[ANALYSIS] When the love is gone…

The Jeffrey-Lawrence romance | Jeffrey turned martyr | Relationship turns sour | The divorce bombshell | Ignoring the writing on the wall | A hand in Gonzi's Waterloo? | Condemning 'the gang of three' | Blame game - Part 2

First elected in parliament in 1996, Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando made a name for himself by vigorously campaigning against a cement plant proposed by Polidano Group in Siggiewi soon after being re-elected to parliament in 1998. After being re-elected in 2003, he campaigned against a temporary landfill in Qrendi proposed by former Resources Minister Ninu Zammit, a short distance away from the Mnajdra temples, presenting a 10,300 strong petition to parliament against it.

Although his loyalty was never in question, he underlined his independent streak by turning down Eddie Fenech Adami's offer to become parliamentary secretary in the Ministry of Finance, citing "professional and family-related reasons" which led him to prefer to retain his professional practice as a dentist.

The Jeffrey-Lawrence romance

In the subsequent leadership contest, Pullicino Orlando openly backed Lawrence Gonzi's candidature against John Dalli's. Pullicino Orlando's support was valuable to the Gonzi campaign as it dispelled the idea that Gonzi simply represented continuity with the past as Fenech Adami's anointed one. Not surprisingly, one of the first decisions of the new PN leader was to scrap the proposed temporary landfill in Mnajdra, since responsibility for waste was shifted from Ninu Zammit to George Pullicino.

In subsequent years, Pullicino Orlando was particularly silent on major environmental controversies, even if he is known to have made the case against the Xaghra l-Hamra golf course internally. He only declared his public opposition to the proposal in July 2006 - a few months before government publicly scrapped the project.

Pullicino Orlando explained his silence in an interview with MaltaToday in July 2006. "I do not have to organise a campaign like the one against the cement plant if my concerns are listened to. If I can pass on the message in a more discreet way and if it is coming across, why should I make a campaign?"

Pullicino Orlando also vociferously defended the controversial decision to extend building boundaries in 2006, arguing that it was better for a Nationalist government to close the process rather than leave such a major decision to the Labour Party, should they be in government.

"I cannot risk leaving this sensitive task to a future Labour government. I hope that the PN will win the next election but I cannot afford to take any risks. Had we left this chapter open, in the remote eventuality of a Labour victory, Alfred Sant would have had a free hand to adjust the boundaries on a case-by-case basis."

Ironically, the environment proved to be Pullicino Orlando's Achilles' heel in the election, after Labour leader Alfred Sant revealed that he was the owner of the land earmarked for the development of the spin valley disco in an application presented in 2005 and approved by the Malta Environment and Planning Authority in November 2007.

Jeffrey turned martyr

The Nationalist Party's masterstroke was to transform the Mistra scandal from being a source of embarrassment into an electoral opportunity, in which Pullicino Orlando played the role as the aggrieved party, mainly thanks to the young MP's charm, which sharply contrasted with Sant's austere character.

The party's response to Sant's half-baked revelations was to have a press card issued by the Department of Information for Pullicino Orlando to force a public showdown with Sant.

On his part, Sant played the PN's game, refusing the confrontation and only producing the contract proving Pullicino Orlando's involvement as owner of the land only in the final debate with Gonzi, when people had already made up their mind on the issue and for whom they were going to vote for.

In an interview published in MaltaToday in June 2009, he revealed that before the general election, when he faced Sant's allegations on Mistra, he had acted according to the instructions he received from Richard Cachia Caruana. "He would always give the instructions. The Prime Minister told me to follow his instructions to the letter. And I did."

This probably had a determining role in future relations between Gonzi and Pullicino Orlando, with the latter feeling used by the machine to secure victory, and the former embarrassed by the long-term political fall out of the case, which outlasted the election.

Faced with the embarrassment of an environmental scandal involving Pullicino Orlando at the very moment when he was proclaiming his environmental credentials, Gonzi walked on a tight-rope, and chose to attack Alfred Sant for not confronting Pullicino Orlando while stopping short of defending Pullicino Orlando. 

Replying to a question at a press conference, Gonzi attacked Sant for missing the golden opportunity to face Pullicino Orlando following the accusations he had made.

According to Gonzi, Sant only knew how to make accusations and allegations but refused to be challenged and to face the person he would have accused.

But the same Gonzi insisted that his own role was not "to defend anyone". Instead he wrote a letter to MEPA auditor Joe Falzon asking him to investigate the case and if something irregular was found, the persons responsible would be held to account.

The end result of this strategy was that Pullicino Orlando was elected from two districts with a record 5,131 votes, Gonzi was elected with a one-seat majority and the MEPA auditor produced a damning report hitting out at MEPA's approval of the disco. 

Eventually the permit was revoked and charges of trading in influence were brought against MEPA and MTA officials who were later acquitted.

Inevitably, Pullicino Orlando found himself in the firing line not just of the independent and Labour-friendly media but also of the Nationalist-leaning media.  This was interpreted by Pullicino Orlando as a sign that the higher powers wanted him to resign and vacate his seat.

Relationship turns sour

Yet, rather than withdrawing to the political wilderness, Pullicino Orlando only became more vocal on a series of issues where he found himself at odds with the new government, carving a niche for himself in the troubled waters of Gonzi's one-seat majority. 

In so doing, he exorcised the memories of the Mistra scandal, which evaporated from the Labour media after the opposition sensed the bad blood running between Pullicino Orlando and Gonzi.

Pullicino Orlando has his first taste of success after government was forced to withdraw a project by the St John's Co-Cathedral Foundation - of which Richard Cachia Caruana is a member - to excavate a museum under the cathedral.

Then, Pullicino Orlando toyed with dangerous ideas like sending immigrants back to within "swimming distance" of Libya.

Still, this did not stop Gonzi from appointing Pullicino Orlando to the post of Chairman of the Malta Council for Science and Technology after the latter had turned down an offer to serve as parliamentary assistant in the Office of the Prime Minister.  Had he accepted he would have been formally barred by the code of ethics regulating the post from embarrassing the Prime Minister, a rule which was completely disregarded by fellow backbencher Franco Debono.

But this was only the prelude to the biggest shock of the legislature - Pullicino Orlando's private member's bill on divorce.

The divorce bombshell

On 6 July 2010 Pullicino Orlando surprised Gonzi and everyone else with a private member's bill on divorce, which caused a tremor in the party's conservative establishment, exposing Gonzi's conservatism on moral issues and the rift between the secular and confessional wings in the PN.

But what was most politically significant was that Pullicino Orlando had taken the entire country by storm by acting behind his own Prime Minister's back. Probably this was the only reason why divorce made it to the statute books, though it also raised questions on the MP's loyalty.

In the forthcoming months, Pullicino Orlando excelled in political brinkmanship, immediately taking on board Gonzi's suggestion that the issue should be settled in a referendum and coming to an agreement with him to have the issue settled before the election.

But while Gonzi wanted the referendum as an instrument to confirm a previous vote in parliament - thus saving himself from the embarrassment of having to vote against divorce if the electorate voted for its introduction - Pullicino Orlando was keen on having the referendum before the vote in parliament.

In the end, the Pullicino Orlando and Jesmond Mugliett tandem teamed up with the Opposition to approve a motion setting a date and specifying the wording of the referendum question in a "free vote" granted by Gonzi himself.

Faced with an issue of principle like divorce, which attracted support from across the political spectrum, Gonzi steered away from a showdown with Pullicino Orlando, giving him a free vote whenever the divorce issue was debated before and after the referendum.

But Gonzi also failed to send an olive branch to Pullicino Orlando after the referendum, when reason would have dictated elevating the rebel MP as a reference point for liberal Nationalists. For despite the embarrassment for Gonzi, Pullicino Orlando may well have done his party a favour by ensuring that the issue was resolved before the general election, depriving the Opposition of an electoral asset.

Still, the defection of loose JPO allies like Deborah Schembri - a former Nationalist who defected to Labour - could well have increased distrust of Pullicino Orlando among the higher echelons of the party.

Moreover, by still voting against the result in subsequent parliamentary votes, Gonzi simply confirmed his allegiance to the conservative wing of the party even if he could not avoid the fate of seeing the divorce bill approved under his watch. It was the fate Gonzi dreaded most in his calculations on the divorce referendum, and JPO was the man who drove him into this valley of thorns.

Ignoring the writing on the wall

Gonzi also failed to sense the danger coming from Pullicino Orlando's declaration that he would not contest the next election. This effectively turned Pullicino Orlando into a loose canon, with no obligations towards the Nationalist electorate.

Yet in subsequent months, Pullicino Orlando did not seem interested in undermining Gonzi in parliament, adopting an aloof stance towards Franco Debono's parliamentary antics, and voting for the government in all strategic votes - including the one in which Debono voted against Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici.

Still, Pullicino Orlando also sent strong messages to Gonzi by failing to turn up for the vote in which the PM was confirmed by 96% of council members and expressing the view that the only way out of the crisis was an early election, despite fully knowing that all polls suggested that this would result in a Labour victory.

A hand in Gonzi's Waterloo?

Yet despite the writing on the wall, Gonzi was caught off guard when Pullicino Orlando tripped the government by voting with the opposition in its motion against Cachia Caruana.

The party's inability to anticipate Pullicino Orlando's moves is even more surprising in view of the timing of the Opposition's motion, which coincided with Pullicino Orlando's direct reference to the Wikileaks cable eight months after it was published in MaltaToday.

It was also extremely unlikely for the PL to present a similar motion without having clear indications from the other side that the motion would pass.

Strangely, Pullicino Orlando escaped the PM's radar, probably because Pullicino Orlando kept all his cards to himself. Pullicino Orlando himself admits telling Cachia Caruana a few days before the vote that "his vote would not be personal".

However during his speech, while hinting at the central issue that government should have sought parliamentary approval for the reactivation of  Partnership for Peace membership, he also hit out at Cachia Caruana for having used media acolytes to target critics of the PN and the government. 

The blow was all the more devastating, as it undid Gonzi's previous efforts to put his government back on track after recovering from the blow inflicted by Debono less than a month before.

Gonzi was so surprised by Pullicino Orlando's vote that he did not even refer to Pullicino Orlando in a speech delivered after the shock announcement, sticking to an already prepared speech lambasting the Opposition for its opportunism, ignoring the new elephant in the room. 

Yet in this case, Gonzi appeared to be more visibly distraught than when he confronted Debono.

His subsequent silence could be interpreted as a sign that he knows that with Pullicino Orlando he faces an entirely different ball game, having already got a taste of his brinkmanship on the divorce issue. It also suggests a deep well of accumulated pain on both sides, which makes a 'forced cohabitation' between the two even more difficult.

Condemning 'the gang of three'

While Gonzi remained silent on Pullicino Orlando's actions, the party executive has pounced by condemning him, along with Franco Debono, who had voted against Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici but not against Richard Cachia Caruana and Jesmond Mugliett, who had only abstained in the motion against Cachia Caruana. 

This may well have been an impulsive reaction by party hawks like Austin Gatt, taken without much thought to consequences. For what sense does it make to "unite" the three rebel MPs and push them outside the party despite the government's reliance on their vote?

This could well be a way of channelling the anger of the party's grassroots against rebel MPs without directly involving Gonzi in the process. 

But there could also be a deeper logic behind the executive's decision which takes the conflict with the rebels away from parliament where Gonzi enjoys a fragile one-seat majority to the party where Gonzi enjoys a 96% majority. 

Although lumping the three together is risky, the party could also bank on divisions between them. 

For while Pullicino has nothing to lose - having already announced he will not be contesting the next election - the other two might still have ambitions. On his part, Debono may well be seduced with the promise of reforms undertaken on his behest. Mugliett has already distanced himself from Pullicino Orlando's more personal attacks on Cachia Caruana, sticking to the point that parliament should have been consulted. 

Still, the risk is that the party's decisions with regards to the rebel MPs could reverberate back on it in parliament.  The party may well stop at condemning the MPs and stop short of further sanctions and move on to avoid any further troubles for the administration. 

But Gonzi's own failure to rule out the expulsion of the three MPs by saying that "this is an internal party matter for the PN to consider", suggests that he is now looking for an internal showdown. The escalation continued as the PN challenged Pullicino Orlando substantiate claims that 10 Nationalist MPs "wanted to vote" for the motion against Cachia Caruana, publishing the signed declaration of 33 MPs rejecting this claim.

The escalation suggests that Gonzi is now sensitive to criticism that he has allowed the problem to fester for too long, by being too magnanimous towards dissent on his benches. He can no longer ignore the three elephants in the room. But once again, rather than taking the bull by its horns himself, he is delegating the nasty task of enforcing party discipline to the hawks in the party's administration.

Ironically, the same Prime Minister who had no qualms participating in the 'Prime Minister for a day' event (organised by the Nationalist Party) while fulfilling his official duties is going to great lengths to make a sharp distinction between party and state, by shifting all responsibility over disciplining the rebel MPs' to the party.

Blame game - Part 2

On his part, Gonzi may well resort to the same poker game he played with a degree of success with Franco Debono, banking on the MPs unwillingness to bring the government down. 

But he also knows that Pullicino Orlando can be even more unpredictable and harder to decipher. In the past months, while voting for government, Pullicino Orlando has advised the Prime Minister to go for an early election, in which he would not contest and which Labour would probably win. If pushed too hard by the party, he might well make this happen.

Contrary to what he did after similar motions against Austin Gatt and Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici, Gonzi has not called for a vote of confidence in his government. 

But in the absence of another vote of confidence moved by the opposition and supported by Pullicino Orlando, the government can still survive until the summer recess.   

But in the absence of parliamentary sittings during the summer recess, the party could gain valuable time to discipline or approach the rebel MPs without the risk of Gonzi facing any reverberations in parliament. 

By the end of summer, the Prime Minister will have a clearer idea of whether he can hang on to power till the end or whether an election is now inevitable.  One signal that an election is looming would be an intensification of the campaign against the rebels.

If the party embarks on this path, its best gamble would be to push Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando into Labour's embrace, thus confirming the suspicion raised by the collusion between the rebel MP and the opposition in last Monday's vote. Pullicino Orlando's absolute silence on Muscat's policies adds fuel to speculation that the rebel MP is in cahoots with the opposition.

Still, party strategists will be asking whether it is in the party's best interests to call an election on his own steam after the summer recess, thus taking the initiative, or to put the onus of bringing the government down on one of the rebel MPs.

The moment of truth will come after parliament reconvenes after summer. 

Gonzi might well tempt his luck, proceeding with the presentation of a pre-electoral budget, putting once again the onus of blame on the rebel MPs calling their bluff to bring down the government on subsequent money bills. 

In such circumstances, it will be easier on Gonzi's part to depict any dissent in a budget vote as an attempt to undermine the country's economy right amidst the eurozone crisis. This will make it very difficult for the rebel MPs to vote against the government. If the budget passes, Gonzi might well serve right up to the end, and face the final showdown with Labour in its due date after completing infrastructural projects, present pending bills on cohabitation and IVF, which could bridge towards liberal voters and presenting a targeted budget. Reason still seems to dictate such a course. 

On the other hand, it could be politically convenient for Gonzi to avoid a difficult budget where his space of manoeuvre is very tight due to the eurozone crisis and shelve some of these contentious issues, by blaming an early election on the 'gang of three'.

Ultimately, after last Monday's Waterloo, a post-summer election is more likely than ever, but such an outcome is still not inevitable.

For much depends on what could be the last chapter in a prolonged crisis, which could exacerbate nerves on both sides of the Nationalist divide, and whether Gonzi himself wants to govern in the difficult months ahead.