The moment of truth

Now that the leader of the Opposition has decided to table a motion of no-confidence in the government, it would appear that the die has been cast and that the country will be facing a general election in the next months.

The only outstanding matter left is what concrete and final course of action will be taken by Franco Debono. His action in parliament will finally decide whether the country has passed from a political crisis has into a constitutional one, after which the mechanism of the highest land in the country will come into motion.

The options facing Franco Debono are basically three. To throw out the government by voting in favour of the Opposition's bill (a course of action which he has already declared he will take); to abstain, allowing for government to be saved by the casting vote of the Speaker for the second time in a few weeks; and finally, to reverse his position and vote against the motion: which will give government the legitimacy to carry on until its term expires in the middle of next year.

It is only after this course of action has been decided by Debono that we will know if we are in for a snap election, or a further (probably turbulent) 14 months of government. (To put it into perspective, Alfred Sant's government survived Mintoff's 'rebellion' by only three months).

At first, it would appear that what brought all this political crisis about is the overreaction of a hurt backbencher who was excluded in the last cabinet reshuffle. There can be little doubt, however, that this was really the last straw that broke the camel's back. There have been indications of dissatisfaction on the backbench - not limited to Debono alone - for some time now, though the present impasse has arguably taken matters to the level of a political emergency.

While fully recognising Debono's zeal, energy and reforming spirit, we cannot fail to point out that his exaggerated sense of self importance may also have clouded his judgment, leading to what is clearly an overreaction on his part.

Having said this, the writing has been on the wall for ages now: indeed, from just a few days after the last election when as a result of insensitivity shown by the Prime Minister, former ministers and back benchers were made to feel outside the loop.

The very winning slogan of the last election - GonziPN - became a mantra unto itself, and ushered in a way of doing politics that strongly suggested the prime minister had started to seriously believe that he alone was indispensable to the national interest.

Former militants and the grassroots attached to the Fenech Adami era felt orphaned; former ministers excluded from the Cabinet were brutally informed via SMS; controversial projects were allowed to just stream-roll forward despite serious misgivings among over back benchers... all this more and more left the government benches seething with enough sense of hurt and frustration to pave the way to the situation that finally broke last week. Debono's 'no' to Gonzi is simply the final countdown of a inner tension that has been simmering for some years: evidenced by earlier issues like the St John's Cathedral debacle, Gonzi's decision to vote against the referendum despite the people's verdict and numerous other cases.

This is the context within which Debono's otherwise unacceptable disloyalty must be judged. In recent media appearances, the Ghaxaq backbencher yet again insisted that his frustration arises from years of delays in the implementation of reforms he suggested - some of which incidentally enjoy considerable support amongst the electorate, which aspires to see regulation over party financing; a reform of the justice system; a more balanced, less partisan national broadcasting set-up, and many other necessary reforms.

And yet, the last days of reckoning before the non-confidence vote is taken next Thursday still offer an opportunity for these reforms to be finally given the overdue, concrete recognition they deserve. Unlikely as this may sound, the intervening few days also provide a window of opportunity for some form of rapprochement between Debono and the government that now hangs in the balance.

But even if the seemingly unbridgeable divide is bridged by means of some form of last-gasp compromise, the damage will still have been done. Gonzi may yet avoid an early election; but it cannot avoid the perception of a government that is clinging to power by less than a thread.

Either way, the moment of truth is fast approaching for Debono, his government and also the opposition. With a vote of no-confidence now unavoidable, the ball has been thrown into Debono's court. His vote will decide the country's political agenda, as well as its immediate future.