[ANALYSIS] Hunting casts shadow on local elections

Increases in turnout were registered in both pro hunting Labour strongholds like Luqa (+14 points), Zebbug (+12 points) and Qormi  (plus 10 points) and in anti hunting PN strongholds namely Balzan (+17 points), Attard (+15 points),  Iklin (+10 points) and Swieqi (+10 points).  The greatest 'unkown' is whether Labour will make new inroads in traditionally PN leaning localities where a vast majority has voted in favour of hunting. These localities inlcude Nadur where turnout has increased by 14 points and Siggiewi where turnout has increased by 9 points.

Although Nationalist localities like Attard and Balzan registered the highest increase in turnout, any advantage for the PN deriving from this is offset by the fact that Labour localities which saw a modest but still significant increase in turnout, such as Zebbug, Qormi and Zurrieq have a much bigger population. These three localities together have a voting population of nearly 32,000 or 16% of registered voters who voted last Saturday. Since Labour voters were more inclined to vote yes, the increase in voters in these large localities is likely to benefit the PL.

Moreover the 15-point increase in turnout in Attard may well benefit AD which was the only political party contesting these elections which supported the abolition of spring hunting.  

But AD will not be a factor in other affluent PN-leaning localities such as Balzan and Swieqi and Iklin which saw an increase in turnout because of the referendum.

The turnout increase was more modest in St Paul’s Bay and Mosta, the two largest localities which may switch sides due to the small margin between the PL and the PN.

While Mosta has seen an increase of seven points, the increase in St Paul’s Bay amounted to four points.  

Both localities are located in districts which voted against spring hunting. Since PN voters were more likely to vote no, one may assume that the increase in turnout in both localities may benefit the PN.  

Disgruntlement in harbour area?

The only localities to see a decline in turnout were Isla (-2 points) and San Lawrenz in Gozo (-9 points).  The latter was an exception in Gozo and therefore the drop can be attributed to local factors, the drop in turnout in Isla coincides with small increases in turnout in various southern localities.

In fact the slight decrease in turnout in Isla and the very slight one point increase in Birgu defy the national increase in voting turnout but reflect the lower referendum turnout in the second district. Although the second district voted overwhelmingly in favour of spring hunting, only 69% voted, compared to 74% of all Maltese.

In fact turnout only increased by three points in Marsa and Santa Lucija and by two points in Floriana.    

The small three-point increase in turnout in Marsa is particularly surprising in view of the hype made by the government about closing the Marsa power station. At 69% the turnout in Marsa remains one of the lowest in the south of Malta.

The smaller increase in turnout in these localities may be an indication of disgruntlement with the PL government in its strongholds but it could also reflect a lower interest in the referendum, which pushed turnouts upwards in districts where the environmentalist or the pro hunting vote was stronger. 

One should also consider that in 2012 these localities had already registered a very high turnout. Isla already had a high 73% turnout in 2012 and despite the two-point drop it still has a higher turnout than Swieqi where only 52% voted on Saturday, despite a 10 point increase over 2012 figures.

The very low three-point increase in turnout in Nationalist-leaning St Julian’s is particularly surprising in view of the fact that 70% of voters in the tenth district voted No.  

Turnout in this locality remains at a low 40% and this should be attributed to the large number of foreign residents who have a right to vote who live in this locality. But turnout in St Julians remains a far cry from the 77% registered in local elections held in 2008. This indicates that unlike in Attard, Balzan and to a lesser extent Swieqi, the referendum has not pushed the turnout in St Julians in a way that it could substantially benefit the Nationalist Party.  

Test cases: Gozo and Siggiewi

Moreover since local elections were overshadowed by the hunting referendum, it will be interesting to see how the increase in turnout in pro hunting PN localities like Nadur and Siggiewi will work out.   

It is of particular significance that Muscat had chosen Gozo on the two occasions where he spoke extensively on the hunting issue during the campaign.

Labour may benefit from the strong pro hunting majority in Gozo.

But it may also be penalised by the vote of those who are registered in Gozo but who live in Malta. These voters do not usually vote in local elections but were spurred to do so by the referendum.  

The Gozo result will also be a test for Busuttil’s pro hunting stance in the referendum. It is clear that Gozo was the only district where a significant percentage of PN voters voted yes. Busuttil’s strategy will be vindicated if the PN manages to hold its ground in Gozo. But if Labour gains further ground in Gozo, his strategy will have failed miserably.

The elections in Gozo localities, particularly that in Nadur, will also be a major test for the PN following allegations of works for votes involving the husband of former Gozo Minister Giovanna Debono, who hails from Nadur.

Nadur,  which saw its turnout increase by 14 points, will be an interesting case study in assessing the hold of the PN in Gozo.  If the PL manages to retain Qala, which was won by a whisker in 2012, it would confirm its inroads of recent years.

The drop in turnout in San Lawrenz, a very small PN stronghold, contrasts with a sharp increase in turnout in other Gozitan localities and may be attributed to local factors. 

Another election to follow is that in Siggiewi – a locality where the PN has always enjoyed a comfortable majority but which is located in the sixth district, which also registered a strong Yes majority. But Siggiewi, where turnout increased by nine points, may itself be split between new affluent residents opposed to hunting and older residents who were more likely to vote yes.  

The loss of Siggiewi or Nadur would be catastrophic for the PN which has always won both localities.   Siggiewi appears to be more vulnerable than Nadur.  While the PN won Nadur by 16 points in 2012 it only won Siggiewi by a 4 point margin in the 2012 election.  A PL victory in either of the two localities would signal a clear shift of voters in rural Malta towards the Labour Party.

Safi is another battleground won by a whisker by the PL in 2012 but which the PL will probably retain helped by the strong showing of the yes campaign in the concurrent referendum.

Turnout in this locality has only increased by one point over 2012. But on that occasion the locality had already registered a record 85% turnout.

In urban Malta, Hamrun, which saw a six-point increase in turnout and lies in the first district, which defied the pro yes trend in all other PL-leaning districts, may also be an interesting test case to assess the state of the two parties.