[ANALYSIS] Could the ‘Daphne crowd’ be a party in the making?

Attracting hundreds of people to events not sanctioned by any of the two major parties is no mean feat and the fact that more people attend monthly vigils for Caruana Galizia than official PN activities speaks for itself. One should not underestimate the outrage generated by the murder of a prominent journalist and agenda setter, which turned previously invisible normal citizens into activists.

But the movement’s strength can also be attributed to its attachment to the PN faction which remains loyal to former leader Simon Busuttil who despite leading his party to a colossal defeat in 2017 has managed to give thousands of PN voters a battle cry and a sense of purpose.

A year after the assassination, movements like Occupy Justice and Kenniesa, have become protagonists in a more fragmented Opposition. The movement which enjoys the blessing of the Caruana Galizia family has also found an astute political spokesman in Manuel Delia, a former official in Austin Gatt’s secretariat and a PN candidate in 2013 who is well learned in the trappings of Maltese politics, who has now reinvented himself as the voice of dissent through a widely read blog.

In Daphne Caruana Galizia the movement has also found a martyr and an effective narrative summed by the journalist’s last blog post “that there are crooks everywhere you look.” It is also gelled by antagonism towards Joseph Muscat and his government and the group’s militancy is boosted each time Caruana Galizia’s memory is tarnished. Ironically the removal of flowers from the makeshift shrine on numerous occasions during the past months has served to reinforce the narrative of persecution which keeps the flame of rebellion alive.

Frontline: activist Manuel Delia (left), a former Nationalist government and once PN candidate aide, and (right) anthropologist Ranier Fsadni, a former advisor to prime minister Lawrence Gonzi

The limits of the movement

But despite attracting hundreds of people to its regular activities, the movement has not managed to reach out beyond a restricted segment in society mainly consisting of people who adored Caruana Galizia and who mainly hail from the upper middle-class and have traditionally voted for the PN.

This represents the movement’s greatest weakness. For although the sense of outrage at the murder was shared by a wider number of people, many do not share the movement’s zeal in blaming government for the murder or its reverence for Caruana Galizia.

Neither can the movement take on the mantle of an anti-corruption movement, since its focus is largely limited in range to Caruana Galizia’s targets and unlike other civil society groups like Graffiti – that vigorously fight for specific causes and well defined issues – this movement is chiefly motivated by antagonism towards the government. A more inclusive movement calling for institutional reforms in the aftermath of the assassination may well have had a wider appeal especially among the Labour leaning segment of the population. But probably it would have been less cohesive.

Nationalist MPs Simon Busuttil, the former Opposition leader, and ally Karol Aquilina

The problem for the PN

In this way the movement does not represent any direct threat to Labour’s hegemony on society. On the other hand it represents a challenge to Adrian Delia’s leadership in the PN. Although the PN leader has recently taken significant steps to reach out to this category, his efforts often meet a wall of defiance as was the case when a wreath laid by Adrian Delia at the makeshift memorial dedicated to Daphne Caruana Galizia was put aside and replaced by a poster with the journalist’s last words.

This raises the question; will this movement ever develop into a political party, possibly serving as a refuge for the anti-Delia faction in the PN possibly in alliance with the Democratic Party in a re-edition of the Forza Nazzjonali of 2017? One crucial factor is that despite the ability to mobilise crowds, the movement’s electoral reach may be too limited to sustain the political ambitions of MPs who aspire to keep their seats in parliament. The prospect of being held responsible for splitting the PN vote and thus bolstering Labour’s majority militates against the party option. In this sense the only opportunity for such a movement would be next year’s MEP election where Malta is counted as one district. But even this would come at the cost of weakening the Opposition, possibly reducing the official PN to one seat.

Remembering the first anniversary of the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia

Waiting for defeat?

In his speech to the crowd on Tuesday Manuel Delia has given some clues on the movement’s future, which without entering the electoral fray may live on to condition the debate in the PN.

Delia made it clear the movement is here to stay, irrespective of whether “victory is in reach or not” because the most important thing according to him is “being true to oneself.” He knows that no political party can afford to do that. Moreover, this may come as a recognition that the movement is not in synch with the popular mood.

By making a direct reference to the ransacking of Eddie Fenech Adami’s house by Labour thugs he also grounded his movement in the Nationalist Party’s history. “The fight for justice did not start last year,” Delia said, adding that those who fought for justice back then feared that what they had campaigned for could be lost.

By remaining a moral force to contend with, the movement may use its influence to back individual candidates in the forthcoming MEP election. But it may also wield even greater influence if the party is trounced in this election and Delia’s leadership is put in question once again. Meanwhile, however, if they remain hostile to Delia they also risk being blamed for the defeat. This realisation may result in a long truce which leaves the party torn between those who want the party to revert back to Busuttil’s antics which failed the electoral test and those who want to move on along Delia’s unpredictable ‘new way’.