No budget bounce for Labour, parties in stalemate

SUMMARY

The Labour Party and the Nationalist Party are locked in a stalemate with MaltaToday’s post-budget survey mirroring the results of last month’s poll.

The PL now leads by 7,600 votes, which is marginally lower than the 8,400-vote lead it had in October, before the budget.

The survey carried out over the past two weeks shows that the PL has not benefitted from a post-budget bounce despite enjoying strong trust in the running of the country’s finances.

The November survey shows Labour consolidating its vote in its strongholds in the southern regions but losing support in other districts. Moreover, the party is still being penalised by abstention, which shaves off a tenth of the support it obtained in the 2022 general election.

The survey, the second since Alex Borg was elected PN leader, shows a renewed sense of optimism among Nationalist voters. And while the PN has made inroads in Gozo and the northern and western regions, it still struggles in the south of Malta.

The survey indicates a slight narrowing in the trust gap between Robert Abela and Alex Borg—from 13 points in October to 10 points now.

VOTING INTENTIONS

Labour leads by three points, gets no budget bounce

The Labour Party still leads the Nationalist Party by a tight three-point margin in an indication that the budget has not swayed voters either way.

The results from MaltaToday’s post budget survey puts the PL’s support at 48.7% against the PN’s 46.1%, the same levels the parties had in October. The third-party vote collectively stands at 5.2%.

The results come from a survey of 799 respondents contacted over the past two weeks and are based on a projected turnout of 81%. Based on this projected turnout the PL is leading by 7,602 votes.

The difference between the two main parties is within the survey’s margin of error (+/-3.5 points).

The survey kicked off after the budget speeches of the respective party leaders.

As was the case last month, the gap between the two main parties is similar to that between the main parties in the 2024 MEP elections. Moreover, a survey published by MaltaToday around this time last year after the budget had the two parties neck and neck with Labour overtaking the PN by substantial margins in subsequent months and culminating in a 39,000 vote lead in June 2025.

Key to Labour’s decline is a significant increase in non-voters among those who voted for it in the 2022 general election—these increased from 6.7% in June to 9.9% in October to 11.8% now.

This suggests that the party’s stronger appeal to core voters in the past months has not paid off. But it could also suggest that in a bid to entice its core vote it has alienated the more moderate Labour voters from the 2022 general election. In fact, a regional breakdown shows the PL increasing its lead in the two Labour-leaning regions while losing support in the other four regions.

But the PL’s losses are also compounded by a small shift towards the PN as was the case last month.

In a sign of renewed enthusiasm under its new leader Alex Borg, the survey also shows that the percentage of non-voters among those who voted PN in the last general election has decreased from 10.5% in June to 5.2% in October to 5% now.

The PN now retains more of its 2022 votes than the PL does, contrary to what was the case before the election of Borg as leader. While in June the PL retained 87.2% of its votes and the PN retained 82.1%, now the PN is retaining 86.8% of its voters while the PL is retaining 78.9%. 

Small shift from PL to PN 

The survey suggests that the PN has not only consolidated its core vote but is also making small inroads among PL voters. 

The survey shows that while 7.9% of Labour voters in 2022 will now vote for the PN, the PN is losing a smaller percentage (5.4%) of its voters to the PL. However, these gains by the PN are partly offset by greater losses to third parties. While the PL only loses 1.4% of its 2022 support to third parties the PN loses 2.8% of its voters to smaller parties.

More significantly for the PN is the higher percentage of non-voters in the 2022 election who are now choosing the PN. While 17.8% of this cohort now choose the PN, only 7.7% are opting for Labour. This suggests that under the new leader the PN is attracting more former voters who abstained in 2022. 

When taking into account of the different shifts from one party or category to the other, it is the increase in abstention among PL voters which best explains the decrease in support for Robert Abela’s party.

PN leads in four regions out of six

The survey shows solid leads for the PL in the South Harbour (21.8 points) and South Eastern regions (33 points). Compared to October, support for the PL has shot up from 49.3% to 54% in the South Eastern region and from 47.4% to 49.9% in the South Harbour region.

On the other hand, the PN is now leading by substantial margins in the Northern (11.1 points) and North Harbour (10.5 points).  Support for the PN has shot up from 37.9% to 44% in the Northern region and from 38.8% to 42.9% in the North Harbour region.

But while the PN still holds Gozo by a 4.9-point margin, its support has declined by eight points. The survey also shows Gozo reporting the lowest abstention rate (16%).

It is important to note that results for regional breakdowns are only indicative due to the substantially higher margin of error in these subgroups.

PN leads among younger voters 

For the second consecutive time, the survey shows the PN leading among 16- to 35-year-olds even if its lead in this category has shrunk from eight points last month to three points now.

Nonetheless, the PL still leads the PN by nearly six points among 36- to 50-year-olds and by four points among pensioners. But the two parties are neck and neck among 51- to 65-year-olds, a category where the PL leads by less than two points.

 The survey still shows a higher abstention rate among younger voters; 24.8% among 16- to 35-year-olds and 25.5% among 36- to 50-year-olds. 

A gender-divide

One of the most surprising results of the survey is the emergence of a gender divide.  While the PL leads by a substantial 13-point margin among men, it trails the PN by eight points among women.  In the October survey the two parties were head-to-head among women, while the PL led by four points among men. While the present survey confirms the trend of previous surveys, showing greater support for the ruling party among men, the difference is starker now.  Due to the larger margin of error when analysing sub groups, this data has to be treated with caution and one has to see whether this trend persists over time.

A breakdown by education shows the PL leading by three points among the post-secondary educated and by more substantial leads among the secondary educated (nine points) and primary educated (15 points). The PN has retained a 15-point advantage among the tertiary educated, who are also the most likely to abstain (30.5%).

TRUST BAROMETER

Robert Abela leads Alex Borg by 10 points

Robert Abela is trusted with running the country by 45.2% of voters while Alex Borg scores 35.3% in a direct confrontation, MaltaToday’s post budget survey shows.

Compared to October, Borg has gained a point while Abela has lost two points, with the trust gap being reduced from 13 points to 10.  

This suggests that the budget skirmish between the two leaders has not substantially changed things—Abela emerges slightly dented but still commands a healthy lead.

The survey also suggests that despite being under increased pressure and scrutiny, the new PN leader is holding on to the momentum gained during his honeymoon phase.

Moreover, unlike his predecessor, Borg is trusted by the vast majority of PN voters—87% of which trust him over Abela.

Within this group, the percentage of those who trust neither leader has dropped from 38.1% in June when Bernard Grech was leader to 12.8% in October to just 10.2% now. In June, Grech was trusted by just 58.3% of current PN voters.

Non-voters prefer Abela to Borg 

Despite Borg’s improved ratings over his predecessor’s, the survey still shows that Abela remains substantially more trusted than the Opposition leader among current non-voters. 

Among this strategic category, while 32.3% trust Abela, only 4.6% trust Borg. This suggests that Labour has potential to grow among those respondents who prefer Abela to Borg but are still intent on not voting.    

The survey also shows both leaders making inroads among voters of the opposing camp. While 9% of PL voters in 2022 now trust Borg more than Abela, 9% of PN voters in 2022 now trust Abela more than Borg.

Borg takes the lead in Gozo and the north

Borg  is now more trusted to lead the country in three regions. In his home district, Gozo, Borg leads Abela by 15 points. The PN leader enjoys a more tenuous lead in the Northern region (2.5 points) and the North Harbour (4.1 pp).

These figures are only indicative due to the considerably larger margin of error when survey data is broken down in sub sets.  

But Borg still trails Abela by a considerable margin in the traditionally Labour-leaning South Harbour (31.7 points) and South Eastern (48.8 points) regions.

Abela has seen his trust rating skyrocket in the south east of Malta to 64.2%, up from 55.5% last month. In contrast only 15.4% trust Borg in this district.

Abela more trusted by all age groups 

Despite the PN leading the PL among the 16- to 35-year-old cohort, Robert Abela still enjoys a substantial trust lead of 11.8  points over Alex Borg in this category. This suggests that a substantial portion of younger voters presently intent on not voting still lean towards Labour.

Both Borg and Abela register their highest trust rating among over 65-year-olds. But in this category, while 47.1% trust the prime minister, 42.2% prefer Borg.

Abela also leads Borg by nearly 13 points among those aged between 36 and 50 and by nearly 10 points among those aged between 51 and 65.

Borg leads among women 

One of the most striking results in the survey is that Borg is leading Abela by over six points among women, while trailing Abela by a staggering 27 points among men.

This is not the first MaltaToday survey to have shown PN leaders faring better among women but the gender divide has never been so stark. Still, due to the substantial margin of error when analysing sub groups, one has to treat this result with caution and see whether the trend will persist in future surveys.

But Abela is still more trusted than Borg in all educational groups with the gap ranging from 20 points among the primary educated to 4.6 points among those with a post-secondary education. The tertiary educated are the most likely to trust neither leader (38.8%).

PERFORMANCE BAROMETER

Government gets satisfactory 3.1 rating

The government’s approval rating has remained stable, registering a statistically insignificant 0.1-point increase from the rating it received in October. 

As in previous surveys respondents were asked to rate the administration’s performance on a scale of 0 (very bad) to 5 (very good).  

A breakdown by age shows the government enjoying its highest rating among over 65-year-olds (3.2) and its lowest rating among those aged 36 to 50 (2.9).  

On a regional level the government’s rating ranges from 2.8 in the Northern region to 3.5 in the South Eastern region. 

Not surprisingly, current PN voters give the government the lowest rating (1.9) and current Labour voters the highest rating (4.3).   

The government also manages to get over the pass mark among current non-voters, who give the administration a positive rating of 2.9.

A breakdown by educational background shows the government registering the highest score among respondents with a primary level of education (3.5) and the lowest among those with a tertiary education (2.7).