51 points… for 51%?

Is this a case of a statesman who wants to lead by example, or a populist only interested in the magical 51%?

KEY PHRASES                                                                     Times Mentioned: 

‘Ma sar xejn’ (Nothing has been done)                                         39

‘Ghaqal  (Prudence)                                                                           30

‘Gvern immexxi minni’ (A government led by me)                   21

‘Hadd ma jista jemmnek’ (Nobody can believe you)                21

‘Stabbilita’ (stable government)                                                    9

Wearing a dark blue tie and projecting a more sombre, albeit stiffer image than usual, Opposition Leader Joseph Muscat made a significant effort to project the opposition as a government in waiting, constantly referring to what “a government led by me” will do.

This amplifies the personalisation of politics, which could see Labour contesting the next election on its equivalent of the PN’s GonziPN strategy in 2008.

Yet if elected Muscat like Gonzi will not be governing alone and will have to pick a cabinet made up of those MPs who were applauding him on Monday. 

Responding to criticism that Labour is short on alternative policies, he came out 51 proposals, 21 of which can be described as vague wishes or intentions and only 15 qualify by some stretch of imagination as concrete measures.

In another clear indication of Muscat’s strategy to turn the election in to a presidential contest, was a concerted attempt to attack the credibility of Lawrence Gonzi through the continued reference to broken promises and the continued phrase “nobody can believe you.”

Muscat poses legitimate questions on how the government reached its deficit targets by reducing expenditure on capital projects but Gonzi success in weathering the international crisis impoverishing other countries, makes Muscat’s task daunting.

One clear target group for Muscat are small businesses and developers, traditionally a pro Nationalist category that were mentioned a number of times in Muscat’s speech. In fact eight of the 51 proposals target these categories directly.

A government in waiting?

Rather than focusing on a few concrete policy directions as he did last year, Muscat chose to say something, which could appeal to every sector of the electorate.

This contrasted with the blitz by the government in last week’s budget, which targeted particular social classes at the exclusion of others.

What is sure is that his 51 proposals are bereft of any painful measures except for the reduction of his own and other Minister’s salaries in a future labour cabinet-an effective policy stunt which keeps the damning honoraria issue high on the political agenda, but which has no bearing on the country’s economy.

This contrasts with a bleak international scenario where even in relatively prosperous Poland, the newly elected Tusk administration is proposing austerity measures like an increase in pension age, aimed at tackling public debt. 

In a completely opposite direction Muscat commits himself on retaining the present pension age, strengthen the “stipend system” whatever that means and reduce interests rates for tax dodgers.  Significantly Muscat lambastes the increases in NI for high-income earners, which came as a result of a pension reform approved in parliament in 2006.

Interestingly both government and opposition have avoided mentioning the second pillar pension on which the sustainability of our pension system depends.

Neither does Muscat propose any measure to generate revenue for government to finance any increase in social spending resulting from such measures as the increase in maternity rate, “strengthen” the stipend system and encourage female employment.

In short Muscat makes maximum use of shock statistics like the €400,000 debt accumulated by government every day without hinting at how he would reduce this debt.

None of the 51 proposals address this issue.

To Muscat’s advantage, the government itself has embarked on a more risky path, due to the fact that the government itself is projecting a 2.3% economic growth rate in very bleak times while contemplating tax cuts targeted mainly at its middle class constituency.

Muscat’s only direct reference to the international crisis was to question the government’s preparedness for a deterioration of the Euro zone crisis.

Muscat comes out stronger in non economic issues, projecting a more secular and inclusive style of government through measures like the introduction of civil unions for gay partners, even if these matters have very little to do with the budget.  But in this way Muscat is putting the PN’s late conversion to secular politics to the test.

Vague wish list?

Twenty-one of the proposals made by Muscat yesterday can be described as completely vague and lacking in any substance: like a “more secure” environment for businesses.  It is difficult how a proposal “to put youth before bureaucracy” or to give “importance to agriculture” can actually qualify as a proposal made by a government in waiting, except to highlight the shortcomings of the government in various sectors. 

One notable reference, not reflected in the 51 proposals, is to make water management – a topic ignored in the budget – a priority for a future Labour government. But this was not accompanied by any concrete proposal to put a price on ground water exploitation.

Surely one has to recognise the difference between an Opposition Leader who does not have a full picture of government finances and a Prime Minister with the full power of incumbency. 

What is usually expected from the opposition is a direction in policy.  For example back in 2010, everyone in the United Kingdom knew that David Cameron stood for cuts rather than more spending while Labour stood for a softer approach on cuts.

But even some of the policy directions proposed by Muscat send mixed messages.  For example when he speaks of “talking straight to both environmentalists and developers” to identify “national priorities,” he fails to illuminate us on what “priorities” he is speaking about.  Muscat’s ambiguity leaves room for speculation and fuels the perception that the opposition is cementing an unholy alliance with some building contractors, which flies in the face of the party’s supposedly progressive agenda.

His criticism of MEPA-going as far as saying that it is even worse than ever before- fails to acknowledge that the authority is now less tolerant of ODZ developments.

Muscat hints at more car parks in one proposal and better traffic management to address congestion in another proposal, ignoring the fact that the greater availability of car parks could actually increase the number of cars on the road.

One of the few left-wing commitments, which needs to be beefed up, is that of ensuring that government contracts are not given to companies, which do not respect workers’ rights, thus addressing a growing problem, which is eroding the standard of living of thousands of workers.  But Muscat falls short of any commitment to raise the minimum wage or even any reference to the “living wage” concept proposed last year.

What energy policy?

One of Muscat’s most worthy proposals is the setting up an Energy Ministry-a post currently split between Finance Minister Tonio Fenech, Resources Minister George Pullicino and parliamentary secretary Mario De Marco.  

The lack of planning in this sector led to a postponement of the gas option, which restricted the government’s choice to one between diesel and heavy fuel oil. 

Gonzi’s admission that the interconnector will not be in operation before the next election is emblematic of the lack of forward planning in this fundamental issue.

One of Muscat’s firm commitments is to substitute the use of Heavy Fuel Oil first with gas-oil and than with gas.

This suggests political consensus on the long-term goal of shifting to gas.

But while speaking of “cheaper” gas, Muscat does not factor in the expenditure to create the infrastructure to make this option possible-an expenditure which either has to be reflected in the bills paid by consumers or in Enemalta’s debts.

Muscat vaguely hinted that a government led by him would consider a new “green” technological process proposed by a private company in its bid to reduce bills but fell short on technical details.

In fact apart from the hint that a future Labour government would show greater interest in new technologies, there was very little beef on how Labour will decrease the tariffs.

That said the introduction of a ‘night tariff’ is a very interesting proposal as it could shift the country’s energy load to hours where the power station’s engines are still in operation but are providing for less demand.

On the other hand Muscat’s promises to reduce the factoring in of Enemalta “return on capital” costs-which include interests paid on the loan to build the new power station and interconnector may well reduce tariffs but could shift the burden to Enemalta. Significantly Muscat’s speech is bereft of any reference to solar and wind energy, which are by far the cleanest sources of energy in the world.

Muscat’s populist alternative

The budget has provided the government with an effective political narrative by galvanising middle class support through targeted measures which have an economic logic of their own like encouraging mothers to remain in employment while injecting greater spending in the next months.

On his part Muscat avoided presenting a clear alternative economic blueprint. Neither did he feel the need of standing for Labour’s own working class constituency, which was largely, sidelines by the budget. Ultimately Muscat’s message hinges on distrust pf the present government, populist promises and the need for a change after a quarter of a century of one party government.

COLUMN DOWN THE SIDE

Vague Wish list

1. Less bureaucracy for self employed.

2. A more secure government for businesses.

3. Ensure that energy from interconnector is bought at the best rate

4. Key to addressing pension reform will be economic growth

5. Remove anomalies in pensions

6. “innovative initiatives” to address aging population

7. “Youth before bureaucracy. What is promised to them should be implemented.”

8. Private sector to be a strategic partner in all important projects

9. Industry to play a more important role in economic growth plan

10. Greater support for industry to attract investment

11. Local investors to be treated in the same way as foreigners

12. More ambitious vision for Air Malta

13. Airmalta to be put at the centre of tourism industry

14. Make tourism a main pillar of economic growth

15. Greater investment in tourism

16. Green economy as an opportunity to create jobs

17. Gozo as “an economic engine” set to create “jobs for Gozitans”

18. Due importance to agriculture and fishing industries

19. Better service and less waiting for citizens in the court

20. Greater security in entertainment places

21. Councils to be on the “side of families and not on the side of bureaucracy|”

Concrete measures resulting in less revenue/more spending

1. Decrease interests on VAT arrears

2. Four extra weeks of maternity leave

3. Retirement age to remain at 65

4. Stipend system to be “strengthened”

5. No burdens on tourism industry

6. More resources for family court

7. Reduce factoring in of Enemalta’s capital costs in bills.

Concrete spending cuts

1. 500 a week rise to ministers to be axed immediately

Concrete revenue neutral measures

1. Rights for cohabiting couples

2. Civil unions for gay partners

3. IVF law

4. Appointment of energy minister responsible for the country’s energy policy

5. Introduce patient rights bill and anticipate EU directive limiting waiting time for operations

6. Amending laws which violate human rights conventions

7. A place in the MCESD to Forum Unions Maltin and Gozitan Chamber of Commerce

8. Trade union rights for those working in police

Innovative Policy Direction

1. A generational shift in taxation from one penalising incomes to one penalising the environment “without increasing tax burden.”

2. Plan to convert power station from HFO to cleaner gas

3. Different night energy tariffs

4. Facilitate company mergers and acquisitions

5. No contracts to be given to companies, which do not respect workers’ rights

6. A mechanism for the payment of political office holders 

7. Incentivise the creation of a second university through investment from foreign institutions

Vague Policy Directions

1. Reduce electricity bills in a “realistic and sustainable way.”

2. Greater consideration for parking for residents and businesses

3. The local guardian system should not remain a “racket” subsidised by citizens but to focus on serious enforcement

4. “Improvement” in parental leave

5. Incentives for third pillar private pensions

6. Plan to reduce dropouts from education system

7. Priority to be given to completion of MCAST campus project

8. Prioritise traffic management strategies

9. “Straight forward approach with developers and environmentalists in identifying priorities without loss of time.”

10. An incentive plan to encourage women to work