The ayatollah is dead. What’s next?

The question we pose in this leader is not rhetorical. It is a question that required an answer before the US and Israel decided to wage war on Iran.

So far, the end-game of Operation Epic Fury, as it has been called by Washington, remains nebulous. Indeed, the Americans and Israelis have been giving mixed messages as to what they intend to achieve with the aerial bombing campaign.

From regime change to eliminating Iran’s nuclear production capabilities to degrading their ballistic missile arsenal to creating the conditions for Iranians to rise up and overthrow the religious dictatorship, the messages coming out of Washington have been confusing.

Each of these outcomes would require different courses of action. However, all would require a justification with a basis in international law. Unfortunately, no legal justification was put forward and serious questions have been raised as to whether the attacks by the US and Israel are even lawful.

To make things more bizarre, the attacks started while negotiations between the US and Iran over the latter’s nuclear programme were underway in Oman, and according to the Omani foreign minister were progressing well.

But why does it matter whether the attacks are lawful or not? It matters because the alternative is the law of the jungle, where might is right; and that is a situation, which makes weaker countries, like Malta, unsafe. It matters because war must never be a capricious course of action.

On Monday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave yet another reason as to why the US attacked Iran. He effectively stated that the US strikes were a pre-emptive move since Israel had already decided to attack. What Rubio means is that the US was dragged into this war by Israel and it was not taking any chances to wait for Iran’s retaliation. This explains the lack of clarity that has underpinned the strategy thus far.

Without a defined achievable objective, the whole operation risks ending up into a forever war, which will still leave Iranians in the grasp of a murderous regime.

The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appears to be one of the objectives of US and Israeli strikes on Tehran. It was achieved on the first day. But on its own this will not achieve regime change just as the capture of Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela has not led to a freer country.

Indeed, never in the world’s history has regime change ever been achieved through an aerial or remote bombardment campaign. US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are attempting to defy history when trying to force change in Iran by smart bombs and fighter jets. It is a plan that will fail.

Don’t get us wrong; we despise the Iranian regime. It is a dictatorship that has stifled its people and brutally crushed any opposition. Only a few weeks ago, thousands of demonstrators were arrested, killed and injured. It is time that Iran’s clerics and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard realise their time is up. The chokehold of Islamic radicalism on a proud nation with deep historical roots must be lifted.

Admittedly, military intervention can dislodge some of the levers of power and expedite the process of change but at the end of the day, what matters is whether the Iranian people can find the will to stand up, push back and fight for their rights. Despite the growing number of protests in Iran over the past eight years, the regime remains strong and defiant. And that predicament, ugly and condemnable as it may be, is unlikely to change with a war from the skies.

What we’ve witnessed so far are retaliatory attacks by Iran on neighbouring countries that have caused destruction, death and unease. Even the British military base of Akrotiri in Cyprus was targeted, prompting other EU countries to step in and help boost Cypriot air defences. Iran’s actions are condemnable as is its policy of sponsoring terroristic organisations like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine and the Houthis in Yemen.

Iran is playing the only card it has to exert leverage: Disrupt the world economy and send the Middle East up in flames. And this brings us back to our original question: The ayatollah is dead but what’s next?

We just hope that the man in Washington has an answer before the Gulf region and the world enter into a dangerous downward spiral of no return.