Five years of Robert Abela: Master of crisis, bogged down by continuity and corruption

Five years ago, party members surprisingly elected Robert Abela on a promise of "continuity and change", probably because he was perceived to be closer to Joseph Muscat than his adversary, Chris Fearne. 
In his first few weeks in office, he sought to address critics by embracing change and distancing himself from his disgraced predecessor. Five years on, Abela is increasingly mired in the corruption issues he inherited. 

Just a month after becoming Prime Minister – following the country’s deepest political crisis that led to Joseph Muscat’s resignation – Abela recorded the highest trust rating ever in a MaltaToday survey. Nearly two-thirds of respondents (63%) said they trusted him over then-opposition leader Adrian Delia. 

This remarkable result came despite Abela alienating Muscat loyalists with several key moves in his first weeks as Prime Minister, including the resignations of Police Commissioner Lawrence Cutajar and Justyne Caruana, Neville Gafà’s departure from the OPM, and the order to halt the removal of flowers from Daphne Caruana Galizia’s memorial in Valletta. 

These actions suggested that Abela’s instinct for change outweighed his promise of continuity, a sentiment that resonated with the electorate, as reflected in opinion polls. It was also Abela’s way of positioning himself as a unifier during a crisis, a trait that would surface on several other occasions. 

Iron cast in the pandemic

However, Abela’s honeymoon was abruptly interrupted by a global pandemic, an epochal challenge that tested his leadership skills. He rose to the occasion, leveraging the economic reserves inherited from his predecessor. In this sense, the crisis also underlined his dependence on the economic model he had inherited, thus making him less disposed to change it. While managing to outspend the pandemic – thanks to relaxed EU budgetary rules – Abela still managed to avoid bankrupting the country. 

The crisis also diverted attention from corruption scandals, including the fallout from the arrest of 17 Black owner Yorgen Fenech. This weakened the momentum of civil society and relegated the corruption issue in the list of public concerns. 

Abela also scored political points by refusing entry to asylum seekers and depicting NGO Repubblika as national traitors after they initiated legal proceedings against him and the army for allegedly sabotaging a migrant boat – charges which were later dismissed in court. 

While using this confrontation to strengthen his appeal among party hawks, Abela still signalled a break with the Muscat era by expelling Konrad Mizzi from the parliamentary group in June and securing Muscat’s exit from parliament in October. In his dealings with the former PM, he treaded carefully, even offering a good severance package and never blaming him for the mess he inherited. For a while, it seemed that Abela was his own man. 

Following a brief dip in popularity during the initial uncertainty, Abela’s trust ratings peaked again in April 2020, surpassing the 60% mark as Malta successfully managed the virus without a total lockdown. During this period, Abela shared the platform with leadership rival Chris Fearne, whose role as health minister, alongside Health Superintendent Charmaine Gauci, reassured the nation. In this sense, Fearne’s sobriety complemented Abela’s optimism, boosting Abela’s image among non-partisans. 

Waves in the sea 

However, as the weeks passed, the pandemic grew more frustrating for an eager Abela, who hurried to lift restrictions on bars and restaurants as summer 2020 neared, dismissing concerns with his now-infamous remark that the only waves he could see were in the sea. This declaration backfired as cases surged in August, catching Abela off guard while he was on his boat in Ragusa. Although the extension of COVID assistance kept businesses and families afloat, Abela’s popularity dipped to 40% by March 2021 amidst record case numbers. However, a successful vaccination rollout presided over by his health minister restored public confidence. 

By June, Abela’s trust ratings once again surpassed 50%, despite Malta’s greylisting by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) for shortcomings in anti-money laundering rules. COVID also had an unforeseen impact on public sentiment, fostering a greater appreciation for green and public spaces. This sentiment inevitably collided with the economic model that Abela had inherited from his predecessor. Once again, Abela reluctantly embraced change, reversing controversial decisions, such as plans for a yacht marina in Marsaskala and the transfer of public land in Żonqor to the so-called American University of Malta. 

A mandate of his own

Confident in his crisis-management credentials, Abela called an early general election in 2022, projecting himself as the steady ship captain Malta needed amidst Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He secured a landslide victory with an even larger margin than Muscat, even though Labour’s vote shrunk by 8,200 compared to 2017. This was largely due to increased abstention among Nationalist voters. 

However, inflation soon eroded purchasing power, and while Abela used public funds to shield families and businesses from energy price spikes, this strategy limited spending in other sectors, albeit without drastically impacting public finances. Still, Abela’s greatest strength remained his stewardship in difficult times. 

Despite securing his own mandate in 2022, Abela struggled to escape Muscat’s shadow. In March 2023, the courts annulled the Steward Healthcare hospitals contract, triggering a trust rating drop to an all-time low of 34% and costing Labour its supermajority. The greatest blow came in the summer of 2023 when polls showed the Nationalist Party gaining the lead for the first time, thanks to an increase in abstention in Labour’s ranks. This followed Abela’s initial resistance to a public inquiry into the death of Jean Paul Sofia, which drew widespread criticism. While he later backtracked, the damage to his trust ratings was done. 

Abela’s spectacular misjudgements 

Abela’s failure to empathise with a grieving mother marked one of his gravest political misjudgements. In this sense, it was Isabelle Bonnici who, through sheer perseverance, managed to cut Abela down to size. 

Another blunder was his reluctance to distance himself from Muscat, whose influence lingered like an albatross. Abela’s attempts to pre-empt the conclusions of a magisterial inquiry into the sale of public hospitals by attacking the inquiring magistrate only played into Muscat’s narrative. The inquiry’s findings dominated headlines during the 2024 MEP elections, where Labour’s majority shrank to just over 8,000 votes. And while Abela hoped that the timing of the inquiry would galvanise the Labour core vote, the result suggests that Muscat’s antics had cost the party support among middle-of-the-road and principled voters appalled by corruption. 

Corrections and continuity 

With his leadership weakened, Abela became even more cautious about provoking Muscat, whose allies, including Jason Micallef and Neville Gafà, continued to disrupt his leadership. Threatened by the old guard, Abela has become keener on pressing the ‘continuity’ button. The recent reappointment of Johann Buttigieg as Planning Authority CEO also suggests that Abela is increasingly reliant on Muscat-era officials in key positions, exposing his failure to co-opt a new generation of his own making. 

Moreover, Abela’s reticence to honour his own pledge to stop construction works on projects under appeal, coupled with local plan changes to accommodate the development of Villa Rosa, suggests continuity with the pro-development bias under Muscat. 

However, his recent reform of labour migration policies also suggests an attempt to ‘correct’ the excesses of the Muscat era, especially in view of disgruntlement over the increase of non-EU workers and concerns about their exploitation as a source of cheaper labour. While reforms penalising companies with a high turnover of migrants and a ban on cash payments are promising, it remains to be seen whether the reform will address wage stagnation in those sectors where imported foreign labour is most prevalent. 

Moreover, Abela still lacks the confidence of his predecessor to courageously press for progressive social reforms. Although he implemented a reform of drug laws permitting cannabis clubs, he disappointed feminists by backtracking on the issue of abortion. The presentation of a White Paper on assisted dying expected later this year could be an attempt to restore Labour’s reformist credentials. 

But Abela’s most pressing concern remains the restoration of purchasing power eroded by inflation. Facing negative polls, as confirmed by end-of-year surveys, Abela pinned his hopes on a generous tax cut announced in October’s budget. Although the tax cut's impact on personal incomes will only start appearing in pay cheques at the end of this month, the positive news was overshadowed by a scandal involving former tourism minister Clayton Bartolo, whom Abela reluctantly dismissed after initially defending him. 

Having set the bar high in his first few months in office, Abela has become increasingly cautious about losing key figures. His electoral hopes now rest on the tax cut’s potential to stimulate spending and drive economic growth further. Despite Labour’s losses in the latest polls, Abela’s trust rating has held steady at around 43%, suggesting that while his image has taken a hit, he can still turn things around in the coming months.