Q&A: Franco Debono and the Cabinet reshuffle

How did it all start?

Probably in 2008, when Franco Debono's election ousted the veteran minister Louis Galea. His maiden speech in parliament called for the House of Representatives to be 'a salon of democracy' - but within a year, he would reveal himself to be a rebel backbencher when he absented himself from a vote on parliamentary committees in December 2009, forcing Speaker Louis Galea to cast his vote and secure Gonzi's majority. Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi had to visit Debono personally at his home after missing a second vote.

This led to the creation of parliamentary assistants, a new breed of backbencher to assist ministers - part of Debono's call to Gonzi to listen to MPs. Gonzi took on Debono as his parliamentary assistant.

Debono, now also a chairman of the parliamentary committee for the codification old laws, also took on new crusades: reforming the criminal justice system with his campaign to allow suspects under police interrogation the right to a lawyer. In the midst of all this, he announces he will not support Transport Minister Austin Gatt in an Opposition motion, on which he eventually abstained.

Still later, he used the law courts to vocalise his protest of the stewardship of the justice system by Carm Mifsud Bonnici, and in December announced he would oppose the minister's reforms. He also said Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi had promised him he would split the home affairs and justice ministry.

Topping it all up was his public annoyance that the PN was tolerating the campaigning of an activist, Hermann Schiavone, in Debono's district. Schiavone appears to have sleighted Debono when - according to the MP - Schiavone told the PM's head of secreteriat Edgar Galea-Curmi that Debono had authored some anonymous allegations against him back in 2003, leading him to withdraw his candidature.

What has Lawrence Gonzi done about this?

The Prime Minister has a track record of appeasement when trying to calm down tense situations that threaten his one-man majority. He was placed under pressure from day one when Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando started opposing various government initiatives. But it was Franco Debono's no-shows that prompted him to promote various backbenchers to parliamentary assistants.

When the Arriva motion came through, Gonzi diffused the Debono factor by taking control of the public transport reform; and in the criminal justice reforms Debono demanded, he said he would split the ministry for home affairs and justice. When he came to reshuffle his Cabinet, he ended up pleasing not everyone - namely, Debono himself who has called for his resignation.

Even the PN has taken measures against some activists campaigning on Debono's district, by publicly declaring they were not formally accepted candidates yet - perhaps in a bid to placate the MP.

Why did the the Prime Minister reshuffle the cabinet?

Gonzi says the reshuffle will free him of certain responsibilities and help him concentrate on dealing with the economic challenges of 2012 better. But splitting the justice and home affairs ministry was meant to appease Franco Debono when the latter said he will withdraw his support for the gernment if the split does not take place. The business world will welcome the promotion of Jason Azzopardi and Mario de Marco to ministers, who deal with SMEs and tourism operators respectively. Chris Said gets a big chunk of responsibility: justice and social policy. The ministers who lose these portfolios are Carm Mifsud Bonnici, now home affairs minister, and Dolores Cristina, now education and employment minister.

Why has the Prime Minister cut the honoraria?

Lawrence Gonzi is trying to reverse an unpopular decision that was largely his fault in not communicating it openly back in May 2008, and clearing the electoral decks. But he is also performing a big spending cut across various ministries (0.59% of gross domestic product) because Malta is being placed on notice by the European Commission to cut its deficit further or face an excessive deficit procedure - that can lead to financial sanctions.

What is the Opposition demanding?

Joseph Muscat is calling on the Prime Minister to call for a vote of confidence, while Franco Debono has already announced he will not support the Prime Minister. He has even said he must call for elections - a full 16 months before Gonzi's legislature ends.

Must Gonzi call for a vote of confidence?

The Prime Minister has already ruled out a vote of confidence or that he will call new elections. He is not obliged to call for the vote of confidence, but he can expect a tough time in parliament with the unwieldy Debono now breaking ranks with the party. Gonzi has also appointed Carm Mifsud Bonnici, now the minister for home affairs, as Leader of the House - which puts one scorned minister in charge of setting the parliamentary agenda.

Didn't Alfred Sant have to call for elections back in 1998 because of an MP?

Labour prime minister Alfred Sant was being openly challenged by former Labour leader Dom Mintoff, then a backbencher, on various votes: one of them was the Cottonera waterfront project. Governments are endangered when they don't secure a majority on a money bill. In Sant's case, he decided to call Mintoff's bluff by tieing the Cottonera vote with a vote of confidence. And that led to early elections. But he was not obliged to do it: technically, his one-seat majority could have survived, by the casting vote of the Speaker.

Has Debono scotched his political career?

Franco Debono has championed issues such as criminal justice reform, party financing reform, and holding ministers to account - all important issues that should merit popular support - but his style of demanding reform, holding the Prime Minister to ransom on certain occasions, is totally out of synch with the servitude MPs are accustomed to show their leader and party. Debono's open call for the Prime Minister's resignation now leaves him with a questionable future as a Nationalist MP.

He might consider becoming an independent MP. It is unlikely Labour would welcome him in their fold: Debono has proved himself to be an unknown quantity.

What will the Prime Minister do now?

The Prime Minister will have to take stock of how Debono will affect his one-seat majority. Even though he is ruling out early elections, having the Speaker cast his vote to bail him out on every government vote where Debono does not support him is an untenable situation. The instability that Debono can prompt in the government might not give Gonzi much room for manoeuvre.

In the meantime, Gonzi will concentrate on building up momentum for the 2013 election: improving economic performance both in terms of economic fundamentals but also reaching out to small business (which can make or break a government in an election, as it did in 1996 on the VAT issue); focus on government projects and investment to sustain job creation and heighten the feel-good factor; settle outstanding issues that are a source of unpopularity - the honoraria was one; updating laws to European norms (justice reform), or focus on civil liberty issues.

What will the PN do?

An extreme hypothesis is to change its leadership and renew the party in time for the 2013 election, to face down Joseph Muscat with a new leader. It would be an extreme change in the game-plan, but not entirely without a clear aim to trim Labour's popularity.