Parties in a stalemate

MaltaToday’s March survey released last Sunday, pretty much confirms the trend that has been developing since October last year—the two major political parties are caught in a stalemate.

Since October, MaltaToday surveys have consistently given the PL an advantage over the PN of between 7,500 votes and 9,300 votes, averaging around three percentage points. Turnout has consistently hovered around the 81% mark.

Vincent Marmara’s surveys have also shown a similar trend, however, with a margin of difference between the two parties that is three times as much.

What is clear is that with Alex Borg as leader the Nationalist Party has managed to win back a lot of its lost sheep. Previously, many Nationalist voters opted to abstain when asked who they will vote for. The PN now is retaining much more voters from its 2022 election cohort. And yet, the Opposition has plateaued and has been unable to continue surging forward.

On the other hand, the Labour Party has lost its election supermajority and although it remains in front, it is hampered by former Labour voters who do not want to vote.

Given the higher trust rating Robert Abela enjoys over Alex Borg and government’s relatively good performance (3 out of 5), the MaltaToday survey numbers suggest that the PL has more room to grow if Abela can convince his own voters from 2022 not to boycott the election.

As things stand, the series of snapshots since last October indicate that if an election is held now, the Labour Party is likely to win with a significantly reduced margin.

Whether the PL can win with a bigger margin or the PN can overturn the result and clinch victory, depends solely on the parties’ abilities to convince undecided voters.

It also depends on whether they are able to connect with the large cohort of non-voters.

Deciphering who these non-voters are and the reasons for not wanting to vote is the hardest nut to crack for strategists at Mile End and Dar Ċentrali.

For many, the reasons could boil down to personal grievances, some of which are justified and some not. Among this category, the Labour Party has the advantage of incumbency and over the coming weeks and months we could expect ministers bending over backward to try and fix these grievances.

Any legitimate fix should benefit people across the board and should not be targeted solely at the individual being helped. If a senseless bureaucratic hurdle is denying access to a deserved public service, it should be removed for everyone in that predicament. On the other hand, we hope that no illegitimate demands are entertained. Doing so will create an injustice and continue to erode the moral fibre of this country.

Meanwhile, for new voters, the reasons not to vote may emanate from apathy that sees them estranged from the world of politics. This would require the political parties to speak a language these new voters can understand and are willing to listen to.

And yet, there are also voters, who feel the binary choice between two giant political parties is no choice at all and opt to abstain in protest. These are probably the hardest segment of non-voters to address. They are disillusioned by the political system and are no longer tuning in.

The PL will have to convince them it can change course; take critic­­­­­­ism in its stride; address concerns in an effective and efficient way without creating injustice, while pledging to continue listening all the while. It’s a tall order indeed.

But the PN has an even harder task since they not only have to prove they are a better alternative to the PL but also a better version of themselves. The PN must eat humble pie about its time in office prior to 2013 and admit where it was wrong. Alex Borg has to prove he can act differently from Robert Abela but also his predecessors in the PN.

As for Momentum and ADPD, they must find a way to engage with what could be a potential cohort of support. These parties do not carry baggage but on the other hand they must convince voters they are able to rise up to the occasion and be a credible voice in parliament. Once again, judging by past elections, history is not on their side.

Even if the political stalemate suggests that the next election may be a forgone conclusion that would see Labour win for a record fourth time in a row, it would be a mistake for anyone to take the electorate for granted. At a time of flux, where interpreting what undecided voters will do may not be a straightforward exercise, it is the power to convince that will win the day.