The battle for Gozo

Labour's decision to hold its first mass meeting in Gozo - a district last won by Labour in 1955 - confirms that this district plays a strategic role in Labour's electoral plans.

In August, a MaltaToday survey confirmed the tight race for the Gozo district, which sees both parties with a chance of winning Gozo's third seat. 

An extrapolation of the survey results showed Labour heading for an unprecedented absolute majority after winning a relative majority in the 2009 elections for the European Parliament.

Compared to the 2008 general election, the PN has lost nine percentage points, while Labour gains 9.1.

But the district remains in the balance because of a prevalence of former PN voters among those who either intend not to vote or are still undecided.

In fact the survey showed the PN enjoying a slight 0.5-point lead over Labour if it recovers voters who voted PN in 2008 but now intend not to vote or who did not reveal their voting intention.

But the major worry for the PN remains the haemorrhage of votes from its 2008 vote base.

The survey shows the PN losing 11% of its 2008 voters directly to Labour. On the other hand, only 1% of Labour voters now intend voting for the PN.  This represents a massive 10-point swing in favour of Labour, which confirms the national 9-point swing.

Gozo's strategic value

Labour has not won a majority in any general election in the Gozo district since 1955.

Labour's support in general elections between 1971 and 2008 had always hovered between 40% and 46%.

With the notable exception of 1987, Labour always ended up winning the general elections when it secured more than 45% of the Gozitan vote.

Following a fluke victory in Gozo in 1955, the party was nearly wiped out from the conservative island at the height of the Church-State dispute, gaining just 6.3% of the Gozitan vote in the 1962 election and 22% in the 1966 election.

But after the Maltese Church lifted its moral sanctions on Labour activists in 1969, the party managed to double its vote, scoring 44.8% in 1971.

Support for the PL was to slip again by 5% in the following decade, with the party registering one of its worst ever Gozitan results in the 1981 election.

Surprisingly, led by incumbent prime minister Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici, the party scored its best ever general election result in 1987 with 46% of the vote in Gozo - a result which reflected the party's power of incumbency, which was not to be repeated until Alfred Sant's victory in 1996.

But after being elected to power in 1987, it was the PN which managed to increase its majority in Gozo by five percentage points from 1987 to 1992 thanks to an economic boom and the setting up of a Gozo Ministry led by Anton Tabone.

Labour saw its share of the vote increase by 5% in the 1996 election. The premature fall of Alfred Sant's government saw the party losing three points in Gozo against four points nationally - an indication that the party fared better in Gozo than in the rest of Malta.

The 2003 election saw Labour losing a further two points, dipping to 40.8% - its worst result in Gozo since 1992. This corresponded with a strong affirmation of the 'Yes' vote in the EU referendum.

Yet, the luck of the Nationalists took another nosedive after unemployment started to rear its ugly head again. But the 2008 election saw no remarkable shift to Labour. In this election, Labour won 42.9% of the Gozitan vote - an increase of two percentage points over its 2003 tally.

Labour had actually recovered its 1998 level of support, but its result was still 3% below the 46% gained in 1996.

The PL's relative majority in the June 2009 MEP elections represented the party's best result in Gozo since the 1955 general election.

But Labour's success came in the wake of a drop in turnout from 92% in the March 2008 general election, to just 77% in last June's MEP elections. This may well be an indication that a number of Nationalist Gozitan voters may well have abstained rather than switched party in these elections.

The battle of the candidates

MaltaToday's latest survey in Gozo did not suggest any change in the current line-up of MPs if the PN thwarts Labour's bid for a third Gozitan seat.

Although the survey showed Labour newcomer Franco Mercieca, a respected ophthalmologist, making a strong showing in his first electoral experience, he still trailed second place to Justyne Caruana by nine points. While 18% of Labour voters intend to vote for the eye specialist, 27% intend to vote for Caruana. Anton Refalo leads the race with 30%.

But although Refalo starts the race as the PL's frontrunner, Justyne Caruana is more trusted than the Labour veteran as an MP.

On the PN front, Gozo Minister Giovanna Debono confirmed her standing as the party's front-runner, 16 points ahead of Social Policy Minister Chris Said. Frederick Azzopardi is far behind the Cabinet members, attracting the support of a mere 4% of PN voters. But in the past, Azzopardi succeeded in attracting enough second and third preferences to get elected.

Although Said has not managed to dent Giovanna Debono's electoral lead, he trailed the Gozo Minister by just two points, as Gozo's second most trusted MP among all voters.    

In fact, Said managed to attract the respect of a number of Labour voters. In an indication of his ability to reach out to voters on the other side, he is considered to be the most trusted MP by 6% of Labour voters.

Significantly, although Labour enjoyed a small lead over the PN in Gozo, its current MPs were only trusted by 25% of voters, while 33% of Gozitan respondents put their trust in Nationalist MPs.

This suggests that Labour needs a strong high profile candidature to boost its chances of winning the district.

Moreover, while Labour MPs enjoy the trust of only 1% of Nationalist voters, the three Nationalist MPs enjoy the trust of a tenth of Labour voters.

The survey suggested that the PN starts the race with an advantage over Labour, that of having two widely respected heavyweights like Giovanna Debono and Chris Said as its frontrunners. Both seem to outshine Labour's two sitting MPs.

The outsiders

One notable absence in the PN's list is the party executive president Marthese Portelli, the fourth most-voted candidate in the PN's list in 2008. Also absent is Robert Tabone. Newcomers include Rabat mayor Samuel Azzopardi and Kevin Cutajar, founder and PRO of the Gozo Aid for Visually impaired and PRO on the council of the Gozo NGOs Association.

On Labour's list, Xaghra mayor Joseph Cordina will be contesting again after winning 1,517 votes in 2008. 

Cordina was the third most voted Labour candidate in 2008.

Newcomers include George Paul Camilleri, a 52-year old Gozitan artist hailing from a Nationalist background.

Alternattiva Demokratika, which won 1.2% of the Gozitan vote in the 2008 election when the party fielded its former general secretary Victor Galea, will now be fielding David Camilleri, a US-based Gozitan artist and environmentalist, known for his anti-hunting stunts.