Labour retains three-point lead despite Abela trust drop

SUMMARY

The first MaltaToday survey of the year shows the Labour Party retaining a three-point lead over the Nationalist Party, a picture that has remained relatively stable since October.

The PL enjoys the support of 48.9% of voters, the PN 45.7% and third parties collectively 5.4%. The gap between the two major parties translates into 9,262 votes.

However, the survey carried out in the first two weeks of January, also registers a drop in Prime Minister Robert Abela’s trust rating, from 45.2% to 41.3%. PN leader Alex Borg’s trust rating stands at 35.9%, a marginal increase of 0.6 points. The rise in respondents who trust neither leader may partly reflect political disengagement during the festive period.

The January survey also confirms that Labour is losing a larger share of its 2022 voters to abstention than the PN. While 13.9% of those who voted Labour in 2022 now say they intend not to vote, only 3.9% of former PN voters express the same intention. Although the survey points to a modest shift of voters from the PL to the PN, Labour’s prospects of recovering its past level of support hinge primarily on reconnecting with former PL voters who now intend to abstain.

VOTING INTENTIONS

Labour starts year with three-point lead and an abstention headache

The Labour Party still leads the Nationalist Party by a three-point margin that translates into 9,262 votes, in the first MaltaToday survey for 2026.

The PL support stands at 48.9% against the PN’s 45.7%. The third-party vote collectively stands at 5.4%. Compared to the last survey in November 2025, the PL gains 0.2 points, while the PN loses 0.4 points.

The result indicates that the gap between the parties has remained relatively the same since October, which was the first survey with Alex Borg as leader of the PN.

The latest results come from a survey of 813 respondents contacted over the first two weeks of January. Findings are based on a projected turnout of 81.1%, which is similar to that recorded in November.

Based on this projected turnout the PL is leading by 9,262 votes, up from a lead of 7,602 votes last November. However, this upward shift is statistically insignificant and falls squarely within the survey’s margin of error (+/-3.5 points). The characteristic of having the difference between the major parties falling within the margin of error has been a consistent feature since October, pointing towards a stabilisation of voter behaviour.

The survey coincided with widespread speculation of an early election. The prime minister has gone on record saying his intention is to present another budget in October before going to the polls in 2027. Nonetheless, he left a window open if “geopolitical disruptions” force him to “secure a new mandate”.

As was the case in November, the gap between the two main parties is similar to that in the 2024 MEP elections but a far cry from Labour’s 40,000-vote advantage in the 2022 general election.

The diminished gap is mostly explained by the greater percentage of 2022 PL voters, who now intend not to vote. Worryingly for the PL, the percentage of non-voters within its ranks has increased from 6.7% in June 2025 to 9.9% in October 2025, 11.8% in November and 13.9% now.

This suggests that Labour still struggles in its bid to recover disgruntled former voters and thus reassemble its super majority. This contrasts with the situation in the PN.

In a sign of renewed enthusiasm after Alex Borg took the party reins in his hands, the percentage of former PN voters who intend not to vote has fallen from 10.5% in June 2025 to 5% in October and November 2025 and 3.9% now.

Overall, the PN retains more of its 2022 votes than the PL does. While 86.7% of PN voters will confirm their support for the party if an election is held now, only 75.6% of PL voters will do likewise. Nonetheless, with the PN’s support having stabilised around the 46% mark in the polls since October, it remains to be seen whether the party has peaked too early or whether it still has the momentum to achieve further gains.

The survey also confirms the fragmentation of the third-party vote with ADPD and Momentum registering equal support—2.3% each.

Small shift from PL to PN 

The survey suggests that the PN has not only consolidated its core vote but is also making modest inroads among PL voters, as has been the case in previous surveys.

The January 2026 survey shows that while 8.6% of Labour voters in 2022 will now vote for the PN, while the PN is losing a smaller percentage (6%) of its 2022 voters to Labour. However, these gains are partly offset by greater PN losses to third parties. While the PL only loses 2% of its 2022 support to third parties the PN loses 3.5% of its voters to smaller parties. Labour also benefits from a small shift in its favour among 2022 non-voters—16.7% of non-voters will now vote PL and 14.8% will vote PN.

When taking into account the various shifts between parties and voter categories, the main factor behind the drop in the PL’s support since 2022 is the increase in abstention among its own voters.

This suggests that if these voters were to return to Labour’s fold, the incumbent party in government would enjoy a significantly more comfortable majority despite its losses to the PN.

PL leads in four regions out of six

The survey shows solid leads for the PL in the South Harbour (11.8 points) and South-eastern region (22.1 points). These regions include localities with historically solid PL majorities. But the PL also leads by five points in both the Northern and Western regions, which are traditionally more PN leaning.

The PN’s poor result in the Northern and Western regions is partly explained by a higher third-party vote—7.5% in the former and 6.5% in the latter.

Nonetheless, the PN is now leading by a substantial 11-point margin in the North Harbour region, a heterogenous region which includes PN strongholds in the 9th and 10th districts, Labour-leaning localities like Qormi and more balanced localities like Birkirkara.

The survey also suggests a tight race in Gozo, where the PN is leading by just 0.7 points.

It is important to note that results for regional and other demographic breakdowns are only indicative due to the substantially higher margin of error when numbers are split into subgroups. This also explains the at times substantial variations from one survey to the next.

Tight battle for younger voters 

The January survey also shows a tight race among under 35-year-olds, where the PL leads by less than a point. But Labour’s advantage increases to 3.4 points among 36- to 50-year-olds and 14.8 points among 51- to 65-year-olds. But in a reversal of previous trends, the PN leads by 5.7 points among pensioners.

The survey still shows a higher abstention rate among younger voters with 22.6% of 16- to 35-year-olds saying they will not vote. Likewise, 26.4% of 36- to 50-year-olds choose to abstain.

A breakdown by education shows the PL leading by 18 points among the secondary educated and by 30 points among those with a primary level of education, an indication of solid working class support for the Labour Party. In contrast, the PN leads by eight points among the post-secondary educated and by 18 points among the tertiary educated. Support for third parties is only significant among the tertiary educated, amongst which 11% will be voting for Momentum, ADPD or other parties.

TRUST BAROMETER

Abela registers four-point drop in trust barometer

Robert Abela is trusted with running the country by 41.3% of voters while Alex Borg scores 35.9% in a direct confrontation, MaltaToday’s first survey of 2026 shows.

Compared to November, Abela has lost 3.9 points, while Borg has gained 0.6 points. Abela’s losses correspond to a 3.3-point increase in those who trust neither of the two leaders.

The survey came in a period when both parties pushed their leaders to the fore to mark Borg’s 100-day anniversary in December and Abela’s six-year anniversary in January.

The result suggests that the lowering of political tensions during the Christmas period penalised Abela but did not result in any significant gains for Borg. The holiday disengagement from politics reflected in the higher percentage of voters who trust neither of the two leaders with running the country.  

The survey also shows that both leaders are trusted by the vast majority of their respective party voters. Abela enjoys the trust of 94% of current PL voters, while Borg enjoys the trust of 87.6% of PN voters. This outcome partly explains why Borg is more trusted than his predecessor Bernard Grech who was trusted by less than 60% of PN voters.

The survey also shows that current non-voters are more likely to trust Abela than Borg.  While the vast majority of current non-voters (72.4%) trust neither of the two leaders, 12.1% trust Borg and 15.5% trust Abela. This suggests that Labour has more space to grow in the next months among non-voters who prefer Abela to run the country. But compared to previous surveys this space has become more restricted as the percentage of non-voters, who trust Abela has declined from 32.3% in November to 15.5% now.

Moreover, Borg is also making inroads among PL 2022 voters. Within this category, 10.6% trust Borg more than Abela. This is slightly higher than the percentage of PL voters who will now vote for the PN (8.6%). In contrast, amongst PN 2022 voters only 3.6% trust Abela more than Borg even if 6% will vote Labour in a forthcoming election. This suggests that while former PN voters shifting to Labour do not necessarily trust Abela, those migrating from the PL to the PN are more likely to trust Borg.

Abela leads in four out of six regions

The survey shows Abela leading Borg by substantial margins in the South-eastern region (30.6 points) and South Harbour (10.8 points).  Significantly, Abela also leads by 11.5 points in the traditionally PN-leaning Northern region and by 2.3 points in the Western region. 

Borg is trusted to lead the country more than Abela in only two regions—his home district, Gozo, where the PN leader leads the prime minister by just 1.7 points, and the North Harbour region where Borg leads by 7.3 points.

These results suggest a very tight race for the Gozo district where the PN is also leading by just under a percentage point.

These breakdowns are only indicative due to a considerably higher margin of error among sub groups but largely confirm trends in previous surveys. Compared to November, Abela has improved his trust rating in Gozo from 35% to 40.2%.

Abela more trusted by all age groups 

The survey also shows Abela leading in all age groups. Among 16- to 35-year-olds, Abela leads Borg by seven points even though when it comes to voting intentions, his party leads by less than a point. This suggests that Labour has more room to grow among younger voters, who trust Abela but are still intent on not voting. This may be an important consideration for Labour strategists focusing on translating Abela’s appeal among young people into a vote for the incumbent government.

Abela also leads Borg by 4.5 points among 36- to 50-year-olds and by 10.4 points among those aged between 51 and 65. But the gap is reduced to less than a point among pensioners. The survey shows Abela enjoying the same level of trust among men and women (41%) while Borg is slightly more trusted by men. A breakdown by educational achievement shows that a relative majority of tertiary educated voters (37.5%) trust neither political leader. On the other hand, only 26.8% in this category trust Abela while 35.7% trust Borg. This suggests a disconnection between Abela and tertiary educated respondents, which Labour needs to address.

Abela remains considerably more trusted than Borg among the primary and secondary educated, which could reflect widespread working class support for Labour’s social and fiscal policies. In contrast Borg is more trusted among those with a post-secondary education, another pivotal category in which Labour had made considerable inroads in the past decade.

PERFORMANCE BAROMETER

Government gets satisfactory 3.2 rating

The government’s approval rating has remained satisfactory and stable, registering a statistically insignificant 0.1-point increase from the rating it received in November. 

As in previous surveys respondents were asked to rate the “government led by Robert Abela” on a scale of 0 (very bad) to 5 (very good).  And once again the government manages to surpass the 2.5 pass mark with flying colours. The only segment giving the government a fail is PN voters.

A breakdown by age shows the government enjoying its highest rating among over 51- to 65-year-olds (3.3) and its lowest among those aged 36 to 50 (3.1).

On a regional level, the government’s rating ranges from a notably high score of 3.6 in the South-eastern region and 3.4 in Gozo, to 3 in the North Harbour region.

Not surprisingly, current PN voters give the government the lowest rating (2.2) and current Labour voters the highest (4.2).   

The government also manages to get over the pass mark among current non-voters, who give the administration a positive rating of 2.7.

A breakdown by educational background shows the government registering the highest score among respondents with a primary level of education (3.6) and the lowest among those with a tertiary education (2.9).