French voters pick between a peg on the nose or a stinky raspberry

For the past decades whenever France has been faced by the threat posed by the far right, socialists, communists and Gaullists have been united in a republican front to block it. So in 2002, the conservative Jacques Chirac trounced Jean Marie Le Pen with a massive 82% vote share. And in 2017 two-thirds of French voters rallied behind centrist Emanuel Macron to block the Front National’s Marie Le Pen.  

Yet while polls point towards a more modest Macron victory, who hovers around the 55% mark in most polls, four crucial changes in the French political landscape could make today’s contest less predictable than ever.  

Firstly, candidates hailing from the traditional parties of the centre-right (the Gaullists) and the centre-left (the Socialists) were supported by less than 7% of the electorate. This means that these parties have less leverage than ever even if both parties have stronger support at regional level where Macron’s movement is less rooted.  

Secondly, the centrist Macron – a novelty in 2017 – is facing the election as a tried and tested incumbent with a low approval rating of 43% and who largely disappointed voters on the left who blame him for neoliberal policies, which in turn create fertile ground for the far-right.  

Thirdly in the first round, left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon garnered 7.7 million votes, trailing Le Pen with just 400,000 votes. The former socialist who leads France Insoumise, a left-wing and sovereignist movement, has advised his voters not to give a single vote to Le Pen, but stopped short of giving support to Macron.  

In contrast, the combined vote of the pro-EU centre-left parties, namely the Socialists and the Greens, have rallied behind Macron but barely command the support of 6% of the electorate.  

And finally, Eric Zemmour’s candidature – while splitting the far-right vote – gave Le Pen the opportunity to appear more moderate, at least more in style than in substance.  

Dr Charles Xuereb sees indications that left-wing voters will in the end rally around Macron. For example, on Thursday 14 left-wing mayors of Seine-Saint-Denis, located in the northeast of Paris, called for a vote for Emmanuel Macron, believing that Marine Le Pen as president would sow “division, the promotion of a stunted French identity”.  

“They declared that ‘the farright candidate is an enemy of the Republic, while Macron is a political adversary, against whom we will have to build an opposition,” Xuereb said.  

Over 30% of Seine-Saint-Denis voters abstained in the first round, more than the national 26% average. Xuereb believes that it will be left-wing voters who supported Mélenchon who “could be the kingmakers of the next French president.”  

Prof. Roderick Pace concurs. “The contest remains tight and much depends if and how the followers of Jean-Luc Mélenchon vote”.  

Big stakes for Europe  

With war raging in the Ukraine and a long cold war looming on the horizons, the French election comes at a pivotal moment as the European Union rediscovers an enthusiasm for unity. And although Le Pen has tried to whitewash her past support for Putin’s annexation of the Crimea, Macron has emerged as a safe pair of hands and a continental leader.  

Roderick Pace notes that during last Wednesday’s presidential debate Emanuel Macron scored one important point on his rival, namely “her past admiration for Vladimir Putin and the money she borrowed from a Russian bank to finance her 2017 campaign”.  

“With a mad war taking place in Ukraine, only Macron can ensure a dependable France to continue to lead the EU democracies in their quest to end the war and stop this human tragedy.”  

Moreover, Macron has also initiated the Future of Europe conference and closer structured cooperation in defence (PESCO), which is intended to lead towards a stronger common defence for Europe.  

“The EU is on the cusp of moving forward again after 14 years of crises – the Euro, Schengen and migration, and COVID-19. It will be a pity if a statesman who dares lead the EU is dumped by his own citizens.”  

Yet it is not clear whether enthusiasm for European integration in the face of Russian aggression is enough to galvanise voters, especially in view of Mélenchon’s own ambivalence towards Putin’s Russia, whose invasion he condemned without endorsing NATO’s military assistance to Ukraine.  

French voters may give more importance to bread-and-butter issues like inflation. “However, a vote is a vote, and most times foreign policy does not win elections. A sizeable chunk of the French electorate, as elsewhere, will vote according to how they think their government is affecting their lives,” says Pace who adds that “the cost of living, perceptions on the handling of COVID-19 containment measures and the unemployment rate will probably influence them more than other considerations”.  

Did the debate change anything?  

Back in 2017 Marine Le Pen was bruised by a televised debate in which she lost her calm in a two-and-a-half-hour slanging match, that featured more invective than any other debate in French presidential history.  

But this time round Le Pen was quite prepared for the debate and did not flounder as she did last time, even if “she betrayed a lack of detailed comprehension of key issues on which she will be called to decide if elected”.  

But according to Charles Xuereb, the debate was no game-changer for Le Pen. In fact last Wednesday’s three-hour debate between the two candidates did not change the opinion of 91% of French voters according to polls.  

“Without delivering any knockout blows, 59% believed Macron came out on top.”  

Xuereb notes that although Macron “did not succeed to change his negative elite image” he effectively brought out Le Pen’s ‘dependency on the Russian regime’ accusing her of an unpaid loan of millions to finance her 2017 campaign.  

And while Macron appears to have convinced more voters as being the safest candidate to lead France and Europe on the road to continuity and solidarity, Le Pen “appears too radical”, with the proposed removal of the hijab in public, giving preferential treatment to French citizens against EU rules, threatening the 2015 Climate Change Paris accord, introducing stringent controls on immigration and withdrawing France from the NATO command while discouraging sanctions against the belligerent Kremlin.  

“Moreover Le Pen was short on detail when it came to explaining how she would finance the lowering of the retirement age to 60 years from the current 62,” Xuereb said. Still, while everything seems to point out towards a modest but resounding Macron victory, a high abstention rate, especially among left wing voters still leaves room for uncertainty.  

But with so much at stake, the peg on the nose may win keep voters from blowing a raspberry with unforeseen consequences on the rest of Europe and the world.