ANALYSIS | A hollow triumph: How Israel is winning, and condemning Itself to forever war

The current war between Israel and Iran is following a predictable path, with the Iranian regime substantially weakened and Israel asserting itself as the dominant military power in the region, having practically decapitated not just Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime, but now also the top military brass of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Iran may be able to inflict some pain on Israel by unleashing its military stockpiles, hoping that a few projectiles slip through the Iron Dome. It might afford to sustain such attacks for a few more days—or even weeks. But in the meantime, Israel is likely to have decimated most of the regime’s top military minds, likely at the cost of hundreds of Iranian civilian lives. 

But there is something hollow about this power. It depends on US weapons and the militarisation of Israeli society. Rather than behaving like a Middle Eastern state with its long-term security in mind, Israel is behaving like an ‘entity' whose sole concern is the survival of a Zionist state. 

This ideology prevents the transformation of Israel/Palestine into a multi-ethnic democracy rooted in the region. Instead, it reinforces Israel’s identity as a settler-colonial outpost in a hostile territory. 

But there is a logic in Israel’s forever war strategy. Until Israel accepts the prospect of transforming itself into a land of equal rights for all its inhabitants, it has no choice but to act like an entity rather than a state—one whose survival depends on scorching the earth around it.  And that is what Netanyahu is doing; ensuring the elimination of any threat even at the cost of unleashing hell.  Perhaps the fact that he faces corruption charges drives him further in to this path, but it would be mistaken to think this is his sole motivation. 

Sure, I have no qualms about seeing one of the most brutal and oppressive regimes—which wages war against women, LGBTQ people, leftists and democrats—falling apart.  But Netanyahu’s talk of regime change is premature and possibly counterproductive. In the short term, Israeli attacks may well inflame Iranian nationalism, although I’m not sure whether educated and younger Iranians, scarred by the brutality inflicted during recent protests, will rally behind the Ayatollahs. 

And while nobody wants to see a nuclear-armed Iran, we should not forget that Israel—currently behaving like a rogue and criminal state—is itself a nuclear power.  Sure, the prospect of a Khamanei armed with nukes is troubling, but why are we so tolerant of Israel having them?

The attack against Iran could also send the message that only nuclear weapons can provide Iran with deterrence against Israeli aggression, even though, when the dust settles, it is highly unlikely that Iran will retain any such capability. Moreover, there is no compelling evidence that Iran is any closer to producing nuclear weapons. This raises the question of whether Netanyahu is simply seizing a favourable geopolitical moment—marked by the near elimination of Iranian proxies in the region and by the erratic leadership of Trump, which has given him even more latitude than the Biden administration. It remains mind boggling why Trump has green lighted an Israeli attack while negotiating with the Iranians.  This means that either Trump has been outwitted by Netanyahu or that he has been playing with the Iranians.

Furthermore, despite verbal protests by Gulf states like the Saudis, a weakened Iran ultimately serves their interests. Things may get iffy if the war disrupts the global economy and oil prices wreak havoc. There could also be unintended consequences, with Russia, despite being one of Iran's few allies, benefiting from the windfall.

But the saddest thing is that this war has diverted attention from the use of starvation as a weapon in Gaza. For a brief time, even the UK and France began sounding critical of Israel.

But that window has now closed, due to the threat Iran is perceived to pose to Israel (even though in this case Israel was clearly the aggressor). This simply shows how easily Western democracies can relegate and forget the lives of Palestinians.  So, can we really blame them when they look up to Iran as a protector?  What have western democracies done to win Palestinian hearts and minds for liberal democracy?