2026: So, it begins!

The year started with a big bang. I thought the business of kidnapping political leaders of countries was something of the past. The last time it happened was in 1989 in Panama.

But, at 79, Donald J. Trump is indeed something from the past, a sort of medieval mediocre narcissist with no shame and no respect for what is right or wrong.

What happens abroad has never been of great consequence to Maltese. But what is happening today with Trump disregarding international law and taking matters in his own hands, will cause great consternation in the world. It is unlawful to go into a country and act in such a shameless manner as the US did in Venezuela on Saturday.

Such a dramatic start to 2026 indicates that this year promises to be full of surprises on a global level with Trump attempting to impose his own kind vision on the world. His idea of regime change or political change is remarkable for its audacity.

Here we have someone who wants Greenland for the US and Canada as the 51st State. What we think in Malta is of no consequence on the international stage. But what is wrong is wrong, irrespective of whether the action is perpetrated against a dictator or another elected political leader. This is what international law states. But unfortunately, today, the US, Israel and Russia do not give a hoot about international law and this does not bode well.

The history of US intervention in third countries shows that this has always been followed by anarchy and chaos because there is never a clear plan for the transition of power in the wake of the vacuum that is created. The chaos and tragedy in Iraq were a case in point.

If in Malta we have any influence, it is about how our politicians act and behave when they engage in a discussion or a debate about the US. Malta can never be on the side of a bully who ignores international law. It is only a rules-based order laid down by international law that protects defenceless and small states like Malta and when that is discarded, abandoned and ignored, we are all at risk.

Within this context, Malta should not be a proponent of the Nobel Peace Prize for a primitive tyrant, whose actions are nothing more than a threat to our very own existence.

Election year?

As the year kicks off, the question we are all asking is whether this will be election year. It is a question that not even Prime Minister Robert Abela has an answer for despite ruling it out in an interview last month.

Few doubt that Abela would very much like to do his full five years. But there are a few considerations that may constrain him to act otherwise in 2026.

The first reflection is linked to the electoral ratings of Nationalist leader Alex Borg. If Borg’s ratings continue to rise, Abela will or could consider an early election. If Borg falters, then Abela will sit back and aim for an unbroken five years.

The other concern is the Yorgen Fenech trial by jury. It is the case of the decade. No one really knows what the defence could have up its sleeve but if Yorgen Fenech decides to testify, what he says could potentially have serious political implications for the Abela administration.

There is also unease over the possibility of another corruption scandal erupting that could eat away at Abela’s popularity and increase the electorate’s frustration.

Boredom and exasperation with unresolved problems such as foreign workers, construction and traffic are variables that can only hurt Abela over a long period since solutions cannot be immediate or politically palatable.

One thing I am certain of is that prolonged uncertainty over the election date can only work in the Opposition’s favour and that is something Abela will keep in mind.