First skirmishes in the ‘trust war’?

Key words in Gonzi's speech and times mentioned

Ghaqal (prudence) 23, Projects 19, Workers 18, Libya 14, Fiducja (trust) 13, Crisis 13, Maltemp (storm) 8, Direction 6

Terms used to describe Joseph Muscat

Populista (populist) 7, Superficjali (superficial) 2, Irresponsabbli (irresponsible) 2, Number of mentions of Opposition Leader 46

Somewhat more subdued than usual, attentive to his script but never losing composure, Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi launched a clinical attack on Joseph Muscat's credibility in last Wednesday's Budget speech.

What is clear is that Muscat is so much in Gonzi's mind that he addressed him as "Leader of the Opposition" 46 times in his speech on Wednesday. He certainly could not have ignored Muscat, as he was expected to reply to his critique of the budget. But Gonzi's reply went beyond all this, and signified the sense of urgency being felt by PN strategists.

For the forthcoming electoral campaign, the first phase of which seems to have already started promises to be a complete reversal of the previous one.

During his first term in office, despite the unpopularity of his government and party, Gonzi's trust was his party's best asset against a Labour Party led by Alfred Sant. This factor was fully exploited in the election through the GonziPN strategy.

But for the past three years, polls have consistently shown Muscat as being more trusted by the Maltese than an embattled Gonzi, severely damaged by self-inflicted blows like the honoraria saga and with his space of fiscal manoeuvring seriously handicapped by the international financial crisis and rising oil prices.

While Muscat cannot afford to lose the trust advantage in the final months, Gonzi has to dent the credibility of his opponent to have a chance.

Gonzi tried to condition Muscat's speech on Monday by facing him with ten bullet questions - two of which contained damning allegations; namely, making promises related to permits in meetings with contractors and communicating with heads of government departments via email.

Muscat failed to answer these damning accusations in his speech except by promising to talk straight to both developers and environmentalists on national priorities which he failed to identify.

But he thwarted the attack by launching his own - namely, by milking the honoraria issue and promising to cut his salary if elected Prime Minister, thus evoking a direct contrast with the Prime Minister's decision to raise his own salary.

In his reply, Gonzi remained unconvincing on this issue, for the simple reason that it is impossible for any Prime Minister to justify a monetary gain for himself, let alone doing so at a time of crisis, especially if this is not done above board.

Gonzi's lame reply - that the Auditor General had found "nothing wrong" in the matter - bypasses the fact that the Auditor General has declared clearly in his report that the way the measure was implemented was "bad practice".

Gonzi dismissed Muscat's proposal of setting up a commission to determine his salary as a way of setting the clock backwards first (by reducing the salary) and then forward again - by determining a new, (presumably higher), salary.

In reality, had Gonzi done the same things back in 2008 he might well have spared himself some of the flak.

But while winning points on the honoraria issue, Muscat himself gave ammunition to Gonzi through his cosmetic attempt to sound propositive by presenting 51 proposals, most of which were vague slogans; like a "secure government for businesses", "youth before bureaucracy", "giving due importance to agriculture" or "strengthen the stipend system".

Muscat also disrespected people's intelligence by ignoring the international crisis. This gave substance to Gonzi's labelling of Muscat as a "populist", a term generally applied to rightwing parties whose voting base tends to be gullible, insular and myopic.

Muscat's inability to propose one single unpopular but necessary measure among his 51 proposals diminishes his personal gravitas at a time when politicians across Europe are taking unpopular decisions. Muscat even ignored demographic realities when he proposed solving the pension problem through economic growth.

The superficiality of Muscat's proposals played into the hands of Gonzi, who used this to reclaim the moral high ground by arguing that "this should not be a political game to enable one of us to win power... the difficult part will be how to administer this power".

Gonzi also used Muscat's weakness to exploit the Maltese characteristic distrust of change, especially when proposed by upstarts. "The Maltese maybe cunning but they are not gullible," he said.

Muscat could have scored points with the discerning electorate, by turning the tables on the government and questioning the government's commitment to reduce the public debt. But apart from using shock statistics - like the 400,000 debt accumulated every day - none of Muscat's 51 proposals concretely addresses this issue.

On his part, Gonzi was equally populist when he actually boasted of government public expenditure, contrasting the 400,000 debt figure 1 million it spends daily on health and education.

Key phrases Joseph Muscat

Ghaqal u Serjeta 8 Il-Malti forsi makkak imma mhux makku 1 (The Maltese maybe cunning but they are not gullible)

'Ma sar xejn' (Nothing has been done) 39, 'Ghaqal'  (Prudence) 30, 'Gvern immexxi minni' (A government led by me)  21, 'Hadd ma jista jemmnek' (Nobody can believe you) 21, 'Stabbilita' (stable government) 9

Hot stuff

In his speech, Muscat fully exploited the government's two main weakness: the honoraria issue and the electricity bills - probably the government's two most unpopular measures. 

For Muscat, it is vital that these issues remain high on electorate's agenda until election time, while for Gonzi it is vital that Malta's ability to weather the international storm takes prominence.

But while Muscat scored points on the honoraria issue, he failed to convincingly explain how he would decrease electricity bills in a "realistic and sustainable way". 

However, Muscat is right to question the government's delay to opt for gas instead of heavy fuel oil and to lambaste Gonzi for the lack of energy policy (which will be approved after all decisions have been taken).

The Prime Minister effectively dismissed Muscat's solution of reducing the factoring in of Enemalta's return on capital in the bills as a way of shifting the problem from the consumer to the taxpayer, who are essentially the same.

Muscat's latest stratagem was to give a cautious endorsement, using the phrase "we are very confident" on a new technological development - first mentioned by EU Commissioner John Dalli - whose proponents promise to reduce energy bills by half. 

On his part, the Prime Minister expressed his doubts on whether Muscat had actually seen technical reports on this technology. He also added that so far, he had no favourable report on this technology. This raises the question: does any negative report exist on this technology, and if so, why doesn't the government publish it?

On the other hand, is it correct for an opposition leader to endorse, albeit cautiously, a technological process proposed by a private company linking a highly technical debate which few can understand to a highly charged political controversy on utility bills?

The risk of such a strategy is that even science and technology are turned in to political football.

The government has already set the wrong example by linking the use of gasoil instead of HFO in the new Delimara power station to an increase in tariffs.

It would be worthwhile for the Prime Minister and the Opposition to agree on the setting up of a committee of technical experts to assess the potential of new technologies and thus ensuring that everyone is given a fair hearing. 

And the winner is...

Throughout this week, Muscat kept making inroads with disgruntled Nationalist voters, who have lost all hope in the present administration and for whom change after 25 years of PN governments is the priority.   

On the other hand, Gonzi is holding his ground with his own supporters, while trying to make inroads among those across the political spectrum who fear throwing the baby with the bath water if Muscat becomes Prime Minister.

Both politicians probably scored points in these two strategic constituencies.  Ultimately, the outcome of the next election will depend on which of these two constituencies is the biggest.