[ANALYSIS] Super-size me?

This time round, Labour is fighting the election on two fronts, retaining former PN voters who switched last year and mobilising the core vote. On the other hand, the PN’s mission is to mobilise its traditional voters while tacitly favouring the abstention of Labour’s so-called ‘soldiers of steel’. It is on both fronts that MaltaToday’s surveys indicate problems for Muscat.

Clearly, Labour’s intention is to score big and deal the PN a heavy blow from which it would find it hard to recover. This will enable the government to navigate the more turbulent mid-term years, where its credibility will be severely tested on issues like the economy, land use and public transport. Labour’s keen interest in winning big is evidenced by the large number of government and party billboards splashed on our roads.

The dynamics of this particular campaign are dictated by its close proximity to last year’s landslide victory for Muscat’s post-ideological “movement”. By Maltese standards this was no normal victory, but a veritable shift of voters from the PN to the PL. The question many are asking is: will elections due on 24 May cement Muscat’s insurmountable lead, or will the new result expose the 2013 result as a fluke?

Back to normal?

For if the PN manages to narrow Labour’s lead substantially, the result will restore a sense of normality in Maltese politics, with both parties being perceived as having an equal chance to win power in 2018. This will severely limit Muscat’s space of manoeuvre and condition his actions in years to come. 

On the other hand, if Muscat wins with the same margin, the PN will be dealt a lethal blow and Muscat would be given a licence to proceed ahead with the same style of government.

For the margin of victory not only demoralised the Opposition, but turned Muscat into a larger-than-life figure who inspires awe among both his supporters and adversaries.  For Labourites, he is a miracle-maker who managed to lure an impressive amount of Nationalist voters. So far this alone was sufficient for them to overlook clear departures from Labour principles. 

On the other hand, for Nationalist voters, Muscat retains an aura of invincibility and a power of seduction for a category of voters who grew up supporting the PN as the natural party of government. The greatest risk for the PN is that elections on 24 May will confirm Labour as Malta’s natural party of government.  

If this happens, the Opposition risks facing a snowball effect as Labour continues to seduce voters from the other side with the promise of a share of spoils.

The aura of invincibility gave Muscat a license to press ahead with controversial reforms like civil unions and gay adoptions, an overhaul of planning rules and the sale of passports, all of which may appeal to particular segments of his electoral block while annoying others. The sum of these annoyances may have a bearing on the turnout of PL voters on 24 May. Many undecided voters may be asking: what can we expect of Muscat if he is ‘super-sized’ by our vote on 24 May? Will we have more civil liberties or will we give hunters and speculators a blank cheque? 

Yet one tragic outcome of the election would be that of Muscat abandoning his progressive reforms in various sectors to focus exclusively on extending his support through patronage, something which could further downgrade the standards of governance.

The 2013 victory also legitimised a highly personalised style of government, where the leader has a licence to shift from hawkish positions on migration to more humanitarian considerations in the space of a few months. It also gave him a licence to press ahead with the partisan occupation of strategic posts, while sugar-coating what was, after all, a betrayal of the ‘taghna lkoll’ motto with the appointment of the odd Nationalist, like Lou Bondi.

All in all, what is at stake for Muscat is whether the result will super size him, enabling him to usher a hegemony over Maltese society similar to, but less divisive than, Mintoff’s in the 1970s, or down-size him into a normal politician who has to constantly weigh the prospect of losing consent. In a way, losing the magic of the 2013 campaign is the greatest risk faced by Muscat on 24 May.

Soldiers of steel

If there was an unfortunate moment for Muscat in this campaign, it was his attribution of the “soldiers of steel” title to Cyrus Engerer. 

In so doing, Muscat equated the plight of Labourites in the 1960s – who were denied the sacraments and buried on unconsecrated ground – with plight of a politician found guilty by the courts of a crime.

While Engerer may represent some of the progressive impulses in the party on themes like gay rights, he had to bow down from the campaign after being found guilty of committing a dishonourable – albeit personal – act. While events in 2011 suggest that the walls came tumbling down on Eneger the very moment he had defected from the PN, the comparison evoked between one of the most cherished moments in Labour’s history and Engerer’s personal misdemeanours may well backfire with the real soldiers of steel and their families.

As left-wing intellectual John Baldacchino observed on his Facebook page: “The price of steel has gone down. My father had to suffer the price of his convictions. Now every charlatan seems to deserve the title.”

In some ways Muscat’s obsession with “soldiers of steel” first evoked by Muscat during the 1 May rally, represents a real fear on the part of the Labour leader that he risks having his designs thwarted by a low turnout among Labour voters.

In fact, a large category of voters inclined towards Labour, but ultimately undecided on who to vote for (or whether they will vote at all) have been a consistent presence in surveys.

So far, surveys indicate that there are over 20,000 voters who prefer Muscat to Busuttil, but are either undecided or intent on not voting on 24 May. These include both switchers and voters who voted Labour in both 2008 and 2013.

This is why the PN is tacitly encouraging the abstention of this category by evoking a contrast between the typical Labour voter and the new clique created by Muscat, which reaps the benefits.

While some of these voters may have some ideological qualms on some of Muscat’s decisions and nuances – with some even resenting having to vote for the European Parliament due to latent euroscepticism – other hard-core voters may be playing a very old game in Maltese politics: that of securing patronage through an abstention.

Since political parties are given the names of all those who abstain, these voters will be in a better position to be taken care of before the 2018 general election. 

Another problem for Labour is how to win back traditional voters while retaining its appeal among switchers. The comparison between Engerer and soldiers of steel may have mobilised some traditional voters, but it may have also irked middle of the road voters. Muscat has certainly been careful to address some of these voters’ concerns. For example, faced with a motion by the Opposition, the Ta’ Hagrat permit was withdrawn months after being approved on appeal by a planning board appointed by the present administration.

Muscat’s migration boomerang

On migration, Muscat has also been wary of using the same rhetoric he used last year when he invited Europe to wake up and smell the coffee, something which made him more popular in society at large but evoked strong revulsion among a strategic segment of educated liberal voters. 

Yet by being so hawkish last year, Muscat may well have helped in creating a monster which has now spun out of his control. Surveys have consistently shown that migration now tops the concerns of Labour voters.

Muscat’s dramatic change in tone on migration – which includes a vague commitment to ban child migration – also reflects the reality of contesting under the European Socialist’s banner whose leader Martin Schultz made the case for legal migration in front of a crowd of Labour supporters used to consider migrants as a burden. While this was one of the most positive aspects of Labour campaign, the sudden change of heart may be disorienting to those who last year wanted to take to the streets to support Muscat’s pushback threat.

Moreover, while it is highly unlikely that Schultz will be the EU’s next Commission president, it is even unlikelier that all member states will accept Schultz’s proposal of a common migration policy where each of the 28 member states are obliged to share responsibility. In this sense, the emphasis given to Schultz’s speech on the Labour may lead to even greater disappointment in the future among Labour voters who are being groomed to demand ‘more Europe’ on migration and ‘less Europe’ on practically everything else, even on topics dear to the European Socialists, like the proposed tax on financial transactions to finance the EU’s budget. Moreover, by still emphasising the issue despite the decrease in arrivals, Labour continues to fuel the perception that migration is a do-or-die issue for the country. 

The stakes for the PN

The campaign has also brought the worse and the best of Busuttil.  He still appears unwilling to embark on any bold move like supporting the spring hunting referendum and he lost a once in a lifetime chance to send an unequivocally positive message to the gay community and liberal voters. Busuttil has certainly not taken any risks, which could further erode the party’s support among core traditional voters.

Busuttil’s hopes seem to hinge on Muscat dropping the ‘taghna lkoll’ mask. So far, the mask has fallen on a number of occasions without generating the wave of moral outrage expected by the PN. Partly to blame for this is the record of the past PN government, which has desensitised the nation to bad governance.

Still, the campaign has also stood testimony to the perseverance of a leader who a year ago assumed leadership of a sinking ship but who over the past months has been able to mount a solid – albeit negative – Opposition. In some ways, these elections have truly brought Busuttil out of his shell. While clearly not a natural in political theatre like Muscat, Busuttil has improved his delivery, and manages to contrast Muscat’s highly personalised and flamboyant style of leadership with a more collegial Opposition.

The PN’s decision not to put up any billboards may be dictated by the party’s poor finances, but it further serves the purpose of highlighting Labour’s dominant position and the PN’s position as an underdog.

In fact, the advantage for Busuttil in this campaign is that he starts the election as a severely injured underdog facing an adversary who retains an aura of invincibility. It is in this context that Busuttil is emphasising his party’s humility in contrast to Labour’s perceived arrogance.

This means that any reduction in Labour’s lead will consolidate Busuttil’s hold on his party. This certainly represents a very short-sighted approach. But for the PN, these elections are a matter of survival. In fact, Busuttil has put only one very realisable target for his party: that of electing three seats, which is the most likely outcome, according to experts. But Busuttil also knows that if Muscat manages to confirm the 2013 majority, his party will be served with a lethal blow. Therefore, he is doing everything possible to mobilise Nationalist voters while at the same time hoping for a low turnout of Labour voters. If this happens, he would have accomplished the undeclared goal of narrowing Labour’s lead and thus reinvigorating the party in the wake of last year’s drubbing. This will remove the perception that the PN is a lost cause, a factor weighing heavily on the party’s finances.

These elections are also a matter for survival for Alternattiva Demokratika, whose chances to elect a seat in the European Parliament remains small but which has seen an increase in support over the past weeks. Much will depend on whether those disillusioned by the current electoral set up will remain at home or turn out to vote for the greens. More difficult to foresee is support for the far right, which in the past has shown an ability to do better than predicted in surveys. 

All in all, although surveys seem to indicate two near-certainties – the election of three PN MEPs, and a Labour majority – the scale of Labour’s victory will depend on the whims of undecided voters-most of whom voted PL in the 2013 election, who are likely to make up their minds only in the last days of the campaign. 

And while both major parties may reach their declared goals, it is the size of the gap between the parties which will weigh heavily on the actions of government and Opposition in the next months and years.