning their largest ever number of seats.  Differently from most other European countries, the government in France is directly appointed by the President and not by the Prime Minister. 

Francois Hollande's government is mainly composed of Socialists but it also includes Green Party leader Cecile Duflot as minister for housing and regions.

The majority price: Greece and Italy

In a bid to ensure stability, the party winning a relative majority in Greece is given 50 extra seats. But this was not enough for the conservative New Democracy to form a coalition with the Socialist in elections held in May.

But the majority price ensured a majority for the pro bailout parties in subsequent elections in June.  In Italy a similar majority price is offered to the coalition winning most votes in the chamber of parliament.  But no such price is offered in the Senate.  This discrepancy led to the fall of Prodi's government, which enjoyed a comfortable majority in the chamber of deputies but had a wafer thin majority in the Senate.  As a result the Prodi government had to rely on the votes of 5 unelected and elderly senators. 

Exceptions: Hungary and Spain

Hungary is currently led by a single party; the right wing Fidesz led by Viktor Orban who enjoys an unprecedented two-thirds majority in parliament required to change the constitution.  The party used this power to introduce controls on the media, pay homage to Christianity in the constitution and to erode the autonomy of the Central Bank.   Recent elections in Spain have also yielded a comfortable majority for the centre right popular party, which can govern alone without any need of support from other parties.