Brexit Q&A | 'Tough EU stance against UK would be detrimental' - Sant

What is the political future of the European project? Is this the advent for the disintegration of the EU or will it become stronger?

European leaders will need to tread carefully. Adoption of a "tough" stance towards the UK will be detrimental to the EU's own interests; too "soft" an approach runs the risk of loosening internal ties. There will be the calls for an acceleration of the unity project, proposing further "deepening" of institutions. That would be another mistake; it could create further fissures. The best approach would be consolidation after a period of reflection about how best to carry out the forthcoming exit negotiations with the UK.  

Do you think Britain will prosper or flounder outside of the EU? 

Initially, it might have economic and financial problems, some serious. I am however wary of doom and gloom scenarios. By itself, Britain is a medium-sized economy with lots of things going for it. In the medium-term, it should have the capability to reposition its economic machine in the globalised economy and occupy quite a lucrative niche. 

Will the EU now move away from the neo-liberal policies which have characterised the bloc in the last two decades?

Neo-liberal policies and practices form an integral part of the EU's SOPs. They have been reinforced in recent years through the Eurozone's efforts since 2008, to bolster its defences against national insolvencies. The UK has had no voice in eurozone policy development. 

Will other countries now feel that they can renegotiate EU membership?

Rather than renegotiating their membership conditions, which is largely a British ploy, member states will feel more empowered to resist the development of common EU policies proposed to tackle new needs or emergencies, mainly in the immigration sector, but quite possibly in other areas as well. The Visegrad group has been active in this approach and will probably now feel vindicated.

Will other countries want out?

There is already a demand by the extreme right in Holland for such a move. The big problem for the EU is that it is increasingly being perceived as some kind of Trojan horse for globalization, leaving the working and middle classes without protection when times are hard. 

With Britain out, will Malta succumb to the EU’s renewed attempts to introduce tax harmonisation and regularisation of financial services?

Whether it will "succumb", I know not. But for different reasons, different member states, not just the UK or Malta, have reservations about tax harmonisation, or the regulation of financial services, or both. Countries like Austria, Holland, Cyprus, Ireland. So the war is not yet lost, but coming battles will get increasingly riskier, without a big player like the UK in the lists. 

Can Malta benefit economically from Brexit, such as by attracting financial services, iGaming etc?

Marginally probably, the case could be made that Malta might benefit from financial services opportunities at a European level, which will be given up by the UK as a result of Brexit. Others however will be prowling to make the same killings. On iGaming, I would not rule out meanwhile developments that have nothing to do with Brexit, but that would follow the patterns of Luxleaks and the Panama papers. So...  

Could the negative effects be mitigated through bilateral agreements between Malta and the UK? 

Any negative effects on Malta due to Brexit that would be in the area of the EU acquis, can as a matter of principle only be mitigated through EU mechanisms, if available. Other effects that fall outside the EU's competence, as in many educational matters, could be dealt with through bilateral Malta-UK agreements.