Beyond the numbers… the winner is!

Almost every month, for the last 23 odd years, MaltaToday has published a political survey. 

We have always managed to determine who will be the winner and who will be the loser. On some occasions we have been precise in our predictions and in others less precise.   

The public reaction to the surveys has not changed. There are some who still believe we manipulate the numbers and the timing of the survey. Thankfully, that posse of people tend to be a variable group of people, depending on who the victor and loser is. 

Others are more dispassionate, read through our numbers with interest and a fair share of curiosity. 

I am rather thick-skinned and can take quite some bashing and criticism but to be accused of manipulating numbers; that is something I do not take lightly. And it requires repeating: We do not cook numbers. 

But beyond the numbers and their interpretations there is also a reality check that cannot be avoided. 

The qualms and actual infirmity in the Labour administration may be grave but not that severe to warrant a sudden change in government. 

Removing the Labour administration at this moment in time and replacing it with a Nationalist administration could happen but the question many will ask is whether this would be better for the country? 

Beyond the Roderick Galdes’s of this world—who should go—the planning reform fiasco, the legacy of Joseph Muscat and the endemic problems we continue to face, every level-headed individual knows that the Nationalist Party at this juncture does not have a competent team to administer this country. 

There are some capable individuals in the PN, but these are no match for the likes of Clyde Caruana, Ian Borg, Miriam Dalli, Jonathan Attard, Michael Falzon and Clifton Grima. 

Alex Borg, for all his charisma and good intentions, does not have the squad to shake the system and get it going. This is why he needs to start thinking of a technocratic line-up. Very few of his front-line shadow cabinet are leaving an impact.  And most of the electorate does not believe the PN can deliver. 

Robert Abela knows this. He knows that his team has a credible reputation and is taken seriously, especially by the business community, who have and continue to do extremely well, and the many salaried workers and families who still experience a good feel and are not asking much in return. 

Nonetheless, there are many considerations that worry people, including those who are doing well but are frustrated with the situation around them.    

None of these people are asking for a revolution. They do, however, want to see a change of heart. They want a sterling health system that is efficient and capable of delivering a reliable plan and solution to the uglification of our surroundings, and an end to tokenism. They want a recalibration of our economic tempo and respect for people’s intelligence. They have zero tolerance for political malfeasance. 

People get tired of politicians and get even more detached if they realise that their vote will not change anything. Which is why they decide not to vote at all. 

This explains why people declaring that they will not vote are on the increase. This is another reason why change needs to happen. 

A government, especially one that has been in office for more than 10  years, needs to reform by replacing people with more capable individuals and more importantly by addressing endemic problems which continue to haunt us. 

So, my take on surveys is what it has always been. They are an eye-opener, nothing else. 

If there is a segment of people who need to be addressed, it is the group that is arguing that they will not vote. This group is sending a message. The message is loud and clear and yet I do not see an efficient political riposte to them. 

The Labour Party needs to be more daring, more socially driven, more authentic and more responsive. 

The Nationalist Party needs to show it has the people capable of running the country. 

Which is why, as things stand, the Labour Party will win an election hands down, even if not by a big enough margin to govern comfortably. 

Either side cannot afford to lose.  

But achieving victory can only be realised if someone believes that side can offer continuity and reform; a calibration for the excesses that plague our country and a commitment to guarantee a quality of life in all senses. 

Numbers are what stars are for navigators—they point the way. Wise politicians will interpret them and take the cue.