[ANALYSIS] Will Robert Abela call a June election?

Without fixed-term parliaments, Malta’s general election is always the prime minister’s prerogative, giving him the power to hold an election according to political convenience.

While most Maltese governments have served full terms, elections have been called ahead of time in 1996 under Eddie Fenech Adami, and in 2017 by Muscat, in the absence of any threat to the government’s parliamentary majority.

The 1998 general election was called three years ahead because of Dom Mintoff’s rebellion against Alfred Sant’s one-seat majority.

Historically the last Labour government to serve a full term was the one voted out of office in 1987.

Robert Abela, who criticised the PN for holding a leadership election in the middle of the pandemic, has hinted that he intends serving a full term till 2022.

“I find no reason why we should go for an early election… it would be irresponsible to go for an election in the middle of a pandemic and likewise it would be irresponsible to do so in the middle of a recovery,” Abela said back in October on TVM’s Xtra.

But this has not stopped the rumour mill in view of his commitment to restore the country to “normality” by May, even if the vaccine roll-out for the general public starts then and herd immunity will only be achieved in summer.

The feel-good factor from the COVID-19 recovery

Abela is forecasting the start of economic recovery for March 2021 and that the country will return to “business as usual” by May – but that depends on an efficient roll-out and take-up of the vaccine.

Pandemics are always hard to predict and Abela will not call an election before a drastic reduction in infections is registered.

His optimism has already been disproved during the summer in which COVID-19 hit back.

But if his plan for normality does go ahead as expected, he could bank on that optimism to ask the electorate to reward his government’s performance.

Despite its hiccups and an increase in deaths in autumn, Abela managed to avoid major job losses and a health system that stayed resilient in the face of adversity.

Electoral legitimacy after inheriting the Muscat mandate

Despite his determination to give his own stamp to the administration inherited from Joseph Muscat with a second Cabinet reshuffle in November, Abela lacks the electoral mandate to consolidate his hold within his party.

A new mandate will give him the power to take decisions that can put him on a collision course with Muscat on such developments as the Caruana Galizia assassination probe and spin-offs from Panamagate.

A June election could even be an indication that Abela is expecting bad news on this front. While few would doubt his ability to win the next election, holding on to the same margin of victory as in 2017 could be more difficult.

Winning like Muscat despite the two-term itch, which has penalised every post-war administration, would be a considerable feat. To replicate these electoral victories would mean choosing only the most favourable timing.

Bernard Grech with less time to consolidate standing in PN

A June election piles pressure on Bernard Grech, who is still consolidating his grip on the PN after being elected leader three months ago.

Polls show Grech has managed to reunite his party and recover the support it enjoyed in 2017, but he has made no headway among those who voted Labour back then.

Losing by the same margin in an election would be a demoralising blow for the Nationalists and it will give Robert Abela the honeymoon he was denied from the toxic fall-out of the Muscat government and COVID-19.

With a strong majority, Abela would also be in a stronger position to deal with a less promising economic situation and the contradictory demands from Labour’s electoral bloc on controversial issues such as the environment and land use which may have a bearing on post-COVID recovery.

Postponing drastic post-COVID decisions after victory

Major credit agencies forecast a quick recovery for Malta, but Abela might consider the cloudy future of Air Malta and the Moneyval verdict and its impact on financial services.

Tourism might take longer to return to prosperity. The new wage supplements expire in March so much depends on the economy picking up steam within the next months.

Labour’s social spend depends on the returns of economic growth, without increased taxation. But reigniting the economic engine could come with controversy if he chooses the Muscat formula of over-reliance on construction and foreign labour.

An early election could signal apprehension for the future, backfiring by creating greater uncertainty: why go for an election when he can give more in a post-pandemic Budget?

Missing out on a post-COVID budget in October

Abela’s last budget was conditioned by the pandemic, so if his optimistic 2021 forecast is correct, it only makes sense for him not to hold an early election and proceed to present his first ‘normal’ budget in October 2021.

The budget could be even more generous and therefore become a launching pad for a 2022 election. That budget could target more pockets of discontentment before the country goes to the polls and give his new finance minister Clyde Caruana a chance to prove his worth before the next election.

Like Sant and Muscat, Abela would not complete a whole term

Abela may be keen on ditching the perception that Labour is unable to complete a full term, something which eluded past Labour leaders like Alfred Sant and Joseph Muscat.

If the economy is on track for full recovery, he could still win big in 2022, which means he has little reason for an early election.

But rumours of an imminent election would keep the Opposition on edge and unable to focus on the internal reforms it needs to carry out before a 2022 campaign. Rather than seriously considering an early election, Labour may be keener on keeping the Opposition guessing.

Election campaign could derail economic recovery

It makes little sense to derail business activity at a strategic juncture when the country should be focusing on recovery.

Abela may opt for the shortest campaign possible after the Easter recess but it would still risk putting the country on hold for nearly a month, to the displeasure of suffering businesses.

Abela would be fighting an outsider in Bernard Grech whose campaigning skills are yet to be tested. Conventional wisdom suggests Abela would be better off fending such a challenge after a generous budget, making a June election unlikely.

Achieving herd immunity

It is extremely unlikely for Abela to call an election before a substantial percentage of the population is vaccinated and herd immunity is not likely to be achieved before summer.

The vaccine will only made available for the entire population at the end of April or the beginning of May. This on its own would exclude a June election and point towards an election after the next budget.

However, the vaccination timeframes announced last week could be brought forward if the European Medicines Agency authorises the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine of which Malta has one million ordered doses.

Whether a third vaccine option will help achieve herd immunity so much earlier than expected depends on the government’s capacity to step up inoculations but also on the delivery rate of vaccines by the pharma companies.