PN in free-fall, decline across the board for Labour except Gozo, Qormi

Labour has lost votes in all districts in 2022 except Gozo and the sixth district which includes Qormi, Luqa and Siggiewi, while the PN has lost votes in all districts.

In Gozo, the PN lost 781 votes from 2017 while Labour gained 877 in the clearest indication of a shift from the PN to the PL in a district where the PN’s share of the vote has clamorously dropped from 55% in 2008 to 44% now.

On the sixth district which includes Qormi, Luqa and Siggiewi, Labour also gained 389 votes while the PN lost 487 in another indication of a clear shift from the PN to the PL. The PN’s losses in the district coincided with the decision by former PN general-secretary and district heavyweight Clyde Puli not to contest this election. And while Jerome Caruana Cilia has emerged as an even stronger district heavyweight, Labour has further consolidated its majority on this strategic district.

In a further indication of a shift to Labour, the sixth and 13th districts where the only two districts which saw an increase in the total number of votes casts, compared to 2017, in an election marked by mass abstention.

While Gozo saw votes cast increase by 522 over 2017, the Qormi district saw voters increase by 209. All other districts experienced a drop in the number of votes cast.

In contrast to Labour, which gained more votes in these two districts, the PN lost votes on all districts with losses ranging from a massive 1,950 votes in the first district (Valletta and Hamrun) to 366 in the third district which includes Zejtun and Marsaskala.

Both parties lost the least amount of votes in the third district where Labour only lost 378 votes, in an indication that the U-turn on the Marsaskala marina in the early days of the campaign paid off in arresting Labour’s potential losses.

Where Labour lost most votes

Labour lost over 1,000 votes in two district strongholds and in three PN-leaning districts. The sharpest losses were experienced on the fourth district, which includes Fgura, Paola and Tarxien where the party lost 1,164 votes, followed by the loss of 1,110 votes in the party’s Cottonera district. This suggests a degree of dissatisfaction in less affluent districts among working class voters.

The second district result is particularly significant as this was contested by Labour leader Robert Abela and was previously contested by Joseph Muscat. But in a clear indication that Muscat had a more powerful hold in Labour heartlands, Abela got 2,980 votes less than his predecessor. And while in 2017 the Muscat vote represented 85% of Labour’s total vote in the district, the Abela vote represents 72% of Labour’s total. In a clear indication that a segment of Labour voters on this district did not vote, the second district also registered a 3,580-vote drop in valid votes cast in the election, which was the sharpest to be recorded in this election.

But Labour also lost 1,086 votes in the ninth district, which includes Msida, San Gwann and Swieqi, and 1,034 votes in the tenth districts, which includes Gzira, Sliema and St Julian’s. Labour also lost 1,023 votes in the eighth ‘Birkirkara’ districts. This suggests that Labour faced dissatisfaction in both working-class areas and in more affluent localities, which may include switchers recoiling at corruption and over-development. This was clearly not the case in Gozo, where anger at over-development did not result in any losses for Labour.

Labour lost more votes than the PN in four districts: the fourth (Fgura, Poala and Tarxien), the second (Cottonera), the third (Marsaskala and Zejtun) and the seventh (Zebbug and Attard). But the PN lost more votes than the PL in all other districts.

Where PN lost most votes

The PN lost the largest amount of votes in the first district, which includes Valletta and Hamrun, where it lost 1,950 votes over 2017. The drop in the first district is particularly significant as this district stood out as the most evenly split of the southern districts.

But the PN last won a majority in this district in 2003, when the party won 52% of the vote share, which mirrored the share of the party’s national support. The PN’s share of the vote had already shrunk to 42% in 2017 and has now reached rock bottom at 37%. The decline would have been even sharper had the PL not lost 819 votes from its 2017 tally. One notable absence on the PN’s list in this election was that of Claudio Grech who decided not to contest to pave the way for new blood.

The first district also saw a sharp drop in the number of votes cast, which decreased by 2,512 in an indication that a sizeable number of PN voters in this district either stayed at home or spoiled the vote.

The PN’s second largest drop from 2017 took place in the tenth ‘Sliema’ district stronghold where the party lost 1,643 votes. Since the district also saw a massive 2,151 drop in turnout, it is also likely that a large segment of PN voters stayed at home.

But this district also saw third parties increase their vote from 388 to 904. This could be an indication that a chunk of the 1,016 votes gained by former PD leader Marlene Farrugia who contested on the PN’s list in 2017, went to third parties and Arnold Cassola. And it could mean that the PN’s coalition with the PD in 2017 made it easier for some voters to put a peg on their nose to vote PN.

Another sharp drop for the PN was registered on the neighbouring PN stronghold, the ninth district, where the party lost 1,136 votes. Possibly influencing the drop in turnout was the absence of Kristy Debono, who back in 2017 had been elected with 4,022 votes.

The PN also lost a sizeable 1,092 votes on the 12th district, where its party share dipped to below 50%. But this was partly offset by Labour’s 875-vote drop which was crucial for the PN to win a relative majority in this district, where Green Party ADPD registered its best national result (2.4%).