WATCH | Retired colonel argues Israel faced no imminent threat from Iran

Retired colonel David Attard argued there was no imminent threat of an Iranian attack on Israel before the war on Iran.

However, Iran had been strengthening its missile capabilities, while Israel had been preparing for a potential strike.

“Israel took the initiative, but this was done in consultation with the Americans. We have seen a military build-up in the Gulf. That was a prelude to this war,” he said.

The growing tensions between Israel and Iran and the risk of a wider regional conflict were the focus of a discussion on TVM’s Xtra presented by Saviour Balzan.

Attard said for Iran this is “total war”, and pointed to attacks on US military bases and allied countries in the region, including the UK bases in Cyprus, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan.

“Munition supplies are not infinite. The Americans prepared for a war lasting roughly four to six weeks,” he said.

However, he stressed air strikes alone cannot secure control over a country.

“You cannot capture a country with aircraft alone. That can only be done with ground troops,” he said.  

There is no appetite for a ground war from the American side. Washington is more likely to rely on proxy forces, possibly led by Kurdish militias. This position was shared by Labour MEP Daniel Attard.

Attard said in meetings with Iranian-Kurdish representatives he was informed that “a revolution” is being planned, noting that it is clear the United States has broader strategic interests beyond protecting Israel.

He argued discussions should focus on the interests and wellbeing of the Iranian people and the need for de-escalation. The Labour MEP warned the Iranian population would likely be the biggest victim of any escalation.

He also called for the EU to become more strategically autonomous, particularly in the energy sector.

Economic repercussions and energy risks

Economist JP Fabri said oil prices had remained relatively stable so far this year.

However, he warned the situation could quickly change if tensions affect strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes.

Fabri also pointed to potential disruptions to global supply chains. Goods that typically arrive from China in about 20 days could take between 35 and 40 days if shipping routes are affected. This, he said, highlights Europe’s dependence on both Chinese imports and oil-based energy, making economies particularly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

Fabri questioned how sustainable Malta’s energy subsidies would remain if oil prices were to rise sharply. He suggested that in the future such subsidies may need to be more conditional, based on companies’ productivity levels or their investment in renewable energy.

Fabri also noted geopolitical instability could create opportunities for Malta’s tourism sector. If tensions or attacks affect destinations such as Dubai or Cyprus, Malta may become more attractive as a safe destination.

Maltese nationals in the region

During the programme, Foreign Affairs Minister Ian Borg joined the discussion remotely and confirmed Maltese authorities had contacted all Maltese nationals currently in the Middle East.

According to Borg, they have been informed about where to go and what steps to take should the situation deteriorate.

Borg said the situation remains highly unpredictable, with significant speculation and little clarity about how events may unfold. According to Borg, the Maltese government is preparing to absorb as much of the potential economic impact as possible.