Meat and juice prices drive grocery bills higher

Households are continuing to feel the squeeze at the supermarket as food prices fluctuate, with staples like meat and everyday refreshments emerging as key drivers of inflation.

A recent report by the Central Bank of Malta shows that although overall food inflation averaged 3.2% in 2025, a surge in unprocessed food prices that reached 6.5% in December, has kept household budgets under strain.

The strongest upward pressure on grocery bills has come from the butcher’s counter. Meat alone added 0.2 percentage points to the overall inflation rate, reflecting global trends that kept international meat prices elevated, with a 6.1% annual increase recorded by January 2026.

Local beef prices rose particularly sharply, outpacing the euro area average by 5.1 percentage points. Other meat types, such as poultry, also saw faster price growth in Malta than in the rest of the euro area.

Shoppers have also encountered unexpectedly steep increases in the beverage aisle. Fruit and vegetable juices registered the highest average inflation rate in Malta during 2025, climbing at more than twice the pace seen across the euro area. Other everyday staples—milk, cheese, eggs and confectionery—also contributed to the rising cost burden.

The analysis, prepared by senior economist Maria Christine Saliba, highlights how Malta’s price dynamics differed from those elsewhere in the currency bloc.

While Malta recorded 3.2% food inflation in 2025 compared with the euro area’s 2.8%, other countries were more affected by a sharp 17.3% spike in coffee prices. Malta’s increase in coffee prices was more moderate.

Signs of easing ahead

There are tentative indications that price pressures may gradually ease. Retailers’ expectations for future increases have fallen sharply from their 2022 peaks to levels closer to long-term norms. Although expectations edged up slightly in January 2026, the broader trend suggests the most volatile phase may have passed.

The central bank projects a gradual moderation in the coming years, forecasting unprocessed food inflation of 3.5% and processed food inflation of 3.1% by 2028. This cooling outlook is expected to be supported by slower growth in international meat prices. While short-term uncertainty remains, analysts say the era of dramatic price spikes appears to be giving way to a period of steadier normalisation.

The analysis is based on Recent Dynamics In Food Inflation, a specialised study featured in the Central Bank’s Outlook for the Maltese Economy, prepared by Saliba within the bank’s Economic Projections and Conjunctural Analysis Office.