North Korea's new ballistic missile: analysis

Pyongyang test-fired another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and according to experts, there is a major advancement in both the technology and the threat.

Images of the Hawsong-15, released on Thursday by the North Korean state media, showed a large, tall missile that appeared to be significantly wider than the Hawsong-14, which was their most-advanced missile and was launched over Japan twice in July.

“They wanted [to be able] to hit all of the US and they wanted something big to hit it with,” said research associate David Schmerler, at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies (CNC).

“This seems on the surface level to be that missile.”

An image released Thursday, November 30 purports to show the Hwasong-15 missile launched on Wednesday

"This isn't just a big missile for North Korea this is a big missile in general," Michael Duitsman, also research associate said.

"There are not a lot of countries who could build a missile this big and have it work."

Schmerler said it was "a lot bigger width wise, especially the second-stage, than the previous ICBM."

ICBMs use multiple stages, each containing its own engines and propellant, to carry their payloads up into space, around the earth, and then down towards their target.

While North Korea has demonstrated significant potential range in  previous missile tests, some experts have cast doubt on whether the same distance could be achieved by a rocket carrying a heavy nuclear warhead.

Pyongyang seemed to clap back at those sceptics in a statement after Wednesday's launch, which said the Hwasong-15 was "capable of carrying a super-heavy nuclear warhead."

"This system has much greater advantages in its tactical and technological specifications and technical characteristics than (the) Hwasong-14," a government statement said.

While Schmerler cautioned that it was "hard to look at something and know there's a heavy object" on top of it, he said North Korea's claims should be taken seriously and Wednesday's test likely was conducted with a dummy warhead equivalent in weight to a nuclear bomb.

"They're going to try to maximize the amount of (information) you can get out of each test," he said. "They're not going to launch something for the sake of it, it makes much more sense for them to try and field a realistic decoy payload."

Shea Cotton, also a CNS research associate, said he didn't "see why they wouldn't test something with a heavy payload, when we're pretty sure they already have a missile that can hit the US."

Japanese defense minister Itsunori Onodera said Thursday the Hwasong-15 appeared to be a "new type of ICBM-class ballistic missile ... with considerable capability."

North Korea's most advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the Hwasong-15 (left) and Hwasong-14.

Another test?

Following Wednesday's launch, a North Korean official told CNN Pyongyang was not interested in diplomacy with the US until it had fully demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capabilities.

Reiterating remarks made in the past, the official said one step was to conduct an above-ground nuclear detonation or "large-scale hydrogen bomb" test. The other was the "testing of a long-range ICBM," the implication being this had been achieved with the most recent launch.

A government statement said the Hwasong-15 "is the most powerful ICBM which meets the goal of the completion of the rocket weaponry system development set by (North Korea)."

Even if the Hwasong-15 fulfills the end goal of years of missile development, Duitsman said, Pyongyang will likely want to test the system "at least one more time" before it is satisfied with its effectiveness. Two tests of the Hwasong-14 were carried out within weeks of each other in July.

"They also might still conduct practice launches," said Cotton. "To get good at launching (the missiles) in the event they have to launch them really quickly.. so we could see a few of those."