Labour leads by 7,500 votes

SUMMARY

The gap between the Labour and Nationalist parties stands at 7,500 votes, while Robert Abela enjoys a six-point lead over Alex Borg, MaltaToday’s March survey shows.

The second survey of 2026, carried out over the past two weeks, shows little change from January with the gap marginally narrowing to 2.6 points from 3.2 points.

Meanwhile, the trust gap between the leaders widened to 6.4 points from 5.4 points in January.

The survey coincided with increased polarisation over the appointment of the chief justice and with increased global instability caused by war in Iran.

Based on a turnout of around 81%—similar to that registered in January—the gap would translate into a vote difference of around 7,500 votes, down from 9,300 in January. The difference remains within the margin of error of both surveys.

Labour continues to be penalised by a higher abstention rate among its 2022 voters. While 13.3% of former PL voters say they intend not to vote, only 5.6% of former PN voters say the same. This is the main factor explaining the reduced gap between the two major parties.

However, the survey also confirms that current non-voters are more likely to trust Robert Abela than Alex Borg to lead the country. This suggests Labour has more room to grow than the PN. The survey shows that the percentage of non-voters has remained stable, indicating that while these voters are not moving towards the Opposition, they are still keeping Labour on edge.

VOTING INTENTIONS

Labour retains three-point lead over PN but abstention remains a problem

The Labour Party remains ahead of the Nationalist Party with a lead of 2.6 points in the second MaltaToday survey in 2026.

The results put the PL’s support at 48.2% against the PN’s 45.6%. The PL loses 0.7 points and the PN loses 0.1 points from the last survey held in January.

The third-party vote collectively stands at 6.2%, up by 0.8 points from January. The percentage of non-voters has remained stable increasing slightly from 18.9% to 19.3% in two months.

The outcome indicates that the gap between the two major parties has remained stable since October. The PL is still being penalised by a higher rate of abstention among its former voters.

The results come from a survey of 784 respondents contacted over the past two weeks. Based on a projected turnout of 80.7%, the PL is leading by 7,492 votes, down from 9,262 in January. However, these small changes are statistically insignificant and fall squarely within the margin of error of the two surveys.

The difference between the two main parties also remains within the survey’s margin of error (+/-3.5 points) but Labour’s advantage has remained stable around the same mark since October.

The survey coincided with  increased political tension over the appointment of next chief justice and the fallout from an explosive sworn declaration sent to Cabinet by Judge Lawrence Mintoff, decrying his exclusion from the post by the prime minister. The second week of the survey coincided with escalating global tensions over the war in Iran.

Once again, the survey suggests that the PL’s advantage, although consistent, is still considerably lower than the 39,000 ‘super majority’ it enjoyed in the 2022 general election.

The reduced gap is mostly explained by the greater percentage of PL voters in the 2022 general election, who now intend not voting. Compared to January, the percentage of non-voters among former PL voters has remained stable at just over 13%. This suggests that Labour still struggles in its bid to recover disgruntled former voters and thus re-assemble its super majority. The downside for the PN is that instead of registering their protest by choosing the Opposition party, these voters remain parked in no man’s land. In contrast, only 5.6% of  PN voters in 2022 intend not voting. 

Overall, the PN  retains more of its 2022 votes than the PL does. While 86.3% of PN voters in 2022 will do the same in a forthcoming election, only 78.2% of PL voters will repeat the same choice.

Small shift from PL to PN 

As has been the case in previous surveys Labour’s problems are also compounded by a small shift from the PL to the PN.

The survey shows that while 6% of Labour voters in 2022 will now vote for the PN, the PN is losing a smaller percentage (3.7%) of its voters to the PL. However, these gains by the PN are partly offset by greater losses to third parties. While the PL only loses 2.5% of its 2022 support to third parties the PN loses 4.5% of its voters to smaller parties.

But the PN also benefits from a significant shift from non-voters in 2022, amongst which 20.1 % will vote PN and only 8.8% will vote PL. This is hardly surprising considering that the PN vote between the general elections in 2017 and 2022 had shrunk by 12,463 compared to a smaller 8,269-vote loss for Labour. This result, consistent with previous surveys, suggests the PN is consolidating support among the category of voters which abandoned it in the last general election.

Still, when taking into account the different shifts from one party or category to another, it is the increase in abstention among PL voters, which best explains the decrease in support for Robert Abela’s party.

South and north to PL, central Malta and Gozo to PN

The survey shows solid leads for the PL in the South Harbour (28.1 points) and South Eastern regions (18.4 points). Both regions include electoral districts with solid PL majorities. But the  PL also leads by 5.8  points in both the traditionally PN-leaning Northern region.  These results are consistent with previous surveys.

But the PN has retained a narrow lead in the North Harbour region (4.3 points) as it has done in previous surveys. The only anomaly is the PN’s 20-point lead in the Western region, which is normally evenly split.

The survey also shows the PN leading by 13.5 points in Gozo, a region which was evenly split in January. 

It is important to note that results for regional breakdowns are only indicative due to the substantially higher margin of error in these subgroups.

Middle-aged voters choose PL, young go for PN

The survey also shows the PL leading among 36- to 50-year-olds with a margin of 7.4 points and the PN leading by a similar margin (6.8 points) among 16- to 35-year-olds. The PL leads by a tight margin of 3.5 points among pensioners aged 65 and over.

The survey still shows a higher abstention rate among younger voters; 25.2% among 16- to 35-year-olds and 25.5% among 36- to 50-year-olds. The discrepancy between Robert Abela’s substantially higher trust rating in the 16- to 35-year-old bracket, where he leads Alex Borg by seven points, suggests that Labour is penalised by the high abstention rate in this category. Even among 36- to 50-year-olds, Abela enjoys a wider lead over Borg than his party enjoys over the PN.

Notably, the survey also shows a higher rate of abstention among women, 22.4% of whom say they intend not to vote, compared to 16% of men. The lower turnout among women penalises the PL. While the government party leads by a substantial 4.8 percentage points among men, the parties are neck and neck among women. This data has to be read with caution, as previous surveys have shown different trends. However, the finding reinforces a broader pattern, suggesting that the PN is currently performing better in demographic categories with higher proportions of non-voters.

Overall, this trend suggests that Labour may have more room to grow electorally than the PN. A breakdown by education shows the PL is leading by a 10-point margin among the secondary educated and by 37 points among those with a primary level of education. In contrast the PN leads by 5.6 points among the post-secondary educated and by 16 points among the tertiary educated.

Support for third parties is highest among the tertiary educated, amongst which nearly 12% will be voting for ADPD, Momentum or other parties.

TRUST BAROMETER

Robert Abela leads Alex Borg by six points

In a head-to-head confrontation, Robert Abela is trusted with running the country by 44.1% of voters, against 37.7% who opt for Alex Borg.

Abela’s trust rating has increased by 2.8 points since January and likewise, the Opposition leader has registered an upward movement of 1.8 points.

The result suggests that the heightened political tension in the past weeks over the appointment of the next chief justice has slightly benefitted Abela more than Borg. Possibly, Abela who has recovered the same level of trust as last November, also benefits from incumbency in an increasingly unstable global scenario.

But the survey also sees Alex Borg getting his best ever trust rating since being appointed PN leader last September. The survey shows Borg’s trust rating increasing by 3.6 points since October.

The survey also shows that both leaders are trusted by the vast majority of their respective party voters; while 94.6% of current PL voters trust Abela, 87.4% of PN voters trust Borg.  

But worryingly for the PN, the survey also shows that current non-voters are more likely to trust Abela than Borg. While the vast majority of them (63%) trust neither of the two leaders, only 12.3% trust Borg while 24.8% trust Abela. This suggests that Labour has more space to grow in the next months among non-voters who prefer Abela to run the country.   

The survey shows both leaders making some inroads among 2022 election voters of the opposing party. While 4.5% of PL voters in 2022 now trust Borg, 4.6% of PN voters trust Abela.  Interestingly, the percentage of PL voters in 2022 opting for Borg is lower than the percentage who would vote PN (6%) if an election is held now. In contrast, the percentage of PN voters in 2022 opting for Abela is higher than those intent on voting Labour (3.7%) now.

Abela leads in four out of six regions

As has been the trend in previous surveys Abela is leading Borg by very substantial margins in the South Eastern (24.9 points) and South Harbour (18 points) regions. Significantly, Abela also leads by 10 points in the traditionally PN-leaning Northern region. Moreover, despite the PN’s four-point lead in the North Harbour region, Abela enjoys a marginal 0.5 trust lead over Borg in this region.

Borg is trusted to lead the country in only two regions—his home district, Gozo, where he leads Abela by nine points, and for the first time, the Western region, where he leads by 12 points.

These breakdowns are only indicative due to a considerably higher margin of error among sub groups but largely confirm trends in previous surveys.

Abela more trusted by all age groups 

The survey also shows Abela leading in all age groups.  Significantly, among 16- to 35-year-olds where the PN is leading by seven points, Abela leads Borg by nearly eight points. This suggests that Labour has more space to grow in this age group where a substantial number of voters trust Abela over Borg but still intend not to vote.

Abela also leads by nearly 15 points among 36- to 50-year-olds and by 12 points among 51- to 65-year-olds. Once again, the gap between the two leaders in these age groups is substantially higher than that between the two parties. But the two leaders are nearly equally trusted by pensioners among which Abela leads by less than a point.

A breakdown by gender also shows Abela leading by nearly four points among women despite a marginal lead by the PN in the same category. But Abela’s lead among men (9%) is substantially larger than that among women (4%).

The survey confirms previous trends showing Abela leading Borg by a substantial margin among secondary educated voters (14.8%) and Borg leading by 12 points among the tertiary educated. But among the post-secondary educated, where the PN leads by 5.6 points, the two leaders are neck and neck in another indication that Abela outperforms his own party among strategic voting categories.

PERFORMANCE BAROMETER

Government gets 3 out of 5

The government’s approval rating has remained satisfactory and stable, registering a statistically insignificant 0.2-point decline from the rating it received in January.

As in previous surveys, respondents were asked to rate the “government led by Robert Abela” on a scale of 0 (very bad) to 5 (very good).

Once again the government manages to surpass the 2.5 pass mark with flying colours. The only segment giving the government a fail is PN voters.

A breakdown by age shows the government enjoying its highest rating among those aged between 51 and 65 (3.3) and its lowest among those aged over 65 (2.9).

On a regional level, the government’s rating ranges from 3.2 in the South Harbour to 3.1 in the Northern, North Harbour and South Eastern regions, to 2.8 in Gozo and 2.6 in the Western region.

Not surprisingly, current PN voters give the government the lowest rating (2.1) and current Labour voters the highest rating (4.1).   

The government also manages to get over the pass mark among current non-voters, who give the administration a positive rating of 2.6.

A breakdown by educational background shows the government registering the highest score among respondents with a primary level of education (3.4) and the lowest among those with a tertiary education (2.8).