Malta faces 10 more dry days a year

Malta is likely to experience more than 10 extra days each year without significant rainfall expected by the end of the century, a new report warns.

The projection is based on a middle-of-the-road climate change scenario, assuming some global efforts to limit climate change but no full achievement of net zero emissions by 2100.

This emerges from a working paper published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The exercise used advanced climate models to develop forward-looking indicators to monitor the future exposure of people and agriculture to climate-related hazards.

Days with very little rain—less than 1 mm—are used to track short-term droughts, which can quickly affect crops that need regular watering. Malta’s drought problem is exacerbated by the lack of fresh water sources and reliance on groundwater, which can only be replenished by rainfall.

Malta is not alone. Other Mediterranean countries, including Portugal, Greece, Türkiye, and Spain, are expected to see similar increases in dry spells. Malta is projected to be the second most impacted country after Portugal. Some countries, like Turkey, Spain, Greece, Israel, and Bulgaria, could face more severe drought effects on farmland. In contrast, China and Canada may experience fewer dry days by the end of the century.

The report notes that rainfall and drought forecasts are harder to predict than temperature changes, but understanding these risks is essential for planning ahead. This means Malta will need to focus on strategies to cope with longer dry periods.

The latest OECD report follows another by the Energy and Water Agency (EWA), which found that the hydrological year between 1 October 2023 and 30 September 2024 was the driest on record. Rainfall levels were so low that the islands temporarily experienced conditions typical of desert regions.

Another study, published in April 2025 in Big Data and Cognitive Computing and authored by Benjamin Mifsud Scicluna and Charles Galdies, used different climate models and scenarios to project agricultural impacts.

The study concluded that Malta’s agriculture will face increasingly severe water stress and heat exposure, with soil moisture declining significantly across most of the islands, making traditional crop cultivation increasingly difficult without adaptation measures. The problem is expected to be worse in the northern and south eastern regions of Malta, which are projected to face severe stress. Adaptation strategies include heat-tolerant crops, optimised water management, and intercropping to improve resilience.